IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v138y2016i1d10.1007_s10584-016-1729-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamics of the land use, land use change, and forestry sink in the European Union: the impacts of energy and climate targets for 2030

Author

Listed:
  • Stefan Frank

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Hannes Böttcher

    (Öko-Institut)

  • Mykola Gusti

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
    Lviv Polytechnic National University)

  • Petr Havlík

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Ger Klaassen

    (European Commission)

  • Georg Kindermann

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Michael Obersteiner

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

Abstract

A 2030 climate and energy policy framework was endorsed by the European Council in 2014. The main elements are a binding 40 % greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction target compared to 1990, a renewable energy share of 27 %, and an energy savings target of at least 27 % by 2030. In this paper, we assess the impact of these targets on the European land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sector using a Europe focused global land use model linked with a detailed forest management model. We show that implementing a 40 % GHG emission reduction target by 2030 may only have a small negative impact on the domestic LULUCF sink if the additional biomass demand for energy is mostly met through ligno-cellulosic energy crops rather than forest removals. However, if the increased biomass demand were met through higher rates of forest harvest removals, a more negative impact on the LULUCF sink could be expected.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Frank & Hannes Böttcher & Mykola Gusti & Petr Havlík & Ger Klaassen & Georg Kindermann & Michael Obersteiner, 2016. "Dynamics of the land use, land use change, and forestry sink in the European Union: the impacts of energy and climate targets for 2030," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 138(1), pages 253-266, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:138:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1729-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1729-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-016-1729-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-016-1729-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sherrington, Chris & Bartley, Justin & Moran, Dominic, 2008. "Farm-level constraints on the domestic supply of perennial energy crops in the UK," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2504-2512, July.
    2. Havlík, Petr & Schneider, Uwe A. & Schmid, Erwin & Böttcher, Hannes & Fritz, Steffen & Skalský, Rastislav & Aoki, Kentaro & Cara, Stéphane De & Kindermann, Georg & Kraxner, Florian & Leduc, Sylvain & , 2011. "Global land-use implications of first and second generation biofuel targets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 5690-5702, October.
    3. Lauri, Pekka & Havlík, Petr & Kindermann, Georg & Forsell, Nicklas & Böttcher, Hannes & Obersteiner, Michael, 2014. "Woody biomass energy potential in 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 19-31.
    4. Gert-Jan Nabuurs & Marcus Lindner & Pieter J. Verkerk & Katja Gunia & Paola Deda & Roman Michalak & Giacomo Grassi, 2013. "First signs of carbon sink saturation in European forest biomass," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(9), pages 792-796, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mykola Gusti & Nicklas Forsell & Petr Havlik & Nikolay Khabarov & Florian Kraxner & Michael Obersteiner, 2019. "The sensitivity of the costs of reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) to future socioeconomic drivers and its implications for mitigation policy design," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 24(6), pages 1123-1141, August.
    2. Eyvindson, Kyle & Repo, Anna & Mönkkönen, Mikko, 2018. "Mitigating forest biodiversity and ecosystem service losses in the era of bio-based economy," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 119-127.
    3. Kim, Sei Jin & Baker, Justin S. & Sohngen, Brent L. & Shell, Michael, 2018. "Cumulative global forest carbon implications of regional bioenergy expansion policies," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 198-219.
    4. Safarzadeh, Soroush & Rasti-Barzoki, Morteza & Hejazi, Seyed Reza, 2020. "A review of optimal energy policy instruments on industrial energy efficiency programs, rebound effects, and government policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    5. Jonsson, Ragnar & Rinaldi, Francesca & Pilli, Roberto & Fiorese, Giulia & Hurmekoski, Elias & Cazzaniga, Noemi & Robert, Nicolas & Camia, Andrea, 2021. "Boosting the EU forest-based bioeconomy: Market, climate, and employment impacts," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    6. Brinkman, Marnix L.J. & Wicke, Birka & Faaij, André P.C. & van der Hilst, Floor, 2019. "Projecting socio-economic impacts of bioenergy: Current status and limitations of ex-ante quantification methods," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    7. Mattias, Gaglio & Elena, Tamburini & Giuseppe, Castaldelli & Anna, Fano Elisa, 2021. "Modeling the ecosystem service of agricultural residues provision for bioenergy production: A potential application in the Emilia-Romagna region (Italy)," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 451(C).
    8. Murphy, Fionnuala & McDonnell, Kevin, 2017. "Investigation of the potential impact of the Paris Agreement on national mitigation policies and the risk of carbon leakage; an analysis of the Irish bioenergy industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 80-88.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Benítez, Almudena & Amaro-Gahete, Juan & Chien, Yu-Chuan & Caballero, Álvaro & Morales, Julián & Brandell, Daniel, 2022. "Recent advances in lithium-sulfur batteries using biomass-derived carbons as sulfur host," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    2. Zafeiriou, Eleni & Petridis, Konstantinos & Karelakis, Christos & Arabatzis, Garyfallos, 2016. "Optimal combination of energy crops under different policy scenarios; The case of Northern Greece," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 607-616.
    3. Lochhead, Kyle & Ghafghazi, Saeed & Havlik, Petr & Forsell, Nicklas & Obersteiner, Michael & Bull, Gary & Mabee, Warren, 2016. "Price trends and volatility scenarios for designing forest sector transformation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 184-191.
    4. Wu, Yazhen & Deppermann, Andre & Havlík, Petr & Frank, Stefan & Ren, Ming & Zhao, Hao & Ma, Lin & Fang, Chen & Chen, Qi & Dai, Hancheng, 2023. "Global land-use and sustainability implications of enhanced bioenergy import of China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 336(C).
    5. Lauri, Pekka & Forsell, Nicklas & Korosuo, Anu & Havlík, Petr & Obersteiner, Michael & Nordin, Annika, 2017. "Impact of the 2°C target on global woody biomass use," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 121-130.
    6. Mirzabaev, Alisher & Guta, Dawit & Goedecke, Jann & Gaur, Varun & Börner, Jan & Virchow, Detlef & Denich, Manfred & von Braun, Joachim, 2014. "Bioenergy, Food Security and Poverty Reduction: Mitigating tradeoffs and promoting synergies along the Water- Energy-Food Security Nexus," Working Papers 180421, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    7. Bartolini, Fabio & Viaggi, Davide, 2012. "An analysis of policy scenario effects on the adoption of energy production on the farm: A case study in Emilia–Romagna (Italy)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 454-464.
    8. O. Borodina, S. Kyryziuk, V. Yarovyi, Yu. Ermoliev, T. Ermolieva, 2016. "Modeling local land uses under the global climate change," Economy and Forecasting, Valeriy Heyets, issue 1, pages 117-128.
    9. Batidzirai, B. & Smeets, E.M.W. & Faaij, A.P.C., 2012. "Harmonising bioenergy resource potentials—Methodological lessons from review of state of the art bioenergy potential assessments," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(9), pages 6598-6630.
    10. Kargbo, Hannah & Harris, Jonathan Stuart & Phan, Anh N., 2021. "“Drop-in” fuel production from biomass: Critical review on techno-economic feasibility and sustainability," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    11. Alice Favero & Robert Mendelsohn, 2013. "Evaluating the Global Role of Woody Biomass as a Mitigation Strategy," Working Papers 2013.37, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    12. Cao, Yan & Doustgani, Amir & Salehi, Abozar & Nemati, Mohammad & Ghasemi, Amir & Koohshekan, Omid, 2020. "The economic evaluation of establishing a plant for producing biodiesel from edible oil wastes in oil-rich countries: Case study Iran," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    13. Tranter, R.B. & Swinbank, A. & Jones, P.J. & Banks, C.J. & Salter, A.M., 2011. "Assessing the potential for the uptake of on-farm anaerobic digestion for energy production in England," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2424-2430, May.
    14. Camacho, Carmen & Pérez-Barahona, Agustín, 2015. "Land use dynamics and the environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 96-118.
    15. Carl-Friedrich Schleussner & Joeri Rogelj & Michiel Schaeffer & Tabea Lissner & Rachel Licker & Erich M. Fischer & Reto Knutti & Anders Levermann & Katja Frieler & William Hare, 2016. "Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(9), pages 827-835, September.
    16. Riikka Siljander & Tommi Ekholm, 2018. "Integrated scenario modelling of energy, greenhouse gas emissions and forestry," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 783-802, June.
    17. Gamborg, Christian & Anker, Helle Tegner & Sandøe, Peter, 2014. "Ethical and legal challenges in bioenergy governance: Coping with value disagreement and regulatory complexity," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 326-333.
    18. Mosnier, A. & Havlík, P. & Valin, H. & Baker, J. & Murray, B. & Feng, S. & Obersteiner, M. & McCarl, B.A. & Rose, S.K. & Schneider, U.A., 2013. "Alternative U.S. biofuel mandates and global GHG emissions: The role of land use change, crop management and yield growth," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 602-614.
    19. Tan, Ting & Yan, Zhimiao & Zou, Hongxiang & Ma, Kejing & Liu, Fengrui & Zhao, Linchuan & Peng, Zhike & Zhang, Wenming, 2019. "Renewable energy harvesting and absorbing via multi-scale metamaterial systems for Internet of things," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    20. Pang, Xi & Nordström, Eva-Maria & Böttcher, Hannes & Trubins, Renats & Mörtberg, Ulla, 2017. "Trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services under different forest management scenarios – The LEcA tool," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 28(PA), pages 67-79.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:138:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1729-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.