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Land Use Dynamics, Climate Change, and Food Security in Vietnam: A Global-to-local Modeling Approach

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  • Rutten, Martine
  • van Dijk, Michiel
  • van Rooij, Wilbert
  • Hilderink, Henk

Abstract

We present an innovative global-to-local modeling approach to analyze impacts of uncertain and complex futures on Vietnam’s economy via changes in land use patterns. Socio-economic changes are shown to have major implications for the Vietnamese landscape, including natural forest losses with negative consequences for biodiversity and greenhouse gas emissions, and losses of paddy rice and other agricultural lands in the Red River Delta and the Mekong River delta. Climate-related flood risks in these areas further threaten the population, economic assets, and food security. The scenarios reveal the importance of investments in agriculture, land markets, and climate change mitigation and adaptation.

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  • Rutten, Martine & van Dijk, Michiel & van Rooij, Wilbert & Hilderink, Henk, 2014. "Land Use Dynamics, Climate Change, and Food Security in Vietnam: A Global-to-local Modeling Approach," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 29-46.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:59:y:2014:i:c:p:29-46
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2014.01.020
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    2. Kun Cheng & Qiang Fu & Tianxiao Li & Qiuxiang Jiang & Wei Liu, 2015. "Regional food security risk assessment under the coordinated development of water resources," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 78(1), pages 603-619, August.
    3. Yu Zhang & Xiaoyu Niu & Yunfeng Hu & Huimin Yan & Lin Zhen, 2022. "Temporal and Spatial Evolution Characteristics and Its Driving Mechanism of Land Use/Land Cover Change in Laos from 2000 to 2020," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-20, July.
    4. Nguyen, Trung Thanh & Nguyen, Loc Duc & Lippe, Rattiya Suddeephong & Grote, Ulrike, 2017. "Determinants of Farmers’ Land Use Decision-Making: Comparative Evidence From Thailand and Vietnam," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 199-213.
    5. Kongmeng Ly & Graciela Metternicht & Lucy Marshall, 2020. "Linking Changes in Land Cover and Land Use of the Lower Mekong Basin to Instream Nitrate and Total Suspended Solids Variations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-38, April.
    6. Tuyen Quang Tran & Huong Van Vu, 2021. "The impact of land fragmentation on food security in the North Central Coast, Vietnam," Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(2), pages 327-345, May.
    7. De Pinto, Alessandro & Wiebe, Keith D. & Rosegrant, Mark W., 2016. "Climate change and agricultural policy options: A global-to-local approach," Policy briefs 978-089629-244-4, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    8. Grundy, Michael J. & Bryan, Brett A. & Nolan, Martin & Battaglia, Michael & Hatfield-Dodds, Steve & Connor, Jeffery D. & Keating, Brian A., 2016. "Scenarios for Australian agricultural production and land use to 2050," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 70-83.
    9. Jun Wang & Lichun Sui & Xiaomei Yang & Zhihua Wang & Dazhuan Ge & Junmei Kang & Fengshuo Yang & Yueming Liu & Bin Liu, 2019. "Economic Globalization Impacts on the Ecological Environment of Inland Developing Countries: A Case Study of Laos from the Perspective of the Land Use/Cover Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-21, July.
    10. Ha Thi Thuy Nong & Christopher Gan & Baiding Hu, 2022. "Livelihood vulnerability to climate change: a case of farm households in Northeast Vietnam," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(10), pages 12059-12078, October.
    11. Bakker, Craig & Zaitchik, Benjamin F. & Siddiqui, Sauleh & Hobbs, Benjamin F. & Broaddus, Elena & Neff, Roni A. & Haskett, Jonathan & Parker, Cindy L., 2018. "Shocks, seasonality, and disaggregation: Modelling food security through the integration of agricultural, transportation, and economic systems," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 165-184.
    12. Duyen, Tran Nhat Lam & Tien, Nguyen Dinh & Ngoc, Nong Nguyen Khanh & Thuy, Pham Thu & Tich, Vu Van, 2022. "Determinants of swidden communities’ land-use decision-making for different crops in Son La and Nghe An provinces, Vietnam," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    13. Brinkman, Marnix L.J. & Wicke, Birka & Faaij, André P.C. & van der Hilst, Floor, 2019. "Projecting socio-economic impacts of bioenergy: Current status and limitations of ex-ante quantification methods," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    14. De Pinto, Alessandro & Li, Man & Haruna, Akiko & Hyman, Glenn Graham & Martinez, Mario Andrés Londoño & Creamer, Bernardo & Kwon, Ho-Young & Garcia, Jhon Brayan Valencia & Tapasco, Jeimar & Martinez, , 2016. "Low Emission Development Strategies in Agriculture. An Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Uses (AFOLU) Perspective," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 180-203.
    15. Van Dijk, M. & You, L. & Havlik, P. & Palazzo, A. & Mosnier, A., 2018. "Generating high-resolution national crop distribution maps: Combining statistics, gridded data and surveys using an optimization approach," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 276038, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    16. Ike Sari Astuti & Kamalakanta Sahoo & Adam Milewski & Deepak R. Mishra, 2019. "Impact of Land Use Land Cover (LULC) Change on Surface Runoff in an Increasingly Urbanized Tropical Watershed," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(12), pages 4087-4103, September.
    17. Xufeng Cui & Cuicui Liu & Ling Shan & Jiaqi Lin & Jing Zhang & Yuehua Jiang & Guanghong Zhang, 2021. "Spatial-Temporal Responses of Ecosystem Services to Land Use Transformation Driven by Rapid Urbanization: A Case Study of Hubei Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(1), pages 1-19, December.
    18. Jun Zhang & Junping Yan & Liang Xue & Yuanzhi Yao & Xin Shu, 2021. "Is there a regularity: the change of arable land use pattern under the influence of human activities in the Loess Plateau of China?," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 7156-7175, May.
    19. Pornsiri Cheevapattananuwong & Claudia Baldwin & Athena Lathouras & Nnenna Ike, 2020. "Social Capital in Community Organizing for Land Protection and Food Security," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-19, February.
    20. Tamilarasu Arivelarasan & V. S. Manivasagam & Vellingiri Geethalakshmi & Kulanthaivel Bhuvaneswari & Kiruthika Natarajan & Mohan Balasubramanian & Ramasamy Gowtham & Raveendran Muthurajan, 2023. "How Far Will Climate Change Affect Future Food Security? An Inquiry into the Irrigated Rice System of Peninsular India," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-20, February.

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