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The Effects of Monetary Policy on Capital Flows: An Emerging Market Survey

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  • Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio
  • Arango-Lozano, Lucía
  • Castelblanco, Geraldine
  • Fajardo-Baquero, Nicolás
  • Ruiz-Sanchez, Maria A.

Abstract

We investigate whether central banks from emerging markets can attract or redirect capital flows, by bringing together the entire empirical literature into the first quan- titative meta-analysis. We dissect policy effects based on the origin of the monetary shock and type of flow. Further, we assess whether policy effects depend on factors that drive investors to either search for yields or fly to safety. Our findings indicate a mean effect size of inflows in the amount of 0.09% of quarterly GDP in response to either a 100-basis point (bp) increase in the domestic policy rate or a 100 bp reduction in the external rate. However, the effect size under a fixed effect specification is much higher (0.2%). Factors that attract inflows include output growth, foreign exchange reserves, and a more flexible exchange rate regime, while factors that deter flows include local and global risks. Finally, we find that banking flows are the most responsive to monetary policy, while foreign direct investments are the least responsive.

Suggested Citation

  • Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio & Arango-Lozano, Lucía & Castelblanco, Geraldine & Fajardo-Baquero, Nicolás & Ruiz-Sanchez, Maria A., 2024. "The Effects of Monetary Policy on Capital Flows: An Emerging Market Survey," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:62:y:2024:i:c:s1566014124000621
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2024.101167
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Meta-analysis; Capital flows; Monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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