IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/12548.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Foreign Participation in Local Currency Bond Markets

Author

Listed:
  • John D. Burger
  • Francis E. Warnock

Abstract

Countries that cannot attract foreigners to invest in their local currency bonds run the risk of currency mismatches that can result in painful crises. We analyze foreign participation in the bond markets of over 40 countries. Bond markets in less developed countries have returns characterized by high variance and negative skewness, factors that we show are eschewed by U.S. investors. While results based on a three-moment CAPM indicate that it is diversifiable idiosyncratic risk that U.S. investors shun, our analysis suggests that countries can improve foreign participation by reducing macroeconomic instability.

Suggested Citation

  • John D. Burger & Francis E. Warnock, 2006. "Foreign Participation in Local Currency Bond Markets," NBER Working Papers 12548, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12548
    Note: IFM
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w12548.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Devereux, Michael B. & Lane, Philip R., 2003. "Understanding bilateral exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 109-132, May.
    2. Karen K. Lewis, 1999. "Trying to Explain Home Bias in Equities and Consumption," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(2), pages 571-608, June.
    3. Ilmanen, Antti, 1995. "Time-Varying Expected Returns in International Bond Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 481-506, June.
    4. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1998. "Exchange rate volatility and intervention: implications of the theory of optimum currency areas," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 191-209, August.
    5. Dahlquist, Magnus & Pinkowitz, Lee & Stulz, René M. & Williamson, Rohan, 2003. "Corporate Governance and the Home Bias," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(1), pages 87-110, March.
    6. La Porta, Rafael & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1997. "Legal Determinants of External Finance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 1131-1150, July.
    7. John D. Burger & Francis E. Warnock, 2006. "Local Currency Bond Markets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(si), pages 1-7.
    8. Kindleberger, Charles P., 1993. "A Financial History of Western Europe," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780195077384.
    9. Karolyi, G. Andrew & Stulz, Rene M., 2003. "Are financial assets priced locally or globally?," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 16, pages 975-1020, Elsevier.
    10. G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), 2003. "Handbook of the Economics of Finance," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1, March.
    11. Claudia M. Buch & John C. Driscoll & Charlotte Ostergaard, 2010. "Cross‐Border Diversification in Bank Asset Portfolios," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 79-108, March.
    12. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 2003. "Emerging markets finance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 3-56, February.
    13. Keim, Donald B. & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1986. "Predicting returns in the stock and bond markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 357-390, December.
    14. Peter L. Rousseau & Richard Sylla, 2003. "Financial Systems, Economic Growth, and Globalization," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization in Historical Perspective, pages 373-416, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Myers, Stewart C., 1984. "Capital structure puzzle," Working papers 1548-84., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    16. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange rates and financial fragility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 329-368.
    17. Ahearne, Alan G. & Griever, William L. & Warnock, Francis E., 2004. "Information costs and home bias: an analysis of US holdings of foreign equities," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 313-336, March.
    18. Myers, Stewart C, 1984. "The Capital Structure Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 575-592, July.
    19. Stewart C. Myers, 1984. "Capital Structure Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 1393, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Campbell Harvey & John Liechty & Merrill Liechty & Peter Muller, 2010. "Portfolio selection with higher moments," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(5), pages 469-485.
    21. Campbell R. Harvey & Akhtar Siddique, 2000. "Conditional Skewness in Asset Pricing Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1263-1295, June.
    22. Kraus, Alan & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1976. "Skewness Preference and the Valuation of Risk Assets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1085-1100, September.
    23. G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), 2003. "Handbook of the Economics of Finance," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 2, March.
    24. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2004. "A corporate balance-sheet approach to currency crises," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 6-30, November.
    25. Edwards,Jeremy & Franks,Julian & Mayer,Colin & Schaefer,Stephen (ed.), 1986. "Recent Developments in Corporate Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521329644, January.
    26. Paul Krugman, 1999. "Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 459-472, November.
    27. Black, Fischer, 1974. "International capital market equilibrium with investment barriers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 337-352, December.
    28. Claessens,Stijn & Klingebiel,Daniela M. H. & Schmukler,Sergio L., 2003. "Government bonds in domestic and foreign currency: the role of macroeconomic and institutional factors," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2986, The World Bank.
    29. de Athayde, Gustavo M. & Flores, Renato Jr., 2004. "Finding a maximum skewness portfolio--a general solution to three-moments portfolio choice," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1335-1352, April.
    30. Morris Goldstein & Philip Turner, 2004. "Controlling Currency Mismatches in Emerging Markets," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 373, April.
    31. Impavido, Gregorio & Musalem, Alberto R. & Tressel, Thierry, 2003. "The impact of contractual savings institutions on securities markets," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2948, The World Bank.
    32. Chen, Nai-Fu, 1991. "Financial Investment Opportunities and the Macroeconomy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 529-554, June.
    33. Cass, David & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1970. "The structure of investor preferences and asset returns, and separability in portfolio allocation: A contribution to the pure theory of mutual funds," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 122-160, June.
    34. Stulz, Rene M, 1981. "On the Effects of Barriers to International Investment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(4), pages 923-934, September.
    35. William L. Griever & Gary A. Lee & Francis E. Warnock, 2001. "The U.S. system for measuring cross-border investment in securities: a primer with a discussion of recent developments," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), vol. 87(Oct), pages 634-650, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. John D. Burger & Francis E. Warnock, 2003. "Diversification, original sin, and international bond portfolios," International Finance Discussion Papers 755, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Anil Mishra, 2011. "Australia’s equity home bias and real exchange rate volatility," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 223-244, August.
    3. Christian Leuz & Karl V. Lins & Francis E. Warnock, 2010. "Do Foreigners Invest Less in Poorly Governed Firms?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(3), pages 3245-3285, March.
    4. Udichibarna Bose & Ronald MacDonald & Serafeim Tsoukas, 2014. "The role of education in equity portfolios during the recent financial crisis," Working Papers 2014_17, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    5. John D. Burger & Francis E. Warnock, 2006. "Local Currency Bond Markets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(si), pages 1-7.
    6. Ahearne, Alan G. & Griever, William L. & Warnock, Francis E., 2004. "Information costs and home bias: an analysis of US holdings of foreign equities," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 313-336, March.
    7. Bong‐Chan Kho & René M. Stulz & Francis E. Warnock, 2009. "Financial Globalization, Governance, and the Evolution of the Home Bias," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(2), pages 597-635, May.
    8. Burger, John D. & Warnock, Francis E. & Warnock, Veronica Cacdac, 2018. "Currency matters: Analyzing international bond portfolios," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 376-388.
    9. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Hélène Rey, 2013. "Home Bias in Open Economy Financial Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(1), pages 63-115, March.
    10. Mishra, Anil V., 2015. "Measures of equity home bias puzzle," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 293-312.
    11. Fang Cai & Francis E. Warnock, 2004. "International diversification at home and abroad," International Finance Discussion Papers 793, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Bose, Udichibarna & MacDonald, Ronald & Tsoukas, Serafeim, 2015. "Education and the local equity bias around the world," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-76, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    13. Baltzer, Markus & Stolper, Oscar & Walter, Andreas, 2013. "Is local bias a cross-border phenomenon? Evidence from individual investors’ international asset allocation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2823-2835.
    14. Bose, Udichibarna & MacDonald, Ronald & Tsoukas, Serafeim, 2015. "Education and the local equity bias around the world," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 65-88.
    15. Berkel Barbara, 2007. "Institutional Determinants of International Equity Portfolios - A Country-Level Analysis," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-33, October.
    16. Giofré, Maela, 2013. "International diversification: Households versus institutional investors," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 145-176.
    17. Sorensen, Bent E. & Wu, Yi-Tsung & Yosha, Oved & Zhu, Yu, 2007. "Home bias and international risk sharing: Twin puzzles separated at birth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 587-605, June.
    18. Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Guibaud, Stéphane, 2011. "International portfolio diversification is better than you think," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 289-308, March.
    19. Charles P. Thomas & Francis E. Warnock & Jon Wongswan, 2004. "The Performance of International Equity Portfolios," International Finance Discussion Papers 817, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    20. Bose, Udichibarna & MacDonald, Ronald & Tsoukas, Serafeim, 2014. "The role of education in equity portfolios during the recent financial crisis," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-26, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12548. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.