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Dynamics of epidemics: Impact of easing restrictions and control of infection spread

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  • de Souza, Silvio L.T.
  • Batista, Antonio M.
  • Caldas, Iberê L.
  • Iarosz, Kelly C.
  • Szezech Jr, José D.

Abstract

During an infectious disease outbreak, mathematical models and computational simulations are essential tools to characterize the epidemic dynamics and aid in design public health policies. Using these tools, we provide an overview of the possible scenarios for the COVID-19 pandemic in the phase of easing restrictions used to reopen the economy and society. To investigate the dynamics of this outbreak, we consider a deterministic compartmental model (SEIR model) with an additional parameter to simulate the restrictions. In general, as a consequence of easing restrictions, we obtain scenarios characterized by high spikes of infections indicating significant acceleration of the spreading disease. Finally, we show how such undesirable scenarios could be avoided by a control strategy of successive partial easing restrictions, namely, we tailor a successive sequence of the additional parameter to prevent spikes in phases of low rate of transmissibility.

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  • de Souza, Silvio L.T. & Batista, Antonio M. & Caldas, Iberê L. & Iarosz, Kelly C. & Szezech Jr, José D., 2021. "Dynamics of epidemics: Impact of easing restrictions and control of infection spread," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:142:y:2021:i:c:s0960077920308249
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110431
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    Cited by:

    1. Gabrick, Enrique C. & Sayari, Elaheh & Protachevicz, Paulo R. & Szezech, José D. & Iarosz, Kelly C. & de Souza, Silvio L.T. & Almeida, Alexandre C.L. & Viana, Ricardo L. & Caldas, Iberê L. & Batista, , 2023. "Unpredictability in seasonal infectious diseases spread," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    2. Gabrick, Enrique C. & Protachevicz, Paulo R. & Batista, Antonio M. & Iarosz, Kelly C. & de Souza, Silvio L.T. & Almeida, Alexandre C.L. & Szezech, José D. & Mugnaine, Michele & Caldas, Iberê L., 2022. "Effect of two vaccine doses in the SEIR epidemic model using a stochastic cellular automaton," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 597(C).
    3. Mugnaine, Michele & Gabrick, Enrique C. & Protachevicz, Paulo R. & Iarosz, Kelly C. & de Souza, Silvio L.T. & Almeida, Alexandre C.L. & Batista, Antonio M. & Caldas, Iberê L. & Szezech Jr, José D. & V, 2022. "Control attenuation and temporary immunity in a cellular automata SEIR epidemic model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).

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