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Assessing the Long-Term Global Sustainability of the Production and Supply for Stainless Steel

Author

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  • Harald Ulrik Sverdrup

    (University of Iceland)

  • Anna Hulda Olafsdottir

    (University of Iceland)

Abstract

The integrated systems dynamics model WORLD6 was used to assess long-term supply of stainless steel to society with consideration of the available extractable amount of raw materials. This was done handling four metals simultaneously (iron, chromium, manganese, nickel). We assessed amounts of stainless steel that can be produced in response to demand and for how long, considering the supply of the alloying metals manganese, chromium and nickel. The extractable amounts of nickel are modest, and this puts a limit on how much stainless steel of different qualities can be produced. The simulations indicate that nickel is the key element for stainless steel production, and the issue of scarcity or not depends on how well the nickel supply and recycling systems are managed. The study shows that there is a significant risk that the stainless steel production will reach its maximum capacity around 2055 and slowly decline after that. The model indicates that stainless steel of the type containing Mn–Cr–Ni will have a production peak in about 2040, and the production will decline after 2045 because of nickel supply limitations. Production rates of metals like cobalt, molybdenum, tantalum or vanadium are too small to be viable substitutes for the missing nickel. These metals are limiting on their own as important ingredients for super-alloys and specialty steels and other technological applications. With increased stainless steel price because of scarcity, we may expect recycling to go up and soften the decline somewhat. At recycling degrees above 80%, the supply of nickel, chromium and manganese will be sufficient for several centuries.

Suggested Citation

  • Harald Ulrik Sverdrup & Anna Hulda Olafsdottir, 2019. "Assessing the Long-Term Global Sustainability of the Production and Supply for Stainless Steel," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 1-29, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:bioerq:v:4:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s41247-019-0056-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s41247-019-0056-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stefan Pauliuk & Richard Wood & Edgar G. Hertwich, 2015. "Dynamic Models of Fixed Capital Stocks and Their Application in Industrial Ecology," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 19(1), pages 104-116, February.
    2. Kristin Vala Ragnarsdottir, 2012. "Assessing Long Term Sustainability of Global Supply of Natural Resources and Materials," Chapters, in: Chaouki Ghenai (ed.), Sustainable Development - Energy, Engineering and Technologies - Manufacturing and Environment, IntechOpen.
    3. Harald Ulrik Sverdrup & Anna Hulda Olafsdottir, 2018. "A System Dynamics Model Assessment of the Supply of Niobium and Tantalum Using the WORLD6 Model," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 1-35, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Le Boulzec, Hugo & Delannoy, Louis & Andrieu, Baptiste & Verzier, François & Vidal, Olivier & Mathy, Sandrine, 2022. "Dynamic modeling of global fossil fuel infrastructure and materials needs: Overcoming a lack of available data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 326(C).
    2. Raza, A. & Deen, K.M. & Asselin, E. & Haider, W., 2022. "A review on the electrocatalytic dissociation of water over stainless steel: Hydrogen and oxygen evolution reactions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    3. Solé, J. & Samsó, R. & García-Ladona, E. & García-Olivares, A. & Ballabrera-Poy, J. & Madurell, T. & Turiel, A. & Osychenko, O. & Álvarez, D. & Bardi, U. & Baumann, M. & Buchmann, K. & Capellán-Pérez,, 2020. "Modelling the renewable transition: Scenarios and pathways for a decarbonized future using pymedeas, a new open-source energy systems model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    4. Junne, Tobias & Wulff, Niklas & Breyer, Christian & Naegler, Tobias, 2020. "Critical materials in global low-carbon energy scenarios: The case for neodymium, dysprosium, lithium, and cobalt," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).

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