IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v247y2022ics0360544222002444.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Bayesian approach with urban-scale energy model to calibrate building energy consumption for space heating: A case study of application in Beijing

Author

Listed:
  • Na, Wei
  • Wang, Mingming

Abstract

Urban-scale energy model can be a crucial tool for evaluating and in turn propelling the implementation of energy efficiency and low carbon programs for buildings and cites. A variety of disputes on integrity and correctness lie in basic statistical data of China's building energy use. Inadequate information and performance gap caused by input uncertainties are the common obstacles to produce reliable energy modelling results. This paper develops a bottom-up approach to depict energy use intensity (EUI) for space heating of building in the urban level accurately, even if the data resource is inadequate and imprecise or the data are influenced by uncertain issues. A hybrid probability model is developed and the model parameters are calibrated by Bayesian inference and Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation using data set of meter reading from 2062 stochastic-sampled heating substations in Beijing. Preparation and simulation efforts of using this energy model are discussed, following this framework and adjusting according to local climate conditions, typological building characteristics and morphological urban-scale parameters. The results show that the approach is reliable and efficient to calibrate parameters in building energy models. The urban-scale benchmarks of EUI for space heating in Beijing is successfully performed to demonstrate the proposed methodology.

Suggested Citation

  • Na, Wei & Wang, Mingming, 2022. "A Bayesian approach with urban-scale energy model to calibrate building energy consumption for space heating: A case study of application in Beijing," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:247:y:2022:i:c:s0360544222002444
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2022.123341
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544222002444
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2022.123341?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Swan, Lukas G. & Ugursal, V. Ismet, 2009. "Modeling of end-use energy consumption in the residential sector: A review of modeling techniques," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(8), pages 1819-1835, October.
    2. Raillon, L. & Ghiaus, C., 2018. "An efficient Bayesian experimental calibration of dynamic thermal models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 818-833.
    3. Cerezo Davila, Carlos & Reinhart, Christoph F. & Bemis, Jamie L., 2016. "Modeling Boston: A workflow for the efficient generation and maintenance of urban building energy models from existing geospatial datasets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 117(P1), pages 237-250.
    4. Mingshun Zhang & Xuan Ge & Ya Zhao & Chun Xia-Bauer, 2019. "Creating Statistics for China’s Building Energy Consumption Using an Adapted Energy Balance Sheet," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-15, November.
    5. Si Chen & Daniel Friedrich & Zhibin Yu & James Yu, 2019. "District Heating Network Demand Prediction Using a Physics-Based Energy Model with a Bayesian Approach for Parameter Calibration," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-19, September.
    6. Matthew Plumlee, 2017. "Bayesian Calibration of Inexact Computer Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 112(519), pages 1274-1285, July.
    7. Li, Zhengwei & Han, Yanmin & Xu, Peng, 2014. "Methods for benchmarking building energy consumption against its past or intended performance: An overview," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 325-334.
    8. Marc C. Kennedy & Anthony O'Hagan, 2001. "Bayesian calibration of computer models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 63(3), pages 425-464.
    9. Fan, Cheng & Wang, Jiayuan & Gang, Wenjie & Li, Shenghan, 2019. "Assessment of deep recurrent neural network-based strategies for short-term building energy predictions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 700-710.
    10. Lund, Henrik & Andersen, Anders N. & Østergaard, Poul Alberg & Mathiesen, Brian Vad & Connolly, David, 2012. "From electricity smart grids to smart energy systems – A market operation based approach and understanding," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 96-102.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Heidenthaler, Daniel & Deng, Yingwen & Leeb, Markus & Grobbauer, Michael & Kranzl, Lukas & Seiwald, Lena & Mascherbauer, Philipp & Reindl, Patricia & Bednar, Thomas, 2023. "Automated energy performance certificate based urban building energy modelling approach for predicting heat load profiles of districts," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PB).
    2. Zou, Chenchen & Ma, Minda & Zhou, Nan & Feng, Wei & You, Kairui & Zhang, Shufan, 2023. "Toward carbon free by 2060: A decarbonization roadmap of operational residential buildings in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Si Chen & Daniel Friedrich & Zhibin Yu & James Yu, 2019. "District Heating Network Demand Prediction Using a Physics-Based Energy Model with a Bayesian Approach for Parameter Calibration," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-19, September.
    2. Hou, D. & Hassan, I.G. & Wang, L., 2021. "Review on building energy model calibration by Bayesian inference," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    3. Gatt, Damien & Yousif, Charles & Cellura, Maurizio & Camilleri, Liberato & Guarino, Francesco, 2020. "Assessment of building energy modelling studies to meet the requirements of the new Energy Performance of Buildings Directive," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    4. Aldubyan, Mohammad & Krarti, Moncef, 2022. "Impact of stay home living on energy demand of residential buildings: Saudi Arabian case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PA).
    5. Avichal Malhotra & Simon Raming & Jérôme Frisch & Christoph van Treeck, 2021. "Open-Source Tool for Transforming CityGML Levels of Detail," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-26, December.
    6. Pasichnyi, Oleksii & Wallin, Jörgen & Kordas, Olga, 2019. "Data-driven building archetypes for urban building energy modelling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 360-377.
    7. Shiyi Song & Hong Leng & Ran Guo, 2022. "Multi-Agent-Based Model for the Urban Macro-Level Impact Factors of Building Energy Consumption on Different Types of Land," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-24, November.
    8. Jun Yuan & Haowei Wang & Szu Hui Ng & Victor Nian, 2020. "Ship Emission Mitigation Strategies Choice Under Uncertainty," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-20, May.
    9. Kristensen, Martin Heine & Hedegaard, Rasmus Elbæk & Petersen, Steffen, 2020. "Long-term forecasting of hourly district heating loads in urban areas using hierarchical archetype modeling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    10. Wenliang Li, 2020. "Quantifying the Building Energy Dynamics of Manhattan, New York City, Using an Urban Building Energy Model and Localized Weather Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-22, June.
    11. Niemierko, Rochus & Töppel, Jannick & Tränkler, Timm, 2019. "A D-vine copula quantile regression approach for the prediction of residential heating energy consumption based on historical data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233, pages 691-708.
    12. Yang, Xiu'e & Liu, Shuli & Zou, Yuliang & Ji, Wenjie & Zhang, Qunli & Ahmed, Abdullahi & Han, Xiaojing & Shen, Yongliang & Zhang, Shaoliang, 2022. "Energy-saving potential prediction models for large-scale building: A state-of-the-art review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    13. Kwok Wai Mui & Ling Tim Wong & Manoj Kumar Satheesan & Anjana Balachandran, 2021. "A Hybrid Simulation Model to Predict the Cooling Energy Consumption for Residential Housing in Hong Kong," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-18, August.
    14. Krarti, Moncef & Aldubyan, Mohammad & Williams, Eric, 2020. "Residential building stock model for evaluating energy retrofit programs in Saudi Arabia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    15. Burleyson, Casey D. & Iyer, Gokul & Hejazi, Mohamad & Kim, Sonny & Kyle, Page & Rice, Jennie S. & Smith, Amanda D. & Taylor, Z. Todd & Voisin, Nathalie & Xie, Yulong, 2020. "Future western U.S. building electricity consumption in response to climate and population drivers: A comparative study of the impact of model structure," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    16. Maupin, Kathryn A. & Swiler, Laura P., 2020. "Model discrepancy calibration across experimental settings," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    17. Meibodi, Saleh S. & Loveridge, Fleur, 2022. "The future role of energy geostructures in fifth generation district heating and cooling networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    18. Johari, F. & Peronato, G. & Sadeghian, P. & Zhao, X. & Widén, J., 2020. "Urban building energy modeling: State of the art and future prospects," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    19. Wang, Bo & Zhang, Qiong & Xie, Wei, 2019. "Bayesian sequential data collection for stochastic simulation calibration," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 277(1), pages 300-316.
    20. Xavier Faure & Tim Johansson & Oleksii Pasichnyi, 2022. "The Impact of Detail, Shadowing and Thermal Zoning Levels on Urban Building Energy Modelling (UBEM) on a District Scale," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-18, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:247:y:2022:i:c:s0360544222002444. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.