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Optimal quarantine control of an infectious outbreak

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  • Nenchev, Vladislav

Abstract

This paper studies the optimal control of an infectious spread based on common epidemic models with permanent immunity and no vaccine availability. Assuming limited isolation control and capacity constraints on the number of infections, an optimal quarantine control strategy that balances between the total number of infections and the overall isolation effort is derived from necessary optimality conditions. The specific optimal policy is then obtained by optimizing the switching times of this generalized strategy. In the case of a newly emerged disease, these results can be used in a data-driven receding horizon manner to improve actions as more data becomes available.

Suggested Citation

  • Nenchev, Vladislav, 2020. "Optimal quarantine control of an infectious outbreak," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:138:y:2020:i:c:s096007792030535x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110139
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yousefpour, Amin & Jahanshahi, Hadi & Bekiros, Stelios, 2020. "Optimal policies for control of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
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    1. Khan, Md. Mamun-Ur-Rashid & Arefin, Md. Rajib & Tanimoto, Jun, 2022. "Investigating the trade-off between self-quarantine and forced quarantine provisions to control an epidemic: An evolutionary approach," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 432(C).

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