IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v183y2016icp1209-1226.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Byproduct metal requirements for U.S. wind and solar photovoltaic electricity generation up to the year 2040 under various Clean Power Plan scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Nassar, Nedal T.
  • Wilburn, David R.
  • Goonan, Thomas G.

Abstract

The United States has and will likely continue to obtain an increasing share of its electricity from solar photovoltaics (PV) and wind power, especially under the Clean Power Plan (CPP). The need for additional solar PV modules and wind turbines will, among other things, result in greater demand for a number of minor metals that are produced mainly or only as byproducts. In this analysis, the quantities of 11 byproduct metals (Ag, Cd, Te, In, Ga, Se, Ge, Nd, Pr, Dy, and Tb) required for wind turbines with rare-earth permanent magnets and four solar PV technologies are assessed through the year 2040. Three key uncertainties (electricity generation capacities, technology market shares, and material intensities) are varied to develop 42 scenarios for each byproduct metal. The results indicate that byproduct metal requirements vary significantly across technologies, scenarios, and over time. In certain scenarios, the requirements are projected to become a significant portion of current primary production. This is especially the case for Te, Ge, Dy, In, and Tb under the more aggressive scenarios of increasing market share and conservative material intensities. Te and Dy are, perhaps, of most concern given their substitution limitations. In certain years, the differences in byproduct metal requirements between the technology market share and material intensity scenarios are greater than those between the various CPP and No CPP scenarios. Cumulatively across years 2016–2040, the various CPP scenarios are estimated to require 15–43% more byproduct metals than the No CPP scenario depending on the specific byproduct metal and scenario. Increasing primary production via enhanced recovery rates of the byproduct metals during the beneficiation and enrichment operations, improving end-of-life recycling rates, and developing substitutes are important strategies that may help meet the increased demand for these byproduct metals.

Suggested Citation

  • Nassar, Nedal T. & Wilburn, David R. & Goonan, Thomas G., 2016. "Byproduct metal requirements for U.S. wind and solar photovoltaic electricity generation up to the year 2040 under various Clean Power Plan scenarios," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 1209-1226.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:183:y:2016:i:c:p:1209-1226
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.08.062
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261916311497
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.08.062?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fthenakis, Vasilis, 2009. "Sustainability of photovoltaics: The case for thin-film solar cells," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(9), pages 2746-2750, December.
    2. Hoenderdaal, Sander & Tercero Espinoza, Luis & Marscheider-Weidemann, Frank & Graus, Wina, 2013. "Can a dysprosium shortage threaten green energy technologies?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 344-355.
    3. Feltrin, Andrea & Freundlich, Alex, 2008. "Material considerations for terawatt level deployment of photovoltaics," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 180-185.
    4. Kim, Junbeum & Guillaume, Bertrand & Chung, Jinwook & Hwang, Yongwoo, 2015. "Critical and precious materials consumption and requirement in wind energy system in the EU 27," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 327-334.
    5. Grandell, Leena & Thorenz, Andrea, 2014. "Silver supply risk analysis for the solar sector," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 157-165.
    6. Fthenakis, Vasilis M., 2000. "End-of-life management and recycling of PV modules," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(14), pages 1051-1058, November.
    7. Frenzel, Max & Ketris, Marina P. & Seifert, Thomas & Gutzmer, Jens, 2016. "On the current and future availability of gallium," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 38-50.
    8. Davidsson, Simon & Grandell, Leena & Wachtmeister, Henrik & Höök, Mikael, 2014. "Growth curves and sustained commissioning modelling of renewable energy: Investigating resource constraints for wind energy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 767-776.
    9. Max Marwede & Armin Reller, 2014. "Estimation of Life Cycle Material Costs of Cadmium Telluride– and Copper Indium Gallium Diselenide–Photovoltaic Absorber Materials based on Life Cycle Material Flows," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 18(2), pages 254-267, April.
    10. Candelise, Chiara & Speirs, Jamie F. & Gross, Robert J.K., 2011. "Materials availability for thin film (TF) PV technologies development: A real concern?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(9), pages 4972-4981.
    11. Viebahn, Peter & Soukup, Ole & Samadi, Sascha & Teubler, Jens & Wiesen, Klaus & Ritthoff, Michael, 2015. "Assessing the need for critical minerals to shift the German energy system towards a high proportion of renewables," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 655-671.
    12. McDonald, Alan & Schrattenholzer, Leo, 2001. "Learning rates for energy technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 255-261, March.
    13. Andersson, Bjorn A. & Jacobsson, Staffan, 2000. "Monitoring and assessing technology choice: the case of solar cells," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(14), pages 1037-1049, November.
    14. Elshkaki, Ayman & Graedel, T.E., 2015. "Solar cell metals and their hosts: A tale of oversupply and undersupply," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 167-177.
    15. Bustamante, Michele L. & Gaustad, Gabrielle, 2014. "Challenges in assessment of clean energy supply-chains based on byproduct minerals: A case study of tellurium use in thin film photovoltaics," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 397-414.
    16. Jacobson, Mark Z. & Delucchi, Mark A., 2011. "Providing all global energy with wind, water, and solar power, Part I: Technologies, energy resources, quantities and areas of infrastructure, and materials," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1154-1169, March.
    17. Elshkaki, Ayman & Graedel, T.E., 2014. "Dysprosium, the balance problem, and wind power technology," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 548-559.
    18. Christina Licht & Laura Talens Peiró & Gara Villalba, 2015. "Global Substance Flow Analysis of Gallium, Germanium, and Indium: Quantification of Extraction, Uses, and Dissipative Losses within their Anthropogenic Cycles," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 19(5), pages 890-903, October.
    19. Rubin, Edward S. & Azevedo, Inês M.L. & Jaramillo, Paulina & Yeh, Sonia, 2015. "A review of learning rates for electricity supply technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 198-218.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Elshkaki, Ayman & Graedel, T.E., 2015. "Solar cell metals and their hosts: A tale of oversupply and undersupply," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 167-177.
    2. Helbig, Christoph & Bradshaw, Alex M. & Kolotzek, Christoph & Thorenz, Andrea & Tuma, Axel, 2016. "Supply risks associated with CdTe and CIGS thin-film photovoltaics," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 422-433.
    3. Liang, Yanan & Kleijn, René & Tukker, Arnold & van der Voet, Ester, 2022. "Material requirements for low-carbon energy technologies: A quantitative review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    4. Ren, Kaipeng & Tang, Xu & Höök, Mikael, 2021. "Evaluating metal constraints for photovoltaics: Perspectives from China’s PV development," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(PA).
    5. Wang, Peng & Chen, Li-Yang & Ge, Jian-Ping & Cai, Wenjia & Chen, Wei-Qiang, 2019. "Incorporating critical material cycles into metal-energy nexus of China’s 2050 renewable transition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    6. Tokimatsu, Koji & Wachtmeister, Henrik & McLellan, Benjamin & Davidsson, Simon & Murakami, Shinsuke & Höök, Mikael & Yasuoka, Rieko & Nishio, Masahiro, 2017. "Energy modeling approach to the global energy-mineral nexus: A first look at metal requirements and the 2°C target," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 207(C), pages 494-509.
    7. Valero, Alicia & Valero, Antonio & Calvo, Guiomar & Ortego, Abel, 2018. "Material bottlenecks in the future development of green technologies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 178-200.
    8. Davidsson, Simon & Höök, Mikael, 2017. "Material requirements and availability for multi-terawatt deployment of photovoltaics," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 574-582.
    9. Hu, Xueyue & Wang, Chunying & Elshkaki, Ayman, 2024. "Material-energy Nexus: A systematic literature review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    10. Leena Grandell & Mikael Höök, 2015. "Assessing Rare Metal Availability Challenges for Solar Energy Technologies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(9), pages 1-20, August.
    11. Junne, Tobias & Wulff, Niklas & Breyer, Christian & Naegler, Tobias, 2020. "Critical materials in global low-carbon energy scenarios: The case for neodymium, dysprosium, lithium, and cobalt," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    12. Ren, Kaipeng & Tang, Xu & Wang, Peng & Willerström, Jakob & Höök, Mikael, 2021. "Bridging energy and metal sustainability: Insights from China’s wind power development up to 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    13. Song, Huiling & Wang, Chang & Sun, Kun & Geng, Hongjun & Zuo, Lyushui, 2023. "Material efficiency strategies across the industrial chain to secure indium availability for global carbon neutrality," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    14. Zheng, Biao & Zhang, Yuquan & Chen, Yufeng, 2021. "Asymmetric connectedness and dynamic spillovers between renewable energy and rare earth markets in China: Evidence from firms’ high-frequency data," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    15. Steinbuks, Jevgenijs & Satija, Gaurav & Zhao, Fu, 2017. "Sustainability of solar electricity: The role of endogenous resource substitution and cross-sectoral responses," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 218-232.
    16. Goe, Michele & Gaustad, Gabrielle, 2014. "Identifying critical materials for photovoltaics in the US: A multi-metric approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 387-396.
    17. Ravikumar, Dwarakanath & Malghan, Deepak, 2013. "Material constraints for indigenous production of CdTe PV: Evidence from a Monte Carlo experiment using India's National Solar Mission Benchmarks," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 393-403.
    18. Solé, Jordi & García-Olivares, Antonio & Turiel, Antonio & Ballabrera-Poy, Joaquim, 2018. "Renewable transitions and the net energy from oil liquids: A scenarios study," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(PA), pages 258-271.
    19. Candelise, Chiara & Speirs, Jamie F. & Gross, Robert J.K., 2011. "Materials availability for thin film (TF) PV technologies development: A real concern?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(9), pages 4972-4981.
    20. Kim, Junbeum & Guillaume, Bertrand & Chung, Jinwook & Hwang, Yongwoo, 2015. "Critical and precious materials consumption and requirement in wind energy system in the EU 27," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 327-334.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:183:y:2016:i:c:p:1209-1226. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.