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A global Bayesian sensitivity analysis of the 1d SimSphere soil–vegetation–atmospheric transfer (SVAT) model using Gaussian model emulation

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  • Petropoulos, G.
  • Wooster, M.J.
  • Carlson, T.N.
  • Kennedy, M.C.
  • Scholze, M.

Abstract

Sensitivity analysis consists of an integral and important validatory check of a computer simulation model before the code is used in performing any kind of analysis operation. The present paper demonstrates the use of a relatively new method and tool for conducting global sensitivity analysis (GSA) for environmental models, providing simultaneously the first GSA study of the widely used 1d soil–vegetation–atmospheric transfer (SVAT) model named SimSphere. A software platform called the Gaussian emulation machine for sensitivity analysis (GEM SA), which has been developed for performing a GSA via Bayesian theory, is applied to SimSphere model in order to identify the most responsive model inputs to the simulation of key model outputs, detect their interactions and derive absolute sensitivity measures concerning the model structure. This study is also very timely in that, use of this particular SVAT model is currently being considered to be used in a scheme being developed for the operational retrieval of the soil surface moisture content by National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS), in a series of satellite platforms that are due to be launched in the next 12 years starting from 2016.

Suggested Citation

  • Petropoulos, G. & Wooster, M.J. & Carlson, T.N. & Kennedy, M.C. & Scholze, M., 2009. "A global Bayesian sensitivity analysis of the 1d SimSphere soil–vegetation–atmospheric transfer (SVAT) model using Gaussian model emulation," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(19), pages 2427-2440.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:220:y:2009:i:19:p:2427-2440
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.06.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kennedy, Marc C. & Anderson, Clive W. & Conti, Stefano & O’Hagan, Anthony, 2006. "Case studies in Gaussian process modelling of computer codes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 91(10), pages 1301-1309.
    2. Marc C. Kennedy & Anthony O'Hagan, 2001. "Bayesian calibration of computer models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 63(3), pages 425-464.
    3. Cariboni, J. & Gatelli, D. & Liska, R. & Saltelli, A., 2007. "The role of sensitivity analysis in ecological modelling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 203(1), pages 167-182.
    4. Jeremy E. Oakley & Anthony O'Hagan, 2004. "Probabilistic sensitivity analysis of complex models: a Bayesian approach," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 66(3), pages 751-769, August.
    5. Jeremy Oakley, 2002. "Bayesian inference for the uncertainty distribution of computer model outputs," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 89(4), pages 769-784, December.
    6. Tibor F. Liska, 2007. "The Liska model," Society and Economy, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 29(3), pages 363-381, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Abokersh, Mohamed Hany & Spiekman, Marleen & Vijlbrief, Olav & van Goch, T.A.J. & Vallès, Manel & Boer, Dieter, 2021. "A real-time diagnostic tool for evaluating the thermal performance of nearly zero energy buildings," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 281(C).
    2. Mohamed Elhag, 2014. "Sensitivity analysis assessment of remotely based vegetation indices to improve water resources management," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 16(6), pages 1209-1222, December.
    3. Eranga M. Wimalasiri & Ebrahim Jahanshiri & Tengku Adhwa Syaherah Tengku Mohd Suhairi & Hasika Udayangani & Ranjith B. Mapa & Asha S. Karunaratne & Lal P. Vidhanarachchi & Sayed N. Azam-Ali, 2020. "Basic Soil Data Requirements for Process-Based Crop Models as a Basis for Crop Diversification," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-20, September.
    4. Abokersh, Mohamed Hany & Vallès, Manel & Cabeza, Luisa F. & Boer, Dieter, 2020. "A framework for the optimal integration of solar assisted district heating in different urban sized communities: A robust machine learning approach incorporating global sensitivity analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).

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