IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v211y2020ics0360544220316406.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Critical materials in global low-carbon energy scenarios: The case for neodymium, dysprosium, lithium, and cobalt

Author

Listed:
  • Junne, Tobias
  • Wulff, Niklas
  • Breyer, Christian
  • Naegler, Tobias

Abstract

The requirements for neodymium, dysprosium, lithium, and cobalt in power generation, storage and transport technologies until 2050 under six global energy scenarios are assessed. We consider plausible developments in the subtechnology markets for lithium-ion batteries, wind power, and electric motors for road transport. Moreover, we include the uncertainties regarding the specific material content of these subtechnologies and the reserve and resource estimates. Furthermore, the development of the material demand in non-energy sectors is considered. The results show that the material requirements increase with the degree of ambition of the scenarios. The maximum annual primary material demand of the scenarios exceeds current extraction volumes by a factor of 3 to 9 (Nd), 7 to 35 (Dy), 12 to 143 (Li), and 2 to 22 (Co). The ratios of cumulative primary material demand to average reserve estimates range from 0.1 to 0.3 (Nd), 0.3 to 1.1 (Dy), 0.7 to 6.5 (Li), and 0.8 to 5.5 (Co). Average resource estimates of Li and Co are exceeded by up to a factor of 2.1 and 1.7, respectively. We recommend that future scenario studies on the energy system transformation consider the influence of possible material bottlenecks on technology prices and substitution technology options.

Suggested Citation

  • Junne, Tobias & Wulff, Niklas & Breyer, Christian & Naegler, Tobias, 2020. "Critical materials in global low-carbon energy scenarios: The case for neodymium, dysprosium, lithium, and cobalt," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:211:y:2020:i:c:s0360544220316406
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2020.118532
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544220316406
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2020.118532?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Harald Ulrik Sverdrup & Anna Hulda Olafsdottir, 2019. "Assessing the Long-Term Global Sustainability of the Production and Supply for Stainless Steel," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 1-29, June.
    2. Valero, Alicia & Valero, Antonio & Calvo, Guiomar & Ortego, Abel, 2018. "Material bottlenecks in the future development of green technologies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 178-200.
    3. Månberger, André & Stenqvist, Björn, 2018. "Global metal flows in the renewable energy transition: Exploring the effects of substitutes, technological mix and development," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 226-241.
    4. Hoenderdaal, Sander & Tercero Espinoza, Luis & Marscheider-Weidemann, Frank & Graus, Wina, 2013. "Can a dysprosium shortage threaten green energy technologies?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 344-355.
    5. Koji Tokimatsu & Shinsuke Murakami & Tsuyoshi Adachi & Ryota Ii & Rieko Yasuoka & Masahiro Nishio, 2017. "Long-term demand and supply of non-ferrous mineral resources by a mineral balance model," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 30(3), pages 193-206, October.
    6. Andersson, B.A & Azar, C & Holmberg, J & Karlsson, S, 1998. "Material constraints for thin-film solar cells," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 407-411.
    7. Elshkaki, Ayman & Graedel, T.E., 2015. "Solar cell metals and their hosts: A tale of oversupply and undersupply," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 167-177.
    8. Grosjean, Camille & Miranda, Pamela Herrera & Perrin, Marion & Poggi, Philippe, 2012. "Assessment of world lithium resources and consequences of their geographic distribution on the expected development of the electric vehicle industry," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 1735-1744.
    9. Kim, Junbeum & Guillaume, Bertrand & Chung, Jinwook & Hwang, Yongwoo, 2015. "Critical and precious materials consumption and requirement in wind energy system in the EU 27," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 327-334.
    10. Tokimatsu, Koji & Wachtmeister, Henrik & McLellan, Benjamin & Davidsson, Simon & Murakami, Shinsuke & Höök, Mikael & Yasuoka, Rieko & Nishio, Masahiro, 2017. "Energy modeling approach to the global energy-mineral nexus: A first look at metal requirements and the 2°C target," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 207(C), pages 494-509.
    11. Tokimatsu, Koji & Höök, Mikael & McLellan, Benjamin & Wachtmeister, Henrik & Murakami, Shinsuke & Yasuoka, Rieko & Nishio, Masahiro, 2018. "Energy modeling approach to the global energy-mineral nexus: Exploring metal requirements and the well-below 2 °C target with 100 percent renewable energy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C), pages 1158-1175.
    12. Davidsson, Simon & Höök, Mikael, 2017. "Material requirements and availability for multi-terawatt deployment of photovoltaics," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 574-582.
    13. Stefan Pauliuk & Anders Arvesen & Konstantin Stadler & Edgar G. Hertwich, 2017. "Industrial ecology in integrated assessment models," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(1), pages 13-20, January.
    14. Speirs, Jamie & Contestabile, Marcello & Houari, Yassine & Gross, Robert, 2014. "The future of lithium availability for electric vehicle batteries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 183-193.
    15. Grandell, Leena & Lehtilä, Antti & Kivinen, Mari & Koljonen, Tiina & Kihlman, Susanna & Lauri, Laura S., 2016. "Role of critical metals in the future markets of clean energy technologies," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 53-62.
    16. Hache, Emmanuel & Seck, Gondia Sokhna & Simoen, Marine & Bonnet, Clément & Carcanague, Samuel, 2019. "Critical raw materials and transportation sector electrification: A detailed bottom-up analysis in world transport," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C), pages 6-25.
    17. Kushnir, Duncan & Sandén, Björn A., 2012. "The time dimension and lithium resource constraints for electric vehicles," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 93-103.
    18. Elshkaki, Ayman & Shen, Lei, 2019. "Energy-material nexus: The impacts of national and international energy scenarios on critical metals use in China up to 2050 and their global implications," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 903-917.
    19. Curtius, Hans Christoph, 2018. "The adoption of building-integrated photovoltaics: barriers and facilitators," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 783-790.
    20. Jacobson, Mark Z. & Delucchi, Mark A. & Cameron, Mary A. & Mathiesen, Brian V., 2018. "Matching demand with supply at low cost in 139 countries among 20 world regions with 100% intermittent wind, water, and sunlight (WWS) for all purposes," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 236-248.
    21. Candelise, Chiara & Speirs, Jamie F. & Gross, Robert J.K., 2011. "Materials availability for thin film (TF) PV technologies development: A real concern?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(9), pages 4972-4981.
    22. Viebahn, Peter & Soukup, Ole & Samadi, Sascha & Teubler, Jens & Wiesen, Klaus & Ritthoff, Michael, 2015. "Assessing the need for critical minerals to shift the German energy system towards a high proportion of renewables," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 655-671.
    23. Nassar, Nedal T. & Wilburn, David R. & Goonan, Thomas G., 2016. "Byproduct metal requirements for U.S. wind and solar photovoltaic electricity generation up to the year 2040 under various Clean Power Plan scenarios," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 1209-1226.
    24. Harald Ulrik Sverdrup & Kristin Vala Ragnarsdottir & Deniz Koca, 2017. "Integrated Modelling of the Global Cobalt Extraction, Supply, Price and Depletion of Extractable Resources Using the WORLD6 Model," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 1-29, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tobias Naegler & Lisa Becker & Jens Buchgeister & Wolfgang Hauser & Heidi Hottenroth & Tobias Junne & Ulrike Lehr & Oliver Scheel & Ricarda Schmidt-Scheele & Sonja Simon & Claudia Sutardhio & Ingela T, 2021. "Integrated Multidimensional Sustainability Assessment of Energy System Transformation Pathways," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-28, May.
    2. Devi Radhika & Archana Shivakumar & Deepak R. Kasai & Ravindranadh Koutavarapu & Shaik Gouse Peera, 2022. "Microbial Electrolysis Cell as a Diverse Technology: Overview of Prospective Applications, Advancements, and Challenges," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-19, April.
    3. Ren, Kaipeng & Tang, Xu & Wang, Peng & Willerström, Jakob & Höök, Mikael, 2021. "Bridging energy and metal sustainability: Insights from China’s wind power development up to 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    4. Liang, Yanan & Kleijn, René & van der Voet, Ester, 2023. "Increase in demand for critical materials under IEA Net-Zero emission by 2050 scenario," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 346(C).
    5. Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Breyer, Christian, 2024. "Role of smart charging of electric vehicles and vehicle-to-grid in integrated renewables-based energy systems on country level," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    6. Solomon, A.A. & Sahin, Hasret & Breyer, Christian, 2024. "The pitfall in designing future electrical power systems without considering energy return on investment in planning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 369(C).
    7. Oliver Heidrich & Alistair C. Ford & Richard J. Dawson & David A. C. Manning & Eugene Mohareb & Marco Raugei & Joris Baars & Mohammad Ali Rajaeifar, 2022. "LAYERS: A Decision-Support Tool to Illustrate and Assess the Supply and Value Chain for the Energy Transition," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-19, June.
    8. Ram, Manish & Osorio-Aravena, Juan Carlos & Aghahosseini, Arman & Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Breyer, Christian, 2022. "Job creation during a climate compliant global energy transition across the power, heat, transport, and desalination sectors by 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PA).
    9. Li, Yizhou & Wang, Yibo & Ge, Jianping, 2023. "Tracing the material flows of dysprosium in China from 2010 to 2020: An investigation of the partition characteristics of different rare earth mining areas," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    10. Han, Sun & Zhenghao, Meng & Meilin, Li & Xiaohui, Yang & Xiaoxue, Wang, 2023. "Global supply sustainability assessment of critical metals for clean energy technology," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    11. Teixeira, Bernardo & Brito, Miguel Centeno & Mateus, António, 2024. "Raw materials for the Portuguese decarbonization roadmap: The case of solar photovoltaics and wind energy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    12. Osorio-Aravena, Juan Carlos & Aghahosseini, Arman & Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Caldera, Upeksha & Ghorbani, Narges & Mensah, Theophilus Nii Odai & Khalili, Siavash & Muñoz-Cerón, Emilio & Breyer, Christian, 2021. "The impact of renewable energy and sector coupling on the pathway towards a sustainable energy system in Chile," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    13. Diana Roa & Knut Einar Rosendahl, 2023. "Policies for Material Circularity: the Case of Lithium," Circular Economy and Sustainability, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 373-405, March.
    14. Xiao, Shijiang & Geng, Yong & Rui, Xue & Gao, Ziyan & Su, Chang & Yao, Tianli & Zhong, Chen, 2024. "Anthropogenic cycles of praseodymium in China: 2000–2020," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    15. Ozawa, Akito & Morimoto, Shinichirou & Hatayama, Hiroki & Anzai, Yurie, 2023. "Energy–materials nexus of electrified vehicle penetration in Japan: A study on energy transition and cobalt flow," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    16. Haas, Jannik & Prieto-Miranda, Luis & Ghorbani, Narges & Breyer, Christian, 2022. "Revisiting the potential of pumped-hydro energy storage: A method to detect economically attractive sites," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 182-193.
    17. Tom Terlouw & Lorenzo Rosa & Christian Bauer & Russell McKenna, 2024. "Future hydrogen economies imply environmental trade-offs and a supply-demand mismatch," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, December.
    18. Shi, Qing & Sun, Xiaoqi & Xu, Man & Wang, Mengjiao, 2022. "The multiplex network structure of global cobalt industry chain," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ren, Kaipeng & Tang, Xu & Höök, Mikael, 2021. "Evaluating metal constraints for photovoltaics: Perspectives from China’s PV development," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(PA).
    2. Liang, Yanan & Kleijn, René & Tukker, Arnold & van der Voet, Ester, 2022. "Material requirements for low-carbon energy technologies: A quantitative review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    3. Le Boulzec, Hugo & Delannoy, Louis & Andrieu, Baptiste & Verzier, François & Vidal, Olivier & Mathy, Sandrine, 2022. "Dynamic modeling of global fossil fuel infrastructure and materials needs: Overcoming a lack of available data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 326(C).
    4. Elshkaki, Ayman, 2020. "Long-term analysis of critical materials in future vehicles electrification in China and their national and global implications," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    5. Elshkaki, Ayman, 2019. "Material-energy-water-carbon nexus in China’s electricity generation system up to 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    6. Hu, Xueyue & Wang, Chunying & Elshkaki, Ayman, 2024. "Material-energy Nexus: A systematic literature review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    7. Elshkaki, Ayman & Shen, Lei, 2019. "Energy-material nexus: The impacts of national and international energy scenarios on critical metals use in China up to 2050 and their global implications," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 903-917.
    8. Ren, Kaipeng & Tang, Xu & Wang, Peng & Willerström, Jakob & Höök, Mikael, 2021. "Bridging energy and metal sustainability: Insights from China’s wind power development up to 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    9. Song, Huiling & Wang, Chang & Sun, Kun & Geng, Hongjun & Zuo, Lyushui, 2023. "Material efficiency strategies across the industrial chain to secure indium availability for global carbon neutrality," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    10. Teixeira, Bernardo & Brito, Miguel Centeno & Mateus, António, 2024. "Raw materials for the Portuguese decarbonization roadmap: The case of solar photovoltaics and wind energy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    11. Wang, Peng & Chen, Li-Yang & Ge, Jian-Ping & Cai, Wenjia & Chen, Wei-Qiang, 2019. "Incorporating critical material cycles into metal-energy nexus of China’s 2050 renewable transition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    12. He, Rui-fang & Zhong, Mei-rui & Huang, Jian-bai, 2021. "The dynamic effects of renewable-energy and fossil-fuel technological progress on metal consumption in the electric power industry," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    13. Valero, Alicia & Valero, Antonio & Calvo, Guiomar & Ortego, Abel, 2018. "Material bottlenecks in the future development of green technologies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 178-200.
    14. Beibei Che & Chaofeng Shao & Zhirui Lu & Binghong Qian & Sihan Chen, 2022. "Mineral Requirements for China’s Energy Transition to 2060—Focus on Electricity and Transportation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-23, December.
    15. Tokimatsu, Koji & Höök, Mikael & McLellan, Benjamin & Wachtmeister, Henrik & Murakami, Shinsuke & Yasuoka, Rieko & Nishio, Masahiro, 2018. "Energy modeling approach to the global energy-mineral nexus: Exploring metal requirements and the well-below 2 °C target with 100 percent renewable energy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C), pages 1158-1175.
    16. Zheng, Biao & Zhang, Yuquan & Chen, Yufeng, 2021. "Asymmetric connectedness and dynamic spillovers between renewable energy and rare earth markets in China: Evidence from firms’ high-frequency data," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    17. André Månberger, 2021. "Reduced Use of Fossil Fuels can Reduce Supply of Critical Resources," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 1-15, June.
    18. Nassar, Nedal T. & Wilburn, David R. & Goonan, Thomas G., 2016. "Byproduct metal requirements for U.S. wind and solar photovoltaic electricity generation up to the year 2040 under various Clean Power Plan scenarios," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 1209-1226.
    19. Kim Maya Yavor & Vanessa Bach & Matthias Finkbeiner, 2021. "Resource Assessment of Renewable Energy Systems—A Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-19, May.
    20. Jones, Ben & Elliott, Robert J.R. & Nguyen-Tien, Viet, 2020. "The EV revolution: The road ahead for critical raw materials demand," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:211:y:2020:i:c:s0360544220316406. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.