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Hour-Ahead Wind Speed and Power Forecasting Using Empirical Mode Decomposition

Author

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  • Ying-Yi Hong

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, Chung Yuan Christian University, 200 Chung Pei Road, Chung Li 320, Taiwan)

  • Ti-Hsuan Yu

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, Chung Yuan Christian University, 200 Chung Pei Road, Chung Li 320, Taiwan)

  • Ching-Yun Liu

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, Chung Yuan Christian University, 200 Chung Pei Road, Chung Li 320, Taiwan)

Abstract

Operation of wind power generation in a large farm is quite challenging in a smart grid owing to uncertain weather conditions. Consequently, operators must accurately forecast wind speed/power in the dispatch center to carry out unit commitment, real power scheduling and economic dispatch. This work presents a novel method based on the integration of empirical mode decomposition (EMD) with artificial neural networks (ANN) to forecast the short-term (1 h ahead) wind speed/power. First, significant parameters for training the ANN are identified using the correlation coefficients. These significant parameters serve as inputs of the ANN. Owing to the volatile and intermittent wind speed/power, the historical time series of wind speed/power is decomposed into several intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and a residual function through EMD. Each IMF becomes less volatile and therefore increases the accuracy of the neural network. The final forecasting results are achieved by aggregating all individual forecasting results from all IMFs and their corresponding residual functions. Real data related to the wind speed and wind power measured at a wind-turbine generator in Taiwan are used for simulation. The wind speed forecasting and wind power forecasting for the four seasons are studied. Comparative studies between the proposed method and traditional methods ( i.e. , artificial neural network without EMD, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), and persistence method) are also introduced.

Suggested Citation

  • Ying-Yi Hong & Ti-Hsuan Yu & Ching-Yun Liu, 2013. "Hour-Ahead Wind Speed and Power Forecasting Using Empirical Mode Decomposition," Energies, MDPI, vol. 6(12), pages 1-16, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:6:y:2013:i:12:p:6137-6152:d:30731
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. So-Kumneth Sim & Philipp Maass & Pedro G. Lind, 2018. "Wind Speed Modeling by Nested ARIMA Processes," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-18, December.
    3. Gangqiang Li & Huaizhi Wang & Shengli Zhang & Jiantao Xin & Huichuan Liu, 2019. "Recurrent Neural Networks Based Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-17, July.
    4. Hufang Yang & Zaiping Jiang & Haiyan Lu, 2017. "A Hybrid Wind Speed Forecasting System Based on a ‘Decomposition and Ensemble’ Strategy and Fuzzy Time Series," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-30, September.
    5. Nima Amjady & Oveis Abedinia, 2017. "Short Term Wind Power Prediction Based on Improved Kriging Interpolation, Empirical Mode Decomposition, and Closed-Loop Forecasting Engine," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-18, November.
    6. Prasad, Ramendra & Ali, Mumtaz & Kwan, Paul & Khan, Huma, 2019. "Designing a multi-stage multivariate empirical mode decomposition coupled with ant colony optimization and random forest model to forecast monthly solar radiation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 778-792.
    7. Ana Lagos & Joaquín E. Caicedo & Gustavo Coria & Andrés Romero Quete & Maximiliano Martínez & Gastón Suvire & Jesús Riquelme, 2022. "State-of-the-Art Using Bibliometric Analysis of Wind-Speed and -Power Forecasting Methods Applied in Power Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-40, September.
    8. Namrye Son & Seunghak Yang & Jeongseung Na, 2019. "Hybrid Forecasting Model for Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Using Modified Long Short-Term Memory," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-17, October.
    9. Dongxiao Niu & Yi Liang & Wei-Chiang Hong, 2017. "Wind Speed Forecasting Based on EMD and GRNN Optimized by FOA," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-18, December.
    10. Guoqiang Sun & Tong Chen & Zhinong Wei & Yonghui Sun & Haixiang Zang & Sheng Chen, 2016. "A Carbon Price Forecasting Model Based on Variational Mode Decomposition and Spiking Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-16, January.
    11. Neeraj Bokde & Andrés Feijóo & Daniel Villanueva & Kishore Kulat, 2019. "A Review on Hybrid Empirical Mode Decomposition Models for Wind Speed and Wind Power Prediction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-42, January.
    12. Ilias G. Marneris & Pandelis N. Biskas & Anastasios G. Bakirtzis, 2017. "Stochastic and Deterministic Unit Commitment Considering Uncertainty and Variability Reserves for High Renewable Integration," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-25, January.
    13. Shiyu Liu & Gengfeng Li & Haipeng Xie & Xifan Wang, 2017. "Correlation Characteristic Analysis for Wind Speed in Different Geographical Hierarchies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-20, February.
    14. Qian, Zheng & Pei, Yan & Zareipour, Hamidreza & Chen, Niya, 2019. "A review and discussion of decomposition-based hybrid models for wind energy forecasting applications," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 939-953.
    15. Maria Grazia De Giorgi & Stefano Campilongo & Antonio Ficarella & Paolo Maria Congedo, 2014. "Comparison Between Wind Power Prediction Models Based on Wavelet Decomposition with Least-Squares Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN)," Energies, MDPI, vol. 7(8), pages 1-22, August.

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