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How ETFs Amplify the Global Financial Cycle in Emerging Markets

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  • Eduardo Levy-Yeyati
  • Nathan Converse
  • Tomas Williams

Abstract

Since the early 2000s exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have grown to become an important in- vestment vehicle worldwide. In this paper, we study how their growth affects the sensitivity of international capital flows to the global financial cycle. We combine comprehensive fund- level data on investor flows with a novel identification strategy that controls for unobservable time-varying economic conditions at the investment destination. For dedicated emerging mar- ket funds, we find that the sensitivity of investor flows to global risk factors for equity (bond) ETFs is 1.5 (1.25) times higher than for equity (bond) mutual funds. In turn, we show that in countries where ETFs hold a larger share of financial assets, total cross-border equity flows and prices are significantly more sensitive to global risk factors. We conclude that the growing role of ETFs as a channel for international capital flows amplifies the incidence of the global financial cycle in emerging markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Nathan Converse & Tomas Williams, 2017. "How ETFs Amplify the Global Financial Cycle in Emerging Markets," School of Government Working Papers 201702, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    • Handle: RePEc:udt:wpgobi:201702
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    3. Gabor, Daniela, 2020. "The Wall Street Consensus," SocArXiv wab8m, Center for Open Science.
    4. Marszk, Adam & Lechman, Ewa, 2021. "Reshaping financial systems: The role of ICT in the diffusion of financial innovations – Recent evidence from European countries," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    5. Antonelli, Stefano & Corneli, Flavia & Ferriani, Fabrizio & Gazzani, Andrea, 2022. "Benchmark effects from the inclusion of Chinese A-shares in the MSCI EM index," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    6. Charles W. Calomiris & Mauricio Larrain & Sergio L. Schmukler & Tomas Williams, 2019. "Search for Yield in Large International Corporate Bonds: Investor Behavior and Firm Responses," NBER Working Papers 25979, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Linda S. Goldberg, 2024. "Global Liquidity: Drivers, Volatility and Toolkits," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(1), pages 1-31, March.
    8. Brandao-Marques, Luis & Gelos, Gaston & Ichiue, Hibiki & Oura, Hiroko, 2022. "Changes in the global investor base and the stability of portfolio flows to emerging markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    9. Carlos Alba & Gabriel Cuadra & Juan R. Hernandez & Raul Ibarra, 2024. "Capital flows to emerging economies and global risk aversion during the COVID‐19 pandemic," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 2804-2836, July.
    10. Ahmed, Rashad, 2023. "Flights-to-safety and macroeconomic adjustment in emerging markets: The role of U.S. monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    11. Linda S. Goldberg, 2022. "Global Liquidity: Drivers, Volatility and Toolkits," Speech 95155, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    12. John Duffy & Jean Paul Rabanal & Olga A. Rud, 2019. "The Impact of ETFs on Asset Markets: Experimental Evidence," Working Papers 154, Peruvian Economic Association.
    13. Graciela L. Kaminsky, 2019. "Boom-Bust Capital Flow Cycles," NBER Working Papers 25890, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Lastauskas, Povilas & Nguyen, Anh Dinh Minh, 2024. "Spillover effects of US monetary policy on emerging markets amidst uncertainty," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    15. Duffy, John & Rabanal, Jean Paul & Rud, Olga A., 2021. "The impact of ETFs in secondary asset markets: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 674-696.
    16. Akdi, Yilmaz & Varlik, Serdar & Berument, M. Hakan, 2020. "Duration of Global Financial Cycles," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 549(C).
    17. Choi, Sangyup & Ciminelli, Gabriele & Furceri, Davide, 2023. "Is domestic uncertainty a local pull factor driving foreign capital inflows? New cross-country evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    18. Alomari, Mohammed & Selmi, Refk & Mensi, Walid & Ko, Hee-Un & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2024. "Dynamic spillovers in higher moments and jumps across ETFs and economic and financial uncertainty factors in the context of successive shocks," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 210-228.
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    21. Bozhechkova, A.V. (Божечкова, А.В.) & Sinelnikova-Muryleva, Elena Vladimirovna (Синельникова-Мурылева, Елена Владимировна), 2016. "The Impact of Higher Interest Rates on Loans to the Economic Growth of the Russian Federation in the Current Environment [Влияние Высоких Процентных Ставок По Заимствованиям На Экономический Рост Р," Working Papers 21310, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange-traded funds; mutual funds; global financial cycle; global risk; push and pull factors; capital flows; emerging markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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