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An illustration of the use of an approach for treating model uncertainties in risk assessment

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  • Bjerga, Torbjørn
  • Aven, Terje
  • Zio, Enrico

Abstract

This paper discusses an approach for treating model uncertainties in relation to quantitative risk assessments. The analysis is based on a conceptual framework where a distinction is made between model error—the difference between the model prediction and the true future quantity—and model output uncertainty—the (epistemic) uncertainty about the magnitude of this error. The aim of the paper is to provide further clarifications and explanations of important issues related to the understanding and implementation of the approach, using a detailed study of a Poisson model case as an illustration. Special focus is on the way the uncertainties are assessed.

Suggested Citation

  • Bjerga, Torbjørn & Aven, Terje & Zio, Enrico, 2014. "An illustration of the use of an approach for treating model uncertainties in risk assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 46-53.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:125:y:2014:i:c:p:46-53
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2014.01.014
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rebba, Ramesh & Mahadevan, Sankaran & Huang, Shuping, 2006. "Validation and error estimation of computational models," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 91(10), pages 1390-1397.
    2. Selvik, J.T. & Aven, T., 2011. "A framework for reliability and risk centered maintenance," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 324-331.
    3. Marc C. Kennedy & Anthony O'Hagan, 2001. "Bayesian calibration of computer models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 63(3), pages 425-464.
    4. Christophe Bérenguer & Antoine Grall & C. Guedes Soares, 2011. "Advances in Safety, Reliability and Risk Management - ESREL 2011," Post-Print hal-02273237, HAL.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bani-Mustafa, Tasneem & Flage, Roger & Vasseur, Dominique & Zeng, Zhiguo & Zio, Enrico, 2020. "An extended method for evaluating assumptions deviations in quantitative risk assessment and its application to external flooding risk assessment of a nuclear power plant," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    2. Terje Aven, 2017. "Improving the foundation and practice of reliability engineering," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 231(3), pages 295-305, June.
    3. Aven, Terje, 2016. "On the use of conservatism in risk assessments," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 33-38.
    4. Jon T Selvik & Eirik B Abrahamsen, 2017. "On the meaning of accuracy and precision in a risk analysis context," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 231(2), pages 91-100, April.
    5. Aven, Terje, 2017. "Improving risk characterisations in practical situations by highlighting knowledge aspects, with applications to risk matrices," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 42-48.
    6. Edoardo Tosoni & Ahti Salo & Enrico Zio, 2018. "Scenario Analysis for the Safety Assessment of Nuclear Waste Repositories: A Critical Review," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(4), pages 755-776, April.
    7. Tasneem Bani-Mustafa & Nicola Pedroni & Enrico Zio & Dominique Vasseur & Francois Beaudouin, 2020. "A hierarchical tree-based decision-making approach for assessing the relative trustworthiness of risk assessment models," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 234(6), pages 748-763, December.
    8. Reilly, Allison C. & Baroud, Hiba & Flage, Roger & Gerst, Michael D., 2021. "Sources of uncertainty in interdependent infrastructure and their implications," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    9. Aven, Terje, 2016. "Risk assessment and risk management: Review of recent advances on their foundation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 253(1), pages 1-13.
    10. Bjerga, Torbjørn & Aven, Terje & Zio, Enrico, 2016. "Uncertainty treatment in risk analysis of complex systems: The cases of STAMP and FRAM," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 203-209.
    11. XiaoFei, Lu & Min, Liu, 2014. "Hazard rate function in dynamic environment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 50-60.

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