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Trade Liberalization and Poverty in Ecuador: A CGE Macro-Microsimulation Analysis

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  • Rob Vos
  • Niek De Jong

Abstract

Cross-country analysis of the aggregate growth-poverty link is likely to miss important country-specific detail and possible offsetting forces in the underlying labour market adjustment process. This paper combines a CGE model analysis with a microsimulations approach to analyse the effects of trade liberalization on poverty and income distribution in Ecuador. The CGE model enables us to disentangle the general equilibrium effects of various trade policy scenarios on sector output, employment, factor incomes and household consumption. However, as is typical of CGE models, this analysis only provides distribution results for fairly aggregated groups of workers and a reduced number of representative households. The microsimulations approach adds the full distribution to the analysis and allows simulation of the effects of trade reform on the job status and remuneration of individual workers and thereby on household income distribution and poverty. The macro- microsimulation results indicate that the trade opening in Ecuador induced mild aggregate welfare gains, but rising income inequality due to rising wage differentials between skilled and unskilled workers implies virtually no poverty-reducing effect from trade liberalization.

Suggested Citation

  • Rob Vos & Niek De Jong, 2003. "Trade Liberalization and Poverty in Ecuador: A CGE Macro-Microsimulation Analysis," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 211-232.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:ecsysr:v:15:y:2003:i:2:p:211-232
    DOI: 10.1080/0953531032000091180
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Isabel Teichmann, 2016. "CGE-Based Methods to Measure the Impact of Trade Liberalization on Poverty," DIW Roundup: Politik im Fokus 100, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Bas, Maria & Paunov, Caroline, 2021. "Disentangling trade reform impacts on firm market and production decisions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    3. Sara Wong & Ricardo Arguello & Ketty Rivera, 2007. "Poverty impacts of increased openness and fiscal policies in a dollarized economy: a CGE-micro approach for Ecuador," Documentos de Trabajo 4367, Universidad del Rosario.
    4. Ole Boysen & Alan Matthews, 2008. "The Impact of Developed Country Agricultural Trade Liberalization on Poverty: A Survey," Working Papers hal-03416399, HAL.
    5. Anderson, Edward, 2020. "The impact of trade liberalisation on poverty and inequality: Evidence from CGE models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1208-1227.
    6. World Bank, 2004. "Ecuador : Poverty Assessment," World Bank Publications - Reports 14593, The World Bank Group.
    7. Samir Cury & Euclides Pedrozo, 2016. "Cash Transfer Policies, Taxation and the Fall in Inequality in Brazil An Integrated Microsimulation-CGE Analysis [equilibrium model, microsimulation model, Brazil. Classification-JEL: C68, D58, I38," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 9(1), pages 55-85.
    8. Alvaro Gallardo & Cristian Mardones, 2013. "Environmentally extended social accounting matrix for Chile," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 1099-1127, August.
    9. Vaqar Ahmed & Cathal O'Donoghue, 2010. "External Shocks in a Small Open Economy: A CGE - Microsimulation Analysis," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 15(1), pages 45-90, Jan-Jun.
    10. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Antonio Estache & Luc Savard, 2009. "Electricity Reforms In Mali: A Macro–Micro Analysis Of The Effects On Poverty And Distribution," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(1), pages 127-147, March.
    11. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Luc Savard & Antonio Estache, 2013. "The Distributional Impact of Developed Countries’ Climate Change Policies on Senegal: A Macro-Micro CGE Application," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(6), pages 1-24, June.
    12. Maurizio Bussolo & Rafael E De Hoyos & Denis Medvedev, 2010. "Economic growth and income distribution: linking macro-economic models with household survey data at the global level," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 3(1), pages 92-103.
    13. Dorothée BOCCANFUSO & Massa COULABY & Govinda R TIMILSINA & Luc SAVARD, 2010. "Economic and Distributional Impact of Bio-Fuels in Mali," EcoMod2010 259600032, EcoMod.
    14. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Antonio Estache & Luc Savard, 2007. "Electricity Reforms in Senegal: A Macro–Micro Analysis of the Effects on Poverty and Distribution," Cahiers de recherche 07-12, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    15. Jonasson, Erik & Filipski, Mateusz & Brooks, Jonathan & Taylor, J. Edward, 2014. "Modeling the welfare impacts of agricultural policies in developing countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 63-82.
    16. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Massa Coulibaly & Luc Savard & Govinda Timilsina, 2018. "Macroeconomic and Distributional Impacts of Jatropha Based Biodiesel in Mali," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-22, November.
    17. Phouphet Kyophilavong & Xaignasack Lassachack & Thanouxay Volavong, 2016. "Do cash transfers help the poor during trade liberalization? Evidence from Laos," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 355-371, December.
    18. Jonasson, Erik & Filipski, Mateusz & Brooks, Jonathan & Taylor, J. Edward, 2012. "Modeling the Welfare Implications of Agricultural Policies in Developing Countries," Working Papers 2012:11, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    19. Jeong-Soo OH & Phouphet Kyophilavong, 2015. "Trade Liberalization and Poverty in Developing Countries: Literature Survey," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 3(2), pages 86-94, Fabruary.
    20. Diego Ocampo & Mayra Janet Ortega & Elisenda Paluzie, 2024. "Tariffs and industrial location in Ecuador," UB School of Economics Working Papers 2024/471, University of Barcelona School of Economics.
    21. Brinkman, Marnix L.J. & Wicke, Birka & Faaij, André P.C. & van der Hilst, Floor, 2019. "Projecting socio-economic impacts of bioenergy: Current status and limitations of ex-ante quantification methods," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    22. Binjian, Binjian & Sakamoto, Hiroshi, 2013. "Market Reform and Income Distribution in China : A CGE–Microsimulation Approach," AGI Working Paper Series 2013-13, Asian Growth Research Institute.
    23. Manh Toan Nguyen & Tung Lam Dang & Thi Hong Hanh Huynh, 2020. "Trade Liberalization and Income Distribution in Vietnam: Dynamic CGE Approach," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 34(4), pages 404-429, December.
    24. Susana Santos, 2005. "Social Accounting Matrix and the System of National Accounts: An Application," Working Papers Department of Economics 2005/14, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.

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