Projecting socio-economic impacts of bioenergy: Current status and limitations of ex-ante quantification methods

The socio-economic effects of bio-energy are not unequivocally positive, although it is one of the main arguments for supporting its expansion. An ex-ante quantification of the impacts is necessary for transparently presenting the benefits and burdens of bioenergy before they occur, and for minimising unwanted outcomes. In this article, the status, limitations, and possibilities for improvements in ex-ante quantitative research methods for investigating socio-economic impacts of bioenergy are mapped. For this, a literature review to identify relevant indicators, analyse the latest quantitative ex-ante research methods, and to assess their ability and suitability to measure these indicators was performed. The spatial aggregation of existing analyses was specifically considered because quantitative information on different spatial scales shows the geographic distribution of the effects. From the 236 indicators of socio-economic impacts spread over twelve impact categories that were found in this review, it becomes evident that there are clear differences in the ex-ante quantification of these indicators. The review shows that some impact categories receive more attention in ex-ante quantification studies, such as project-level economic feasibility and national-level macroeconomic impacts, while other relevant indicators have not been ex-ante quantified, such as community impacts and public acceptance. Moreover, a key blind spot regarding food security impacts was identified in the aggregation level at which food security impacts are quantified, which does not match the level at which the impacts occur. The review also shows that much more can be done in terms of ex-ante quantification of these impacts. Specifically, spatial disaggregation of models and model collaboration can extend the scope of socio-economic analyses. This is demonstrated for food security impacts, which shows the potential for future household-level analysis of food security impacts on all four pillars of food security.