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Teaching scenario planning: Lessons from practice in academe and business

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  • Wright, George
  • Cairns, George
  • Goodwin, Paul

Abstract

In this paper, we engage with O'Brien's [O'Brien, F.A., 2004. Scenario planning - lessons for practice from teaching and learning. European Journal of Operational Research 152, 709-722] identification of both pitfalls in teaching scenario planning and proposed remedies for these. We consider these remedies in relation to our own experience - based on our practice in both the academic and business arenas - and we highlight further pitfalls and proposed remedies. Finally, we propose the use of "hard" multi-attribute decision analysis as a complement to "soft" scenario planning, in order to allow a more formal method of strategy evaluation against a range of constructed scenarios, This approach is intended to remedy biases that are associated with holistic evaluations - such as lexicographic ranking - where undue attention is paid to particular strategic objectives at the expense of others. From this discussion, we seek to contribute to cumulative refinement of the scenario process.

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  • Wright, George & Cairns, George & Goodwin, Paul, 2009. "Teaching scenario planning: Lessons from practice in academe and business," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 194(1), pages 323-335, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:194:y:2009:i:1:p:323-335
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    Cited by:

    1. Leitner, Johannes & Leopold-Wildburger, Ulrike, 2011. "Experiments on forecasting behavior with several sources of information - A review of the literature," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 213(3), pages 459-469, September.
    2. Wright, George & Goodwin, Paul, 2009. "Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability: Enhancing the scenario method," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 813-825, October.
    3. Derbyshire, James & Wright, George, 2017. "Augmenting the intuitive logics scenario planning method for a more comprehensive analysis of causation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 254-266.
    4. Crawford, Megan M., 2019. "A comprehensive scenario intervention typology," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    5. Kunc, Martin & O'Brien, Frances A., 2017. "Exploring the development of a methodology for scenario use: Combining scenario and resource mapping approaches," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 150-159.
    6. Al-Mutairi, Ayedh & AlKheder, Sharaf & Alzwayid, Shaikhah & Talib, Dalal & Heji, Mariam Bn & Lambert, James H., 2022. "Scenario-based preferences modeling to investigate port initiatives resilience," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    7. de Bruin, Jilske Olda & Kok, Kasper & Hoogstra-Klein, Marjanke Alberttine, 2017. "Exploring the potential of combining participative backcasting and exploratory scenarios for robust strategies: Insights from the Dutch forest sector," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(P2), pages 269-282.
    8. Frith, David & Tapinos, Efstathios, 2020. "Opening the ‘black box’ of scenario planning through realist synthesis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    9. Kabak, Özgür & Ülengin, Füsun & Önsel Ekici, Şule, 2018. "Connecting logistics performance to export: A scenario-based approach," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 69-82.
    10. James Derbyshire, 2019. "Use of scenario planning as a theory‐driven evaluation tool," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(1), March.
    11. Duckett, Dominic George & McKee, Annie J. & Sutherland, Lee-Ann & Kyle, Carol & Boden, Lisa A. & Auty, Harriet & Bessell, Paul R. & McKendrick, Iain J., 2017. "Scenario planning as communicative action: Lessons from participatory exercises conducted for the Scottish livestock industry," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 138-151.
    12. Förster, Bernadette & von der Gracht, Heiko, 2014. "Assessing Delphi panel composition for strategic foresight — A comparison of panels based on company-internal and external participants," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 215-229.
    13. Martin Kunc, 2024. "Integrating system dynamics and scenarios: A framework based on personal experience," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(1), March.
    14. Megan M. Crawford & Eoin Plant‐O'Toole, 2023. "A review of strategic planning for dynamic supply chains: Preparing for uncertainty using scenarios," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(3-4), September.

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