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Future hydrogen economies imply environmental trade-offs and a supply-demand mismatch

Author

Listed:
  • Tom Terlouw

    (ETH Zurich
    ETH Zurich
    Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis)

  • Lorenzo Rosa

    (Carnegie Institution for Science)

  • Christian Bauer

    (Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis)

  • Russell McKenna

    (ETH Zurich
    Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis)

Abstract

Hydrogen will play a key role in decarbonizing economies. Here, we quantify the costs and environmental impacts of possible large-scale hydrogen economies, using four prospective hydrogen demand scenarios for 2050 ranging from 111–614 megatonne H2 year−1. Our findings confirm that renewable (solar photovoltaic and wind) electrolytic hydrogen production generates at least 50–90% fewer greenhouse gas emissions than fossil-fuel-based counterparts without carbon capture and storage. However, electrolytic hydrogen production could still result in considerable environmental burdens, which requires reassessing the concept of green hydrogen. Our global analysis highlights a few salient points: (i) a mismatch between economical hydrogen production and hydrogen demand across continents seems likely; (ii) region-specific limitations are inevitable since possibly more than 60% of large hydrogen production potentials are concentrated in water-scarce regions; and (iii) upscaling electrolytic hydrogen production could be limited by renewable power generation and natural resource potentials.

Suggested Citation

  • Tom Terlouw & Lorenzo Rosa & Christian Bauer & Russell McKenna, 2024. "Future hydrogen economies imply environmental trade-offs and a supply-demand mismatch," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-51251-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-51251-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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