IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/chsofr/v136y2020ics0960077920302836.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Optimal policies for control of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak

Author

Listed:
  • Yousefpour, Amin
  • Jahanshahi, Hadi
  • Bekiros, Stelios

Abstract

Understanding the early transmission dynamics of diseases and estimating the effectiveness of control policies play inevitable roles in the prevention of epidemic diseases. To this end, this paper is concerned with the design of optimal control strategies for the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). A mathematical model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission based on Wuhan's data is considered. To solve the problem effectively and efficiently, a multi-objective genetic algorithm is proposed to achieve high-quality schedules for various factors including contact rate and transition rate of symptomatic infected individuals to the quarantined infected class. By changing these factors, two optimal policies are successfully designed. This study has two main scientific contributions that are: (1) This is pioneer research that proposes policies regarding COVID-19, (2) This is also the first research that addresses COVID-19 and considers its economic consequences through a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm. Numerical simulations conspicuously demonstrate that by applying the proposed optimal policies, governments could find useful and practical ways for control of the disease.

Suggested Citation

  • Yousefpour, Amin & Jahanshahi, Hadi & Bekiros, Stelios, 2020. "Optimal policies for control of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:136:y:2020:i:c:s0960077920302836
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109883
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077920302836
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109883?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Khajanchi, Subhas & Nieto, Juan J., 2019. "Mathematical modeling of tumor-immune competitive system, considering the role of time delay," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 340(C), pages 180-205.
    2. Owolabi, Kolade M. & Atangana, Abdon, 2019. "Mathematical analysis and computational experiments for an epidemic system with nonlocal and nonsingular derivative," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 41-49.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xin Jing & Jin Seo Cho, 2023. "Forecasting the Confirmed COVID-19 Cases Using Modal Regression," Working papers 2023rwp-217, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    2. Arielle Kaim & Tuvia Gering & Amiram Moshaiov & Bruria Adini, 2021. "Deciphering the COVID-19 Health Economic Dilemma (HED): A Scoping Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(18), pages 1-13, September.
    3. Charu Arora & Poras Khetarpal & Saket Gupta & Nuzhat Fatema & Hasmat Malik & Asyraf Afthanorhan, 2023. "Mathematical Modelling to Predict the Effect of Vaccination on Delay and Rise of COVID-19 Cases Management," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-15, February.
    4. Tu, Yunbo & Meng, Xinzhu & Alzahrani, Abdullah Khames & Zhang, Tonghua, 2023. "Multi-objective optimization and nonlinear dynamics for sub-healthy COVID-19 epidemic model subject to self-diffusion and cross-diffusion," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 175(P1).
    5. Okuonghae, D. & Omame, A., 2020. "Analysis of a mathematical model for COVID-19 population dynamics in Lagos, Nigeria," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    6. Tayarani N., Mohammad-H., 2021. "Applications of artificial intelligence in battling against covid-19: A literature review," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    7. Arshad, Sadia & Siddique, Imran & Nawaz, Fariha & Shaheen, Aqila & Khurshid, Hina, 2023. "Dynamics of a fractional order mathematical model for COVID-19 epidemic transmission," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 609(C).
    8. Chu, Yu-Ming & Bekiros, Stelios & Zambrano-Serrano, Ernesto & Orozco-López, Onofre & Lahmiri, Salim & Jahanshahi, Hadi & Aly, Ayman A., 2021. "Artificial macro-economics: A chaotic discrete-time fractional-order laboratory model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    9. Memon, Zaibunnisa & Qureshi, Sania & Memon, Bisharat Rasool, 2021. "Assessing the role of quarantine and isolation as control strategies for COVID-19 outbreak: A case study," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    10. Jahanshahi, Hadi & Munoz-Pacheco, Jesus M. & Bekiros, Stelios & Alotaibi, Naif D., 2021. "A fractional-order SIRD model with time-dependent memory indexes for encompassing the multi-fractional characteristics of the COVID-19," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    11. Njud S. Alharbi & Hadi Jahanshahi & Qijia Yao & Stelios Bekiros & Irene Moroz, 2023. "Enhanced Classification of Heartbeat Electrocardiogram Signals Using a Long Short-Term Memory–Convolutional Neural Network Ensemble: Paving the Way for Preventive Healthcare," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-17, September.
    12. de Souza, Silvio L.T. & Batista, Antonio M. & Caldas, Iberê L. & Iarosz, Kelly C. & Szezech Jr, José D., 2021. "Dynamics of epidemics: Impact of easing restrictions and control of infection spread," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    13. Jelena Musulin & Sandi Baressi Šegota & Daniel Štifanić & Ivan Lorencin & Nikola Anđelić & Tijana Šušteršič & Anđela Blagojević & Nenad Filipović & Tomislav Ćabov & Elitza Markova-Car, 2021. "Application of Artificial Intelligence-Based Regression Methods in the Problem of COVID-19 Spread Prediction: A Systematic Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(8), pages 1-39, April.
    14. Yuan, Yiran & Li, Ning, 2022. "Optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis for a COVID-19 model with individual protection awareness," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 603(C).
    15. Nenchev, Vladislav, 2020. "Optimal quarantine control of an infectious outbreak," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    16. Çaparoğlu, Ömer Faruk & Ok, Yeşim & Tutam, Mahmut, 2021. "To restrict or not to restrict? Use of artificial neural network to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation policies: A case study of Turkey," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    17. Zhang, Jingwen & Wang, Xinwei & Rong, Lili & Pan, Qiuwei & Bao, Chunbing & Zheng, Qinyue, 2024. "Planning for the optimal vaccination sequence in the context of a population-stratified model," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    18. Asamoah, Joshua Kiddy K. & Owusu, Mark A. & Jin, Zhen & Oduro, F. T. & Abidemi, Afeez & Gyasi, Esther Opoku, 2020. "Global stability and cost-effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 considering the impact of the environment: using data from Ghana," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    19. Kumar Das, Dhiraj & Khatua, Anupam & Kar, T.K. & Jana, Soovoojeet, 2021. "The effectiveness of contact tracing in mitigating COVID-19 outbreak: A model-based analysis in the context of India," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 404(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhao, Zhong & Pang, Liuyong & Li, Qiuying, 2021. "Analysis of a hybrid impulsive tumor-immune model with immunotherapy and chemotherapy," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    2. Mishra, A.M. & Purohit, S.D. & Owolabi, K.M. & Sharma, Y.D., 2020. "A nonlinear epidemiological model considering asymptotic and quarantine classes for SARS CoV-2 virus," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    3. Ravi Kanth, A.S.V. & Devi, Sangeeta, 2021. "A practical numerical approach to solve a fractional Lotka–Volterra population model with non-singular and singular kernels," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    4. Kolebaje, Olusola & Popoola, Oyebola & Khan, Muhammad Altaf & Oyewande, Oluwole, 2020. "An epidemiological approach to insurgent population modeling with the Atangana–Baleanu fractional derivative," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    5. Maike A. F. dos Santos, 2019. "Mittag–Leffler Memory Kernel in Lévy Flights," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 7(9), pages 1-13, August.
    6. Wei, Q. & Yang, S. & Zhou, H.W. & Zhang, S.Q. & Li, X.N. & Hou, W., 2021. "Fractional diffusion models for radionuclide anomalous transport in geological repository systems," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    7. Deng, Shuning & Ji, Jinchen & Wen, Guilin & Xu, Huidong, 2021. "A comparative study of the dynamics of a three-disk dynamo system with and without time delay," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 399(C).
    8. Yadav, Ram Prasad & Renu Verma,, 2020. "A numerical simulation of fractional order mathematical modeling of COVID-19 disease in case of Wuhan China," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    9. Ebraheem Alzahrani & M. M. El-Dessoky & Muhammad Altaf Khan, 2023. "Mathematical Model to Understand the Dynamics of Cancer, Prevention Diagnosis and Therapy," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-17, April.
    10. Dalal Yahya Alzahrani & Fuaada Mohd Siam & Farah A. Abdullah, 2023. "Elucidating the Effects of Ionizing Radiation on Immune Cell Populations: A Mathematical Modeling Approach with Special Emphasis on Fractional Derivatives," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-21, April.
    11. Al-khedhairi, A. & Elsadany, A.A. & Elsonbaty, A., 2019. "Modelling immune systems based on Atangana–Baleanu fractional derivative," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 25-39.
    12. Sardar, Mrinmoy & Khajanchi, Subhas & Biswas, Santosh & Ghosh, Sumana, 2024. "A mathematical model for tumor-immune competitive system with multiple time delays," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    13. Taneco-Hernández, Marco Antonio & Vargas-De-León, Cruz, 2020. "Stability and Lyapunov functions for systems with Atangana–Baleanu Caputo derivative: An HIV/AIDS epidemic model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    14. Bukhari, Ayaz Hussain & Raja, Muhammad Asif Zahoor & Shoaib, Muhammad & Kiani, Adiqa Kausar, 2022. "Fractional order Lorenz based physics informed SARFIMA-NARX model to monitor and mitigate megacities air pollution," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    15. Wang, Wanting & Khan, Muhammad Altaf & Fatmawati, & Kumam, P. & Thounthong, P., 2019. "A comparison study of bank data in fractional calculus," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 369-384.
    16. Rihan, F.A. & Rajivganthi, C, 2020. "Dynamics of fractional-order delay differential model of prey-predator system with Holling-type III and infection among predators," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    17. Ishtiaq Ali & Sami Ullah Khan, 2023. "A Dynamic Competition Analysis of Stochastic Fractional Differential Equation Arising in Finance via Pseudospectral Method," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-16, March.
    18. Goyal, Manish & Baskonus, Haci Mehmet & Prakash, Amit, 2020. "Regarding new positive, bounded and convergent numerical solution of nonlinear time fractional HIV/AIDS transmission model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    19. Naik, Parvaiz Ahmad & Zu, Jian & Owolabi, Kolade M., 2020. "Global dynamics of a fractional order model for the transmission of HIV epidemic with optimal control," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    20. Okposo, Newton I. & Adewole, Matthew O. & Okposo, Emamuzo N. & Ojarikre, Herietta I. & Abdullah, Farah A., 2021. "A mathematical study on a fractional COVID-19 transmission model within the framework of nonsingular and nonlocal kernel," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:136:y:2020:i:c:s0960077920302836. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Thayer, Thomas R. (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/chaos-solitons-and-fractals .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.