IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v280y2020ics0306261920305845.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The EV revolution: The road ahead for critical raw materials demand

Author

Listed:
  • Jones, Ben
  • Elliott, Robert J.R.
  • Nguyen-Tien, Viet

Abstract

Mass adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is anticipated in the years ahead, driven primarily by policy incentives, rising incomes, and technological advancements. However, mass adoption is predicated on the availability and affordability of the raw materials required to facilitate this transformation. The implications of material shortages are currently not well understood and previous research tends to be limited by weak representation of technological change, a lack of regional disaggregation, often inflexible and opaque assumptions and drivers, and a failure to place insights in the broader context of the raw materials industries. This paper proposes a CoMIT (Cost, Macro, Infrastructure, Technology) model that can be used to analyse the impact of mass EV adoption on critical raw materials demand and forecasts that, by 2030, demand for vehicles will increase by 27.4%, of which 13.3% will be EVs. The model also predicts large increases in demand for certain base metals, including a 37 and 18-fold increase in demand for cobalt and lithium (relative to 2015 levels), respectively. Without major changes in certain technologies, the cobalt and lithium supply chains could seriously constrain the widespread deployment of EVs. Significant demand increases are also predicted for copper, chrome and aluminium. The results also highlight the importance of China in driving demand for EVs and the critical materials needed to produce them.

Suggested Citation

  • Jones, Ben & Elliott, Robert J.R. & Nguyen-Tien, Viet, 2020. "The EV revolution: The road ahead for critical raw materials demand," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:280:y:2020:i:c:s0306261920305845
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.115072
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261920305845
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.115072?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fthenakis, Vasilis, 2009. "Sustainability of photovoltaics: The case for thin-film solar cells," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(9), pages 2746-2750, December.
    2. Grosjean, Camille & Miranda, Pamela Herrera & Perrin, Marion & Poggi, Philippe, 2012. "Assessment of world lithium resources and consequences of their geographic distribution on the expected development of the electric vehicle industry," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 1735-1744.
    3. Tokimatsu, Koji & Wachtmeister, Henrik & McLellan, Benjamin & Davidsson, Simon & Murakami, Shinsuke & Höök, Mikael & Yasuoka, Rieko & Nishio, Masahiro, 2017. "Energy modeling approach to the global energy-mineral nexus: A first look at metal requirements and the 2°C target," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 207(C), pages 494-509.
    4. Fizaine, Florian & Court, Victor, 2015. "Renewable electricity producing technologies and metal depletion: A sensitivity analysis using the EROI," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 106-118.
    5. Hutchinson, Tim & Burgess, Stuart & Herrmann, Guido, 2014. "Current hybrid-electric powertrain architectures: Applying empirical design data to life cycle assessment and whole-life cost analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 314-329.
    6. Vikström, Hanna & Davidsson, Simon & Höök, Mikael, 2013. "Lithium availability and future production outlooks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 252-266.
    7. Zhang, Guidong & Li, Zhong & Zhang, Bo & Halang, Wolfgang A., 2018. "Power electronics converters: Past, present and future," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 2028-2044.
    8. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    9. Florian Fizaine & Victor Court, 2015. "Renewable electricity producing technologies and metal depletion: a sensitivity analysis using the EROI," Post-Print halshs-01227860, HAL.
    10. Amela Ajanovic & Reinhard Haas, 2018. "Electric vehicles: solution or new problem?," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 7-22, December.
    11. Speirs, Jamie & Contestabile, Marcello & Houari, Yassine & Gross, Robert, 2014. "The future of lithium availability for electric vehicle batteries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 183-193.
    12. Paul W. Gruber & Pablo A. Medina & Gregory A. Keoleian & Stephen E. Kesler & Mark P. Everson & Timothy J. Wallington, 2011. "Global Lithium Availability," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 15(5), pages 760-775, October.
    13. Kleijn, René & van der Voet, Ester & Kramer, Gert Jan & van Oers, Lauran & van der Giesen, Coen, 2011. "Metal requirements of low-carbon power generation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 5640-5648.
    14. Grandell, Leena & Lehtilä, Antti & Kivinen, Mari & Koljonen, Tiina & Kihlman, Susanna & Lauri, Laura S., 2016. "Role of critical metals in the future markets of clean energy technologies," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 53-62.
    15. Hache, Emmanuel & Seck, Gondia Sokhna & Simoen, Marine & Bonnet, Clément & Carcanague, Samuel, 2019. "Critical raw materials and transportation sector electrification: A detailed bottom-up analysis in world transport," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C), pages 6-25.
    16. Sheu, Jiuh-Biing & Chen, Yenming J., 2014. "Transportation and economies of scale in recycling low-value materials," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 65-76.
    17. Al-Alawi, Baha M. & Bradley, Thomas H., 2013. "Total cost of ownership, payback, and consumer preference modeling of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 488-506.
    18. Xu, Min & Meng, Qiang & Liu, Kai & Yamamoto, Toshiyuki, 2017. "Joint charging mode and location choice model for battery electric vehicle users," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 68-86.
    19. Bubeck, Steffen & Tomaschek, Jan & Fahl, Ulrich, 2016. "Perspectives of electric mobility: Total cost of ownership of electric vehicles in Germany," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 63-77.
    20. Yang, Chi-Jen, 2009. "An impending platinum crisis and its implications for the future of the automobile," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1805-1808, May.
    21. Martinez-Laserna, E. & Gandiaga, I. & Sarasketa-Zabala, E. & Badeda, J. & Stroe, D.-I. & Swierczynski, M. & Goikoetxea, A., 2018. "Battery second life: Hype, hope or reality? A critical review of the state of the art," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 701-718.
    22. Mahmoudzadeh Andwari, Amin & Pesiridis, Apostolos & Rajoo, Srithar & Martinez-Botas, Ricardo & Esfahanian, Vahid, 2017. "A review of Battery Electric Vehicle technology and readiness levels," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 414-430.
    23. Danielis, Romeo & Giansoldati, Marco & Rotaris, Lucia, 2018. "A probabilistic total cost of ownership model to evaluate the current and future prospects of electric cars uptake in Italy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 268-281.
    24. Zhao, Xin & Doering, Otto C. & Tyner, Wallace E., 2015. "The economic competitiveness and emissions of battery electric vehicles in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 666-675.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tokimatsu, Koji & Höök, Mikael & McLellan, Benjamin & Wachtmeister, Henrik & Murakami, Shinsuke & Yasuoka, Rieko & Nishio, Masahiro, 2018. "Energy modeling approach to the global energy-mineral nexus: Exploring metal requirements and the well-below 2 °C target with 100 percent renewable energy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C), pages 1158-1175.
    2. Vincent Moreau & Piero Carlo Dos Reis & François Vuille, 2019. "Enough Metals? Resource Constraints to Supply a Fully Renewable Energy System," Resources, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-18, January.
    3. Junne, Tobias & Wulff, Niklas & Breyer, Christian & Naegler, Tobias, 2020. "Critical materials in global low-carbon energy scenarios: The case for neodymium, dysprosium, lithium, and cobalt," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    4. Liang, Yanan & Kleijn, René & Tukker, Arnold & van der Voet, Ester, 2022. "Material requirements for low-carbon energy technologies: A quantitative review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    5. Simon, Bálint & Ziemann, Saskia & Weil, Marcel, 2015. "Potential metal requirement of active materials in lithium-ion battery cells of electric vehicles and its impact on reserves: Focus on Europe," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 104(PA), pages 300-310.
    6. He, Rui-fang & Zhong, Mei-rui & Huang, Jian-bai, 2021. "The dynamic effects of renewable-energy and fossil-fuel technological progress on metal consumption in the electric power industry," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    7. Sverdrup, Harald Ulrik, 2016. "Modelling global extraction, supply, price and depletion of the extractable geological resources with the LITHIUM model," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 112-129.
    8. Elshkaki, Ayman, 2020. "Long-term analysis of critical materials in future vehicles electrification in China and their national and global implications," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    9. Santos, Georgina & Rembalski, Sebastian, 2021. "Do electric vehicles need subsidies in the UK?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    10. Valero, Alicia & Valero, Antonio & Calvo, Guiomar & Ortego, Abel, 2018. "Material bottlenecks in the future development of green technologies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 178-200.
    11. Ren, Kaipeng & Tang, Xu & Höök, Mikael, 2021. "Evaluating metal constraints for photovoltaics: Perspectives from China’s PV development," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(PA).
    12. Elshkaki, Ayman, 2019. "Material-energy-water-carbon nexus in China’s electricity generation system up to 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    13. Hu, Xueyue & Wang, Chunying & Elshkaki, Ayman, 2024. "Material-energy Nexus: A systematic literature review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    14. Teixeira, Bernardo & Brito, Miguel Centeno & Mateus, António, 2024. "Raw materials for the Portuguese decarbonization roadmap: The case of solar photovoltaics and wind energy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    15. Hao, Xu & Lin, Zhenhong & Wang, Hewu & Ou, Shiqi & Ouyang, Minggao, 2020. "Range cost-effectiveness of plug-in electric vehicle for heterogeneous consumers: An expanded total ownership cost approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    16. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Monge, Manuel, 2019. "Lithium: Production and estimated consumption. Evidence of persistence," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 198-202.
    17. Zerrahn, Alexander, 2017. "Wind Power and Externalities," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 245-260.
    18. Diao, Qinghua & Sun, Wei & Yuan, Xinmei & Li, Lili & Zheng, Zhi, 2016. "Life-cycle private-cost-based competitiveness analysis of electric vehicles in China considering the intangible cost of traffic policies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 567-578.
    19. Daniele Stampatori & Pier Paolo Raimondi & Michel Noussan, 2020. "Li-Ion Batteries: A Review of a Key Technology for Transport Decarbonization," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-23, May.
    20. Guohua, Yuan & Elshkaki, Ayman & Xiao, Xi, 2021. "Dynamic analysis of future nickel demand, supply, and associated materials, energy, water, and carbon emissions in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:280:y:2020:i:c:s0306261920305845. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.