IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v156y2016icp203-209.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Uncertainty treatment in risk analysis of complex systems: The cases of STAMP and FRAM

Author

Listed:
  • Bjerga, Torbjørn
  • Aven, Terje
  • Zio, Enrico

Abstract

Several approaches to systems thinking have been proposed to understand and model complex socio-technical systems and potential accidents, including the System-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes (STAMP) with the associated hazard analysis method System Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA), and the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM). It is argued that these approaches are suitable for the risk analysis of complex socio-technical systems. The purpose of this paper is to look more closely into this thesis, with a special focus on the treatment of uncertainty and potential surprises linked to the operation of such systems. A key finding is that these approaches may, indeed, reduce the potential for surprises by increasing the system and risk understanding but need to be supplemented with other approaches to adequately support the decision-making on risk issues.

Suggested Citation

  • Bjerga, Torbjørn & Aven, Terje & Zio, Enrico, 2016. "Uncertainty treatment in risk analysis of complex systems: The cases of STAMP and FRAM," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 203-209.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:156:y:2016:i:c:p:203-209
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2016.08.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832016303623
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2016.08.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bjerga, Torbjørn & Aven, Terje & Zio, Enrico, 2014. "An illustration of the use of an approach for treating model uncertainties in risk assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 46-53.
    2. Theresa Brown & Walt Beyeler & Dianne Barton, 2004. "Assessing infrastructure interdependencies: the challenge of risk analysis for complex adaptive systems," International Journal of Critical Infrastructures, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(1), pages 108-117.
    3. Zio, Enrico & Aven, Terje, 2011. "Uncertainties in smart grids behavior and modeling: What are the risks and vulnerabilities? How to analyze them?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 6308-6320, October.
    4. ., 2006. "A European business school field in the making," Chapters, in: Ranking Business Schools, chapter 3, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Belmonte, Fabien & Schön, Walter & Heurley, Laurent & Capel, Robert, 2011. "Interdisciplinary safety analysis of complex socio-technological systems based on the functional resonance accident model: An application to railway trafficsupervision," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 237-249.
    6. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2011. "Over the Cliff: From the Subprime to the Global Financial Crisis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(1), pages 49-70, Winter.
    7. J. M. Ottino, 2004. "Engineering complex systems," Nature, Nature, vol. 427(6973), pages 399-399, January.
    8. Dirk Helbing, 2013. "Globally networked risks and how to respond," Nature, Nature, vol. 497(7447), pages 51-59, May.
    9. Aven, Terje, 2013. "Practical implications of the new risk perspectives," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 136-145.
    10. Leveson, Nancy, 2015. "A systems approach to risk management through leading safety indicators," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 17-34.
    11. Aven, Terje & Zio, Enrico, 2011. "Some considerations on the treatment of uncertainties in risk assessment for practical decision making," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 64-74.
    12. Inger Lise Johansen & Marvin Rausand, 2014. "Defining complexity for risk assessment of sociotechnical systems: A conceptual framework," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 228(3), pages 272-290, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wróbel, Krzysztof & Montewka, Jakub & Kujala, Pentti, 2018. "Towards the development of a system-theoretic model for safety assessment of autonomous merchant vessels," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 209-224.
    2. Meng, Xiangkun & Li, Xinhong & Wang, Weigang & Song, Guozheng & Chen, Guoming & Zhu, Jingyu, 2021. "A novel methodology to analyze accident path in deepwater drilling operation considering uncertain information," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    3. Wu, Chao & Huang, Lang, 2019. "A new accident causation model based on information flow and its application in Tianjin Port fire and explosion accident," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 73-85.
    4. Patriarca, Riccardo & Falegnami, Andrea & Costantino, Francesco & Bilotta, Federico, 2018. "Resilience engineering for socio-technical risk analysis: Application in neuro-surgery," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 321-335.
    5. Anders Jensen & Terje Aven, 2017. "Hazard/threat identification: Using functional resonance analysis method in conjunction with the Anticipatory Failure Determination method," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 231(4), pages 383-389, August.
    6. Langdalen, Henrik & Abrahamsen, Eirik Bjorheim & Selvik, Jon Tømmerås, 2020. "On the importance of systems thinking when using the ALARP principle for risk management," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    7. Faiella, Giuliana & Parand, Anam & Franklin, Bryony Dean & Chana, Prem & Cesarelli, Mario & Stanton, Neville A. & Sevdalis, Nick, 2018. "Expanding healthcare failure mode and effect analysis: A composite proactive risk analysis approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 117-126.
    8. Khastgir, Siddartha & Brewerton, Simon & Thomas, John & Jennings, Paul, 2021. "Systems Approach to Creating Test Scenarios for Automated Driving Systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    9. Qiao, Wanguan & Li, Xinchun & Liu, Quanlong, 2019. "Systemic approaches to incident analysis in coal mines: Comparison of the STAMP, FRAM and “2–4” models," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.
    10. Gerassis, S. & Albuquerque, M.T.D. & García, J.F. & Boente, C. & Giráldez, E. & Taboada, J. & Martín, J.E., 2019. "Understanding complex blasting operations: A structural equation model combining Bayesian networks and latent class clustering," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 195-204.
    11. Stephen Thomas & Katrina M Groth, 2023. "Toward a hybrid causal framework for autonomous vehicle safety analysis," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 237(2), pages 367-388, April.
    12. Martin Folch-Calvo & Francisco Brocal-Fernández & Cristina González-Gaya & Miguel A. Sebastián, 2020. "Analysis and Characterization of Risk Methodologies Applied to Industrial Parks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-35, September.
    13. Juntao Zhang & Hyungju Kim & Yiliu Liu & Mary Ann Lundteigen, 2019. "Combining system-theoretic process analysis and availability assessment: A subsea case study," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 233(4), pages 520-536, August.
    14. Pence, Justin & Sakurahara, Tatsuya & Zhu, Xuefeng & Mohaghegh, Zahra & Ertem, Mehmet & Ostroff, Cheri & Kee, Ernie, 2019. "Data-theoretic methodology and computational platform to quantify organizational factors in socio-technical risk analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 240-260.
    15. Terje Aven, 2019. "The Call for a Shift from Risk to Resilience: What Does it Mean?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(6), pages 1196-1203, June.
    16. Ahmad Dehghan Nejad & Amirhosein Bahramzadeh, 2021. "The competency of organizational safety control structure; a framework for evaluation," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 12(6), pages 1180-1198, December.
    17. Zhang, Aibo & Yin, Zhaoyuan & Wu, Zhiying & Xie, Min & Liu, Yiliu & Yu, Haoshui, 2023. "Investigation of the compressed air energy storage (CAES) system utilizing systems-theoretic process analysis (STPA) towards safe and sustainable energy supply," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 1075-1085.
    18. Kaya, Gulsum Kubra & Hocaoglu, Mehmet Fatih, 2020. "Semi-quantitative application to the Functional Resonance Analysis Method for supporting safety management in a complex health-care process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    19. Mahajan, Haneet Singh & Bradley, Thomas & Pasricha, Sudeep, 2017. "Application of systems theoretic process analysis to a lane keeping assist system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 177-183.
    20. Weiliang Qiao & Enze Huang & Hongtongyang Guo & Yang Liu & Xiaoxue Ma, 2022. "Barriers Involved in the Safety Management Systems: A Systematic Review of Literature," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-35, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zio, Enrico, 2016. "Challenges in the vulnerability and risk analysis of critical infrastructures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 137-150.
    2. Li, Yanfu & Zio, Enrico, 2012. "Uncertainty analysis of the adequacy assessment model of a distributed generation system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 235-244.
    3. Amro Nasr & Oskar Larsson Ivanov & Ivar Björnsson & Jonas Johansson & Dániel Honfi, 2021. "Towards a Conceptual Framework for Built Infrastructure Design in an Uncertain Climate: Challenges and Research Needs," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-19, October.
    4. Zio, E., 2018. "The future of risk assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 176-190.
    5. Tasneem Bani-Mustafa & Nicola Pedroni & Enrico Zio & Dominique Vasseur & Francois Beaudouin, 2020. "A hierarchical tree-based decision-making approach for assessing the relative trustworthiness of risk assessment models," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 234(6), pages 748-763, December.
    6. Aven, Terje, 2013. "Probabilities and background knowledge as a tool to reflect uncertainties in relation to intentional acts," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 229-234.
    7. Christos Ellinas & Neil Allan & Anders Johansson, 2016. "Exploring Structural Patterns Across Evolved and Designed Systems: A Network Perspective," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(3), pages 179-192, May.
    8. Berner, Christine Louise & Flage, Roger, 2017. "Creating risk management strategies based on uncertain assumptions and aspects from assumption-based planning," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 10-19.
    9. Aven, Terje & Krohn, Bodil S., 2014. "A new perspective on how to understand, assess and manage risk and the unforeseen," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 1-10.
    10. Goerlandt, Floris & Montewka, Jakub, 2015. "Maritime transportation risk analysis: Review and analysis in light of some foundational issues," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 115-134.
    11. Aven, Terje, 2017. "Improving risk characterisations in practical situations by highlighting knowledge aspects, with applications to risk matrices," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 42-48.
    12. Gerassis, S. & Albuquerque, M.T.D. & García, J.F. & Boente, C. & Giráldez, E. & Taboada, J. & Martín, J.E., 2019. "Understanding complex blasting operations: A structural equation model combining Bayesian networks and latent class clustering," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 195-204.
    13. Bani-Mustafa, Tasneem & Flage, Roger & Vasseur, Dominique & Zeng, Zhiguo & Zio, Enrico, 2020. "An extended method for evaluating assumptions deviations in quantitative risk assessment and its application to external flooding risk assessment of a nuclear power plant," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    14. Aven, Terje & Zio, Enrico, 2021. "Globalization and global risk: How risk analysis needs to be enhanced to be effective in confronting current threats," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    15. Reilly, Allison C. & Baroud, Hiba & Flage, Roger & Gerst, Michael D., 2021. "Sources of uncertainty in interdependent infrastructure and their implications," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    16. Montewka, Jakub & Goerlandt, Floris & Kujala, Pentti, 2014. "On a systematic perspective on risk for formal safety assessment (FSA)," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 77-85.
    17. Edoardo Tosoni & Ahti Salo & Enrico Zio, 2018. "Scenario Analysis for the Safety Assessment of Nuclear Waste Repositories: A Critical Review," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(4), pages 755-776, April.
    18. Ruipeng Tong & Cunli Zhai & Qingli Jia & Chunlin Wu & Yan Liu & Surui Xue, 2018. "An Interactive Model among Potential Human Risk Factors: 331 Cases of Coal Mine Roof Accidents in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-20, June.
    19. Aven, Terje, 2015. "Implications of black swans to the foundations and practice of risk assessment and management," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 83-91.
    20. Liu, Jintao & Schmid, Felix & Li, Keping & Zheng, Wei, 2021. "A knowledge graph-based approach for exploring railway operational accidents," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:156:y:2016:i:c:p:203-209. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.