IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v286y2024ics0360544223030190.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

User repurchase behavior prediction for integrated energy supply stations based on the user profiling method

Author

Listed:
  • Cen, Xiao
  • Chen, Zengliang
  • Chen, Haifeng
  • Ding, Chen
  • Ding, Bo
  • Li, Fei
  • Lou, Fangwei
  • Zhu, Zhenyu
  • Zhang, Hongyu
  • Hong, Bingyuan

Abstract

Under the guidance of the “Dual Carbon” goal, integrated energy supply stations have gradually become an essential facility for the energy transition. Promoting user repurchase has become a vital marketing strategy for integrated energy supply station enterprises. This paper proposes a prediction method based on the user profiling method to predict user repurchase behavior accurately. First, using an improved RFM model and the K-means algorithm, this paper constructs user profiles by dividing 10,000 users into three clusters: general-value developmental users, high-value new users, and low-value loyal users. Next, this paper uses the random forest, light gradient boosting machine, and extreme gradient boosting to predict the repurchase behavior of non-clustered users and the three clusters and compares their prediction performance. In addition, this paper adopts the stacking method for model fusion to improve the prediction performance further. The results show that the accuracies of the best prediction models for the three clusters are 93.28 %, 93.68 %, and 92.84 %, respectively. Finally, this paper provides each cluster with the corresponding prediction model of user repurchase behavior and marketing strategy. For the application scenario of integrated energy supply stations, this study accurately predicts the repurchase behavior of each cluster with unique consumption characteristics. It helps to provide personalized services for new energy vehicle consumers, optimize their consumption experience, and facilitate sustainable consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Cen, Xiao & Chen, Zengliang & Chen, Haifeng & Ding, Chen & Ding, Bo & Li, Fei & Lou, Fangwei & Zhu, Zhenyu & Zhang, Hongyu & Hong, Bingyuan, 2024. "User repurchase behavior prediction for integrated energy supply stations based on the user profiling method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 286(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:286:y:2024:i:c:s0360544223030190
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2023.129625
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544223030190
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2023.129625?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hu, Dingding & Zhou, Kaile & Li, Fangyi & Ma, Dawei, 2022. "Electric vehicle user classification and value discovery based on charging big data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    2. Wei, Xinxing & Ban, Shengnan & Shi, Xilin & Li, Peng & Li, Yinping & Zhu, Shijie & Yang, Kun & Bai, Weizheng & Yang, Chunhe, 2023. "Carbon and energy storage in salt caverns under the background of carbon neutralization in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 272(C).
    3. Wang, Kejun & Qi, Xiaoxia & Liu, Hongda & Song, Jiakang, 2018. "Deep belief network based k-means cluster approach for short-term wind power forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PA), pages 840-852.
    4. Song, Yulong & Wang, Haidan & Ma, Yuan & Yin, Xiang & Cao, Feng, 2022. "Energetic, economic, environmental investigation of carbon dioxide as the refrigeration alternative in new energy bus/railway vehicles’ air conditioning systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    5. Ma, Shuaiyin & Zhang, Yingfeng & Lv, Jingxiang & Ge, Yuntian & Yang, Haidong & Li, Lin, 2020. "Big data driven predictive production planning for energy-intensive manufacturing industries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    6. Weiwei Zhang & Mingyan Wang, 2021. "An improved deep forest model for prediction of e-commerce consumers’ repurchase behavior," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(9), pages 1-16, September.
    7. Massaoudi, Mohamed & Refaat, Shady S. & Chihi, Ines & Trabelsi, Mohamed & Oueslati, Fakhreddine S. & Abu-Rub, Haitham, 2021. "A novel stacked generalization ensemble-based hybrid LGBM-XGB-MLP model for Short-Term Load Forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    8. Kesriklioğlu, Esma & Oktay, Erkan & Karaaslan, Abdulkerim, 2023. "Predicting total household energy expenditures using ensemble learning methods," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    9. Li, Zhao & Luo, Zujiang & Wang, Yan & Fan, Guanyu & Zhang, Jianmang, 2022. "Suitability evaluation system for the shallow geothermal energy implementation in region by Entropy Weight Method and TOPSIS method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 564-576.
    10. Zhou, Kaile & Fu, Chao & Yang, Shanlin, 2016. "Big data driven smart energy management: From big data to big insights," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 215-225.
    11. Cheng-Ju Liu & Tien-Shou Huang & Ping-Tsan Ho & Jui-Chan Huang & Ching-Tang Hsieh, 2020. "Machine learning-based e-commerce platform repurchase customer prediction model," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(12), pages 1-15, December.
    12. da Silva, Ramon Gomes & Ribeiro, Matheus Henrique Dal Molin & Moreno, Sinvaldo Rodrigues & Mariani, Viviana Cocco & Coelho, Leandro dos Santos, 2021. "A novel decomposition-ensemble learning framework for multi-step ahead wind energy forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    13. Patnaik, Bhaskar & Mishra, Manohar & Bansal, Ramesh C. & Jena, Ranjan K., 2021. "MODWT-XGBoost based smart energy solution for fault detection and classification in a smart microgrid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fu, Shuke & Ge, Yingchen & Hao, Yu & Peng, Jiachao & Tian, Jiali, 2024. "Energy supply chain efficiency in the digital era: Evidence from China's listed companies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhao, Guanjia & Cui, Zhipeng & Xu, Jing & Liu, Wenhao & Ma, Suxia, 2022. "Hybrid modeling-based digital twin for performance optimization with flexible operation in the direct air-cooling power unit," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PC).
    2. Xu, Jing & Cui, Zhipeng & Ma, Suxia & Wang, Xiaowei & Zhang, Zhiyao & Zhang, Guoxia, 2024. "Data based digital twin for operational performance optimization in CFB boilers," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(C).
    3. Natei Ermias Benti & Mesfin Diro Chaka & Addisu Gezahegn Semie, 2023. "Forecasting Renewable Energy Generation with Machine Learning and Deep Learning: Current Advances and Future Prospects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-33, April.
    4. Miguel Ángel Rodríguez López & Diego Rodríguez Rodríguez, 2024. "La aplicación de datos masivos en economía de la energía: una revisión," Working Papers 2024-08, FEDEA.
    5. Li, Guanzheng & Li, Bin & Li, Chao & Wang, Shuai, 2023. "State-of-health rapid estimation for lithium-ion battery based on an interpretable stacking ensemble model with short-term voltage profiles," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).
    6. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Qian, Anqi, 2024. "Regional differences, dynamic evolution, and obstacle factors of cultivated land ecological security in China," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    7. Fareniuk Yana & Zatonatska Tetiana & Dluhopolskyi Oleksandr & Kovalenko Oksana, 2022. "Customer churn prediction model: a case of the telecommunication market," Economics, Sciendo, vol. 10(2), pages 109-130, December.
    8. Yang, Mao & Wang, Da & Xu, Chuanyu & Dai, Bozhi & Ma, Miaomiao & Su, Xin, 2023. "Power transfer characteristics in fluctuation partition algorithm for wind speed and its application to wind power forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 582-594.
    9. Sun, Hongjun & Yang, Zhen & Li, Jinxia & Ding, Hongbing & Lv, Pengfei, 2024. "Performance evaluation and optimal design for passive turbulence control-based hydrokinetic energy harvester using EWM-based TOPSIS," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    10. Jihoon Moon & Junhong Kim & Pilsung Kang & Eenjun Hwang, 2020. "Solving the Cold-Start Problem in Short-Term Load Forecasting Using Tree-Based Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-37, February.
    11. Andreas Lenk & Marcus Vogt & Christoph Herrmann, 2024. "An Approach to Predicting Energy Demand Within Automobile Production Using the Temporal Fusion Transformer Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(1), pages 1-34, December.
    12. Saima Akhtar & Sulman Shahzad & Asad Zaheer & Hafiz Sami Ullah & Heybet Kilic & Radomir Gono & Michał Jasiński & Zbigniew Leonowicz, 2023. "Short-Term Load Forecasting Models: A Review of Challenges, Progress, and the Road Ahead," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-29, May.
    13. Cheng, Runkun & Yang, Di & Liu, Da & Zhang, Guowei, 2024. "A reconstruction-based secondary decomposition-ensemble framework for wind power forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
    14. Deng, Song & Dong, Xia & Tao, Li & Wang, Junjie & He, Yi & Yue, Dong, 2024. "Multi-type load forecasting model based on random forest and density clustering with the influence of noise and load patterns," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    15. Ma, Shuaiyin & Ding, Wei & Liu, Yang & Ren, Shan & Yang, Haidong, 2022. "Digital twin and big data-driven sustainable smart manufacturing based on information management systems for energy-intensive industries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 326(C).
    16. Chao Liu & Fengfeng Gao & Mengwan Zhang & Yuanrui Li & Cun Qian, 2024. "Reference Vector-Based Multiobjective Clustering Ensemble Approach for Time Series Forecasting," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(1), pages 181-210, July.
    17. Zhou, Kaile & Yang, Changhui & Shen, Jianxin, 2017. "Discovering residential electricity consumption patterns through smart-meter data mining: A case study from China," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 73-84.
    18. Shengli Liao & Xudong Tian & Benxi Liu & Tian Liu & Huaying Su & Binbin Zhou, 2022. "Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Based on LightGBM and Meteorological Reanalysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-21, August.
    19. Liu, Xinyu & Yang, Jianping & Yang, Chunhe & Zhang, Zheyuan & Chen, Weizhong, 2023. "Numerical simulation on cavern support of compressed air energy storage(CAES)considering thermo-mechanical coupling effect," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    20. Albérico Travassos Rosário & Joana Carmo Dias & Hélder Ferreira, 2023. "Bibliometric Analysis on the Application of Fuzzy Logic into Marketing Strategy," Businesses, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-22, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:286:y:2024:i:c:s0360544223030190. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.