IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v176y2019icp623-640.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Investment risk assessment of coal-fired power plants in countries along the Belt and Road initiative based on ANP-Entropy-TODIM method

Author

Listed:
  • Yuan, Jiahai
  • Li, Xinying
  • Xu, Chuanbo
  • Zhao, Changhong
  • Liu, Yuanxin

Abstract

Coal is an irreplaceable part of the world energy structure and the condition will not be changed in the near future. Under the Belt and Road initiative, more and more Chinese energy enterprises are planning to invest in coal-fired power plant (CFPP) abroad. However, there are multiple potential risks in investing in CFPP overseas. So, assessing the risk level can help the investors avoid too risky countries and at the same time facilitate the government to take measures to reduce the potential risks to attract more investors. To reasonably assess overseas investment risk of CFPP in countries along the Belt and Road initiative, this paper establishes an evaluation criteria system from eight dimensions which consists of a total of 39 criteria. Then, these criteria weights are determined through a combined analytic network process-Entropy method. Furthermore, considering the psychological characteristics of decision-makers, a TODIM (an acronym in Portuguese for Interactive Multi-criteria Decision Making) approach is used to rank the overall risk level of CFPP investment for 23 nations. The findings indicate that the criterion of economic foundation owns the largest weight. Moreover, among these evaluated nations, Singapore have the lowest risk for China’s CFPP investment, followed by New Zealand and Thailand.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuan, Jiahai & Li, Xinying & Xu, Chuanbo & Zhao, Changhong & Liu, Yuanxin, 2019. "Investment risk assessment of coal-fired power plants in countries along the Belt and Road initiative based on ANP-Entropy-TODIM method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 623-640.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:176:y:2019:i:c:p:623-640
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2019.04.038
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544219306620
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2019.04.038?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bartela, Łukasz & Skorek-Osikowska, Anna & Kotowicz, Janusz, 2015. "An analysis of the investment risk related to the integration of a supercritical coal-fired combined heat and power plant with an absorption installation for CO2 separation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 423-435.
    2. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. "Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
    3. Xiuzhi Sang & Xinwang Liu, 2016. "An interval type-2 fuzzy sets-based TODIM method and its application to green supplier selection," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 67(5), pages 722-734, May.
    4. Abadie, Luis M. & Chamorro, José M., 2009. "Income risk of EU coal-fired power plants after Kyoto," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5304-5316, December.
    5. Tietjen, Oliver & Pahle, Michael & Fuss, Sabine, 2016. "Investment risks in power generation: A comparison of fossil fuel and renewable energy dominated markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 174-185.
    6. Wang, Jiansheng & Diao, Mengzhen & Yue, Kaihong, 2017. "Optimization on pinch point temperature difference of ORC system based on AHP-Entropy method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 97-107.
    7. Shi, Kaifang & Yu, Bailang & Huang, Chang & Wu, Jianping & Sun, Xiufeng, 2018. "Exploring spatiotemporal patterns of electric power consumption in countries along the Belt and Road," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 847-859.
    8. Çelikbilek, Yakup & Tüysüz, Fatih, 2016. "An integrated grey based multi-criteria decision making approach for the evaluation of renewable energy sources," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P1), pages 1246-1258.
    9. Yuan, Jiahai & Lei, Qi & Xiong, Minpeng & Guo, Jingsheng & Hu, Zheng, 2016. "The prospective of coal power in China: Will it reach a plateau in the coming decade?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 495-504.
    10. Wu, Yunna & Xu, Chuanbo & Zhang, Ting, 2018. "Evaluation of renewable power sources using a fuzzy MCDM based on cumulative prospect theory: A case in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 1227-1239.
    11. Liu, Ximei & Zeng, Ming, 2017. "Renewable energy investment risk evaluation model based on system dynamics," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 782-788.
    12. Wu, Yunna & Wang, Jing & Hu, Yong & Ke, Yiming & Li, Lingwenying, 2018. "An extended TODIM-PROMETHEE method for waste-to-energy plant site selection based on sustainability perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 1-16.
    13. Fan, Ying & Zhu, Lei, 2010. "A real options based model and its application to China's overseas oil investment decisions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 627-637, May.
    14. Wu, Yunna & Song, Zixin & Li, Lingwenying & Xu, Ruhang, 2018. "Risk management of public-private partnership charging infrastructure projects in China based on a three-dimension framework," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PA), pages 1089-1101.
    15. Jasiński, Dominik & Cinelli, Marco & Dias, Luis C. & Meredith, James & Kirwan, Kerry, 2018. "Assessing supply risks for non-fossil mineral resources via multi-criteria decision analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 150-158.
    16. Jiahai Yuan & Yurong Zeng & Xiaoxuan Guo & Yu Ai & Minpeng Xiong, 2018. "Electric Power Investment Risk Assessment for Belt and Road Initiative Nations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-21, August.
    17. Atmaca, Ediz & Basar, Hasan Burak, 2012. "Evaluation of power plants in Turkey using Analytic Network Process (ANP)," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 555-563.
    18. Yuan, Jiahai & Zhao, Changhong & Yu, Shunkun & Hu, Zhaoguang, 2007. "Electricity consumption and economic growth in China: Cointegration and co-feature analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1179-1191, November.
    19. Shuai, Jing & Chen, Chien-fei & Cheng, Jinhua & Leng, Zhihui & Wang, Zihan, 2018. "Are China's solar PV products competitive in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 559-568.
    20. Erol, İsmail & Sencer, Safiye & Özmen, Aslı & Searcy, Cory, 2014. "Fuzzy MCDM framework for locating a nuclear power plant in Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 186-197.
    21. Xu, Li-jun & Fan, Xiao-chao & Wang, Wei-qing & Xu, Lei & Duan, You-lian & Shi, Rui-jing, 2017. "Renewable and sustainable energy of Xinjiang and development strategy of node areas in the “Silk Road Economic Belt”," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 274-285.
    22. Hossein Safari & Zahra Faraji & Setareh Majidian, 2016. "Identifying and evaluating enterprise architecture risks using FMEA and fuzzy VIKOR," Journal of Intelligent Manufacturing, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 475-486, April.
    23. Huang, Yiping, 2016. "Understanding China's Belt & Road Initiative: Motivation, framework and assessment," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 314-321.
    24. Gorbacheva, Natalya V. & Sovacool, Benjamin K., 2015. "Pain without gain? Reviewing the risks and rewards of investing in Russian coal-fired electricity," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 970-986.
    25. Qin, Quande & Liang, Fuqi & Li, Li & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2017. "Selection of energy performance contracting business models: A behavioral decision-making approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 422-433.
    26. Locatelli, Giorgio & Invernizzi, Diletta Colette & Mancini, Mauro, 2016. "Investment and risk appraisal in energy storage systems: A real options approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 114-131.
    27. Gatzert, Nadine & Vogl, Nikolai, 2016. "Evaluating investments in renewable energy under policy risks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 238-252.
    28. Qinhua Xu & William Chung, 2018. "Risk assessment of China’s Belt and Road Initiative’s sustainable investing: a data envelopment analysis approach," Economic and Political Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 319-337, July.
    29. Lee, Hsing-Chen & Chang, Ching-Ter, 2018. "Comparative analysis of MCDM methods for ranking renewable energy sources in Taiwan," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 883-896.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhang, Mingming & Pang, Zhichao & Liu, Liyun & Yang, Zikun & Zhou, Dequn, 2024. "Risk assessment of China's overseas energy investments considering the response ability to major risk events: A case study of COVID-19," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    2. Ilbahar, Esra & Kahraman, Cengiz & Cebi, Selcuk, 2022. "Risk assessment of renewable energy investments: A modified failure mode and effect analysis based on prospect theory and intuitionistic fuzzy AHP," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PA).
    3. Wu, Yunna & Wang, Jing & Ji, Shaoyu & Song, Zixin, 2020. "Renewable energy investment risk assessment for nations along China’s Belt & Road Initiative: An ANP-cloud model method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    4. Hashemizadeh, Ali & Ju, Yanbing & Bamakan, Seyed Mojtaba Hosseini & Le, Hoang Phong, 2021. "Renewable energy investment risk assessment in belt and road initiative countries under uncertainty conditions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    5. Yu, Donghui & Gu, Baihe & Zhu, Kaiwei & Yang, Jiawen & Sheng, Yuhui, 2024. "Risk analysis of China's renewable energy cooperation with belt and road economies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    6. Alkan, Ömer & Albayrak, Özlem Karadağ, 2020. "Ranking of renewable energy sources for regions in Turkey by fuzzy entropy based fuzzy COPRAS and fuzzy MULTIMOORA," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 712-726.
    7. Abba, Z.Y.I. & Balta-Ozkan, N. & Hart, P., 2022. "A holistic risk management framework for renewable energy investments," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    8. Chang, Kai & Zeng, Yonghong & Wang, Weihong & Wu, Xin, 2019. "The effects of credit policy and financial constraints on tangible and research & development investment: Firm-level evidence from China's renewable energy industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 438-447.
    9. Songrui Li & Yitang Hu, 2022. "A Multi-Criteria Framework to Evaluate the Sustainability of Renewable Energy: A 2-Tuple Linguistic Grey Relation Model from the Perspective of the Prospect Theory," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-24, April.
    10. Zhao, Chengwei & Xu, Xuanhua & Liu, Ruihuan & He, Jishan, 2021. "A multi-aspect coordination HDRED site selection framework under multi-type heterogeneous environments," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 833-848.
    11. Huang, Jianbai & Liu, Jia & Zhang, Hongwei & Guo, Yaoqi, 2020. "Sustainable risk analysis of China's overseas investment in iron ore," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    12. Qian, Xiaohu & Fang, Shu-Cherng & Huang, Min & Wang, Xingwei, 2019. "Winner determination of loss-averse buyers with incomplete information in multiattribute reverse auctions for clean energy device procurement," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 276-292.
    13. Jiahai Yuan & Yurong Zeng & Xiaoxuan Guo & Yu Ai & Minpeng Xiong, 2018. "Electric Power Investment Risk Assessment for Belt and Road Initiative Nations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-21, August.
    14. Paula Donaduzzi Rigo & Graciele Rediske & Carmen Brum Rosa & Natália Gava Gastaldo & Leandro Michels & Alvaro Luiz Neuenfeldt Júnior & Julio Cezar Mairesse Siluk, 2020. "Renewable Energy Problems: Exploring the Methods to Support the Decision-Making Process," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-27, December.
    15. Zhiheng Wu & Guisheng Hou & Baogui Xin, 2020. "Has the Belt and Road Initiative Brought New Opportunities to Countries Along the Routes to Participate in Global Value Chains?," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(1), pages 21582440209, January.
    16. Wu, Yunna & Ke, Yiming & Xu, Chuanbo & Li, Lingwenying, 2019. "An integrated decision-making model for sustainable photovoltaic module supplier selection based on combined weight and cumulative prospect theory," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 1235-1251.
    17. Abdul, Daud & Wenqi, Jiang & Tanveer, Arsalan, 2022. "Prioritization of renewable energy source for electricity generation through AHP-VIKOR integrated methodology," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 1018-1032.
    18. Ezbakhe, Fatine & Pérez-Foguet, Agustí, 2021. "Decision analysis for sustainable development: The case of renewable energy planning under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 291(2), pages 601-613.
    19. Lu, Zhiming & Gao, Yan & Xu, Chuanbo, 2021. "Evaluation of energy management system for regional integrated energy system under interval type-2 hesitant fuzzy environment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    20. Kodad Rajaa & Jingfeng Yuan & Lei Zhang & Junwei Ma & Lei Zhang, 2021. "External Factors Affecting Investment in Overseas Electric Power Projects," Springer Books, in: Gui Ye & Hongping Yuan & Jian Zuo (ed.), Proceedings of the 24th International Symposium on Advancement of Construction Management and Real Estate, pages 1455-1472, Springer.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:176:y:2019:i:c:p:623-640. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.