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Integrated Modelling of the Global Cobalt Extraction, Supply, Price and Depletion of Extractable Resources Using the WORLD6 Model

Author

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  • Harald Ulrik Sverdrup

    (University of Iceland)

  • Kristin Vala Ragnarsdottir

    (University of Iceland)

  • Deniz Koca

    (Lund University)

Abstract

The global cobalt cycle in society was modelled using an integrated systems dynamics model, WORLD6, integrating several earlier system dynamics models developed by the authors. The COBALT sub-model was used to assess the long-term sufficiency of the available extractable cobalt and address the effect of different degrees of recycling on cobalt supply. The extraction of cobalt is mostly dependent on the extraction of copper, nickel and platinum group metals. The ultimately recoverable resources estimate was 32 million ton on land and 34 million ton on the ocean floors, a total of 66 million ton, significantly larger than earlier estimates. It is very uncertain how much of the cobalt, detected in ocean floor deposits, is extractable. The present use of cobalt by society is diverse and about half the total cobalt production to the market is in the form of metallic cobalt. The simulations show that cobalt extraction is predicted to reach a peak in the years 2025–2030 and that the supply will reach a peak level in 2040–2050. Three different global population scenarios were used (high, middle, low). We predict that the supply of cobalt will decline slowly with about 3–5% per year after 2050. The present use of cobalt in chemicals, colours, rechargeable batteries and super-alloys shows a low degree of recycling and the systemic losses are significant. After 2170, cobalt will have run out under business-as-usual scenario. The present business-as-usual cobalt use in society is not sustainable. Too much cobalt is lost if only market mechanisms are expected to improve recycling, and unnecessary cobalt is wasted if no policy actions are taken. Increased recycling and better conservation will be able to improve the supply situation, but this will need active policy participation beyond what market mechanisms can do alone. To conserve cobalt for coming generations, present policies must be changed within the next few decades. The sooner policies change, the better for future generations.

Suggested Citation

  • Harald Ulrik Sverdrup & Kristin Vala Ragnarsdottir & Deniz Koca, 2017. "Integrated Modelling of the Global Cobalt Extraction, Supply, Price and Depletion of Extractable Resources Using the WORLD6 Model," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 1-29, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:bioerq:v:2:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s41247-017-0017-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s41247-017-0017-0
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    2. Rachidi, Ntebatše R. & Nwaila, Glen T. & Zhang, Steven E. & Bourdeau, Julie E. & Ghorbani, Yousef, 2021. "Assessing cobalt supply sustainability through production forecasting and implications for green energy policies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    3. Marc van der Meide & Carina Harpprecht & Stephen Northey & Yongxiang Yang & Bernhard Steubing, 2022. "Effects of the energy transition on environmental impacts of cobalt supply: A prospective life cycle assessment study on future supply of cobalt," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 26(5), pages 1631-1645, October.
    4. Liu, Wei & Li, Xin & Liu, Chunyan & Wang, Minxi & Liu, Litao, 2023. "Resilience assessment of the cobalt supply chain in China under the impact of electric vehicles and geopolitical supply risks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    5. Anna Hulda Olafsdottir & Harald Ulrik Sverdrup, 2020. "Assessing the Past and Future Sustainability of Global Helium Resources, Extraction, Supply and Use, Using the Integrated Assessment Model WORLD7," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 1-18, June.
    6. Becker, Jonathon M., 2021. "General equilibrium impacts on the U.S. economy of a disruption to Chinese cobalt supply," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    7. Han, Sun & Zhenghao, Meng & Meilin, Li & Xiaohui, Yang & Xiaoxue, Wang, 2023. "Global supply sustainability assessment of critical metals for clean energy technology," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    8. Junne, Tobias & Wulff, Niklas & Breyer, Christian & Naegler, Tobias, 2020. "Critical materials in global low-carbon energy scenarios: The case for neodymium, dysprosium, lithium, and cobalt," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).

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