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An analysis of the investment risk related to the integration of a supercritical coal-fired combined heat and power plant with an absorption installation for CO2 separation

Author

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  • Bartela, Łukasz
  • Skorek-Osikowska, Anna
  • Kotowicz, Janusz

Abstract

For two variants of a supercritical coal-fired combined heat and power plant a thermodynamic, economic and risk analyses were carried out. The first variant consists of a unit working without realization of CO2 capture process. The second one is the unit integrated with a chemical absorption CO2 capture installation. In this variant the heat required for the desorption process is supplied with steam extracted from the steam turbine. The developed model of the CHP plant allowed to obtain main operation characteristics for annual change of load. For the two analyzed variants the characteristics of the amount of produced electricity (gross and net), generated heat and consumed chemical energy of fuel, as a function of the cogeneration unit operation time per year, were determined. In the next stage of calculations these characteristics were required to carry out the economic and risk analysis. Economic performances were evaluated in terms of the break-even price of electricity. The performed analysis proves that both investment projects will achieve the same economic effect, i.e. 85.26€/MWh, if the price of emissions allowances reaches the value of 47.88€/MgCO2. In this case, the potentially better variant of the system may be indicated based on the result of the risk analysis. In order to perform the risk analysis the main technical and economic risk factors concerning implementation of this technology were identified. The risk analysis was conducted with the use of Monte Carlo method. Based on the determined cumulative probability curves of obtaining specified values of the break-even price of electricity, it was possible to obtain values for defined in the paper indices of the investment risk assessment. The results of risk analysis are presented and discussed in the paper.

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  • Bartela, Łukasz & Skorek-Osikowska, Anna & Kotowicz, Janusz, 2015. "An analysis of the investment risk related to the integration of a supercritical coal-fired combined heat and power plant with an absorption installation for CO2 separation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 423-435.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:156:y:2015:i:c:p:423-435
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.07.045
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Hughes, Larry & de Jong, Moniek & Wang, Xiao Qin, 2016. "A generic method for analyzing the risks to energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 895-908.
    3. Abdul Manaf, Norhuda & Qadir, Abdul & Abbas, Ali, 2016. "Temporal multiscalar decision support framework for flexible operation of carbon capture plants targeting low-carbon management of power plant emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 912-926.
    4. Yuan, Jiahai & Li, Xinying & Xu, Chuanbo & Zhao, Changhong & Liu, Yuanxin, 2019. "Investment risk assessment of coal-fired power plants in countries along the Belt and Road initiative based on ANP-Entropy-TODIM method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 623-640.
    5. Staffan Qvist & Paweł Gładysz & Łukasz Bartela & Anna Sowiżdżał, 2020. "Retrofit Decarbonization of Coal Power Plants—A Case Study for Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-37, December.
    6. Wang, Yuelan & Ma, Zengyi & Shen, Yueliang & Tang, Yijun & Ni, Mingjiang & Chi, Yong & Yan, Jianhua & Cen, Kefa, 2016. "A power-saving control strategy for reducing the total pressure applied by the primary air fan of a coal-fired power plant," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 380-388.
    7. Kai Zhang & Xiangxiang Dong & Chaofeng Li & Yanling Zhao & Kun Liu, 2024. "Capacity Expansion Planning of Hydrogen-Enabled Industrial Energy Systems for Carbon Dioxide Peaking," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(14), pages 1-10, July.

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