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The Role of Scenario Planning in Exploring the Environment in View of the Limitations of PEST and Its Derivatives

Author

Listed:
  • George Burt
  • George Wright
  • Ron Bradfield
  • George Cairns
  • Kees van der Heijden

Abstract

Adapting to change in the contextual environment is one of the key challenges for managers as they try to ensure the survival and longevity of their organization. Yet, both the literature and the textbooks on the subject area of the contextual environment lack unequivocal conceptual and practical guidance for managers interested in this area of management practice. In this paper, we evaluate the seminal studies on understanding the environment, as well as the leading North American and European strategy textbooks, to determine the contemporary appropriateness of the approaches advocated for analyzing the contextual environment and the implications these have for the managers of an organization. We discuss the limitations of these approaches and posit an alternative framework—scenario planning—to help improve the process of analyzing and understanding the environment and to help in adapting to change in the environment. We illustrate the advantages of scenario planning over other approaches using a case example.

Suggested Citation

  • George Burt & George Wright & Ron Bradfield & George Cairns & Kees van der Heijden, 2006. "The Role of Scenario Planning in Exploring the Environment in View of the Limitations of PEST and Its Derivatives," International Studies of Management & Organization, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(3), pages 50-76, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:mimoxx:v:36:y:2006:i:3:p:50-76
    DOI: 10.2753/IMO0020-8825360303
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Wright, George & Cairns, George & Goodwin, Paul, 2009. "Teaching scenario planning: Lessons from practice in academe and business," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 194(1), pages 323-335, April.
    2. Derbyshire, James & Wright, George, 2017. "Augmenting the intuitive logics scenario planning method for a more comprehensive analysis of causation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 254-266.
    3. Winkler, Jens & Kuklinski, Christian Paul Jian-Wei & Moser, Roger, 2015. "Decision making in emerging markets: The Delphi approach's contribution to coping with uncertainty and equivocality," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(5), pages 1118-1126.
    4. Charis Vlados & Dimos Chatzinikolaou, 2020. "Methodological Redirections for an Evolutionary Approach of the External Business Environment," Journal of Management and Sustainability, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(2), pages 1-25, March.
    5. Andreani, Stefano & Kalchschmidt, Matteo & Pinto, Roberto & Sayegh, Allen, 2019. "Reframing technologically enhanced urban scenarios: A design research model towards human centered smart cities," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 15-25.
    6. Hussain, M. & Tapinos, E. & Knight, L., 2017. "Scenario-driven roadmapping for technology foresight," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 160-177.
    7. Wright, George & Goodwin, Paul, 2009. "Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability: Enhancing the scenario method," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 813-825, October.
    8. Cairns, George & Wright, George & Fairbrother, Peter, 2016. "Promoting articulated action from diverse stakeholders in response to public policy scenarios: A case analysis of the use of ‘scenario improvisation’ method," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 97-108.
    9. Bennett, Simon J, 2012. "Using past transitions to inform scenarios for the future of renewable raw materials in the UK," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 95-108.
    10. Nazari, Bijan & Liaghat, Abdolmajid & Akbari, Mohammad Reza & Keshavarz, Marzieh, 2018. "Irrigation water management in Iran: Implications for water use efficiency improvement," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 7-18.

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