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Emerging market local currency bond yields and foreign holdings – A fortune or misfortune?

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  • Ebeke, Christian
  • Lu, Yinqiu

Abstract

The paper shows that foreign holdings of local currency government bonds in emerging market countries (EMs) have reduced bond yields but have somewhat increased yield volatility. Econometric analyses conducted from a sample of 13 EMs demonstrate that these results are robust and causal. We use an identification strategy exploiting the geography-based measure of EMs financial remoteness vis-à-vis major offshore financial centers as an instrumental variable for the foreign holdings variable. The results also show that, in countries with weak fiscal positions, foreign holdings are greatly associated with increased yield level. A case study using Poland data elaborates on the cross country findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Ebeke, Christian & Lu, Yinqiu, 2015. "Emerging market local currency bond yields and foreign holdings – A fortune or misfortune?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 203-219.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:59:y:2015:i:c:p:203-219
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2015.07.006
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    Cited by:

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    2. Jens H. E. Christensen & Eric Fischer & Patrick Shultz, 2019. "Bond Flows and Liquidity: Do Foreigners Matter?," Working Paper Series 2019-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    3. Gadanecz, Blaise & Miyajima, Ken & Shu, Chang, 2018. "Emerging market local currency sovereign bond yields: The role of exchange rate risk," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 371-401.
    4. Amr Hosny, 2020. "Nonresident holdings of domestic debt in Nigeria: Internal or external driven?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 32(3), pages 472-485, September.
    5. Yildirim, Zekeriya, 2016. "Global financial conditions and asset markets: Evidence from fragile emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 208-220.
    6. Umar, Zaghum & Iqbal, Najaf & Teplova, Tamara & Tan, Duojiao, 2024. "Dynamic impact of the US yield curve on green bonds: Navigating through recent crises," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    7. Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio & Arango-Lozano, Lucía & Castelblanco, Geraldine & Fajardo-Baquero, Nicolás & Ruiz-Sánchez, María Alejandra, 2022. "The effects of Monetary Policy on Capital Flows A Meta-Analysis," Working papers 93, Red Investigadores de Economía.
    8. Hong, Zhiwu & Wang, Zhenhan & Li, Xinda, 2024. "Foreign trade and China’s yield curve during the COVID-19 pandemic: An analysis based on an extended arbitrage-free Nelson–Siegel model," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PB).
    9. Agur, Itai & Chan, Melissa & Goswami, Mangal & Sharma, Sunil, 2019. "On international integration of emerging sovereign bond markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 347-363.
    10. Ho, Edmund Ho Cheung, 2022. "Foreign participation in local currency government bond markets in emerging Asia: Benefits and pitfalls to market stability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    11. Inaba, Kei-Ichiro, 2021. "An empirical illustration of the integration of sovereign bond markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    12. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Fischer, Eric & Shultz, Patrick J., 2021. "Bond flows and liquidity: Do foreigners matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    13. Hideaki Matsuoka, 2022. "Debt Intolerance: Threshold Level and Composition," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(4), pages 894-932, August.
    14. Abuelfadl, Moustafa & Yamani, Ehab, 2021. "Currency news and international bond markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    15. Kim, Youngju & Lim, Hyunjoon & Sohn, Wook, 2020. "Which external shock matters in small open economies? Global risk aversion vs. US economic policy uncertainty," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    16. Miss Yinqiu Lu & Dmitry Yakovlev, 2018. "Instruments, Investor Base, and Recent Developments in the Malaysian Government Bond Market," IMF Working Papers 2018/095, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Youngju Kim & Hyunjoon Lim, 2018. "Which External Shock Matters in Small Open Economies? US Economic Policy Uncertainty vs. Global Risk Aversion," Working Papers 2018-29, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign holdings; Domestic bonds; Yields; Volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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