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Outlook for ethanol production costs in Brazil up to 2030, for different biomass crops and industrial technologies

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  • Jonker, J.G.G.
  • van der Hilst, F.
  • Junginger, H.M.
  • Cavalett, O.
  • Chagas, M.F.
  • Faaij, A.P.C.

Abstract

This paper presents an economic outlook of the ethanol industry in Brazil considering different biomass feedstocks and different industrial processing options. A spreadsheet model was designed to account for different feedstocks and industrial processes, and expected trends in biomass yield, sugar- and fibre content, industrial scale and efficiency. Sugarcane and energycane cultivation costs may be reduced from 35US$2010/TC in 2010 to 27US$2010/TC and 22US$2010/TC in 2030 respectively. Eucalyptus and elephant grass cultivation costs could be reduced from 32 to 23US$2010/tonne wet and 38 to 26US$2010/tonne wet for eucalyptus and elephant grass. Total ethanol production costs of first generation processing may decrease from 700US$2010/m3 in 2010, to 432US$2010/m3 in 2030. First generation ethanol production costs may decrease by reduced feedstock costs, increase in sugar content, utilization of cane trash, and use of sweet sorghum. Furthermore, the improvement in industrial efficiency of the first generation process, increasing industrial scale and change to an improved technology are other measures. For second generation technology utilizing eucalyptus, the total ethanol production costs could be strongly reduced to 424US$2010/m3 in 2030. Costs reduction measures for second generation industrial processing include reduced feedstock costs, increasing industrial efficiency and scale, and a change to more advanced industrial process. Overall, biomass yield, increase in sugar content of sugarcane, and improved industrial efficiency are important parameters in total ethanol production costs. Ongoing RD&D effort and commercialization of second generation industrial processing may result in the lowest ethanol production costs for second generation processing in the future.

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  • Jonker, J.G.G. & van der Hilst, F. & Junginger, H.M. & Cavalett, O. & Chagas, M.F. & Faaij, A.P.C., 2015. "Outlook for ethanol production costs in Brazil up to 2030, for different biomass crops and industrial technologies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 593-610.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:147:y:2015:i:c:p:593-610
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.01.090
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    5. Rolz, Carlos & de León, Robert & Mendizábal de Montenegro, Ana Luisa & Porras, Vilma & Cifuentes, Rolando, 2017. "A multiple harvest cultivation strategy for ethanol production from sweet sorghum throughout the year in tropical ecosystems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 103-110.
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    14. Pavão, Leandro V. & Santos, Lucas F. & Oliveira, Cássia M. & Cruz, Antonio J.G. & Ravagnani, Mauro A.S.S. & Costa, Caliane B.B., 2023. "Flexible heat integration system in first-/second-generation ethanol production via screening pinch-based method and multiperiod model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
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    16. Garcia, Teresa Cristina & Durand-Morat, Alvaro & Yang, Wei & Popp, Michael & Schreckhise, William, 2022. "Consumers’ willingness to pay for second-generation ethanol in Brazil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    17. Bonassa, Gabriela & Schneider, Lara Talita & Canever, Victor Bruno & Cremonez, Paulo André & Frigo, Elisandro Pires & Dieter, Jonathan & Teleken, Joel Gustavo, 2018. "Scenarios and prospects of solid biofuel use in Brazil," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 2365-2378.
    18. Brinkman, Marnix L.J. & Wicke, Birka & Faaij, André P.C. & van der Hilst, Floor, 2019. "Projecting socio-economic impacts of bioenergy: Current status and limitations of ex-ante quantification methods," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    19. Gomes, Daniel G. & Teixeira, José A. & Domingues, Lucília, 2021. "Economic determinants on the implementation of a Eucalyptus wood biorefinery producing biofuels, energy and high added-value compounds," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 303(C).
    20. Fonseca, G.C. & Costa, C.B.B. & Cruz, A.J.G., 2020. "Economic analysis of a second-generation ethanol and electricity biorefinery using superstructural optimization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    21. Melikoglu, Mehmet, 2017. "Vision 2023: Status quo and future of biomass and coal for sustainable energy generation in Turkey," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 800-808.
    22. Vasconcelos, Marcelo Holanda & Mendes, Fernanda Machado & Ramos, Lucas & Dias, Marina Oliveira S. & Bonomi, Antonio & Jesus, Charles Dayan F. & Watanabe, Marcos Djun B. & Junqueira, Tassia Lopes & Mil, 2020. "Techno-economic assessment of bioenergy and biofuel production in integrated sugarcane biorefinery: Identification of technological bottlenecks and economic feasibility of dilute acid pretreatment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
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