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Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2004: Prognose und Wirklichkeit

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  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

Abstract

Das ifo Institut beleuchtet seit Jahren kritisch die Güte der eigenen Konjunkturprognosen und diskutiert die Gründe für aufgetretene Differenzen zwischen Prognose und Wirklichkeit. Im Jahr 2004 ist die Wirtschaftsentwicklung in Deutschland vom ifo Institut von der Grundtendenz her zutreffend prognostiziert worden. Wie erwartet ist es zu einem leichten Aufschwung gekommen, der allerdings nicht stark genug war, die Lage auf dem Arbeitsmarkt auch nur ansatzweise zu verbessern.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2005. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2004: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 58(03), pages 26-30, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:58:y:2005:i:03:p:26-30
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 1999. "Aus dem Instrumentenkasten der Konjunkturanalyse : Veränderungen im Vergleich," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 52(27), pages 11-19, October.
    2. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2001. "Konjunkturprognosen und Prognoserisiko," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(16), pages 17-21, October.
    3. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Methoden der Konjunkturprognose," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(04), pages 7-23, February.
    4. Gebhard Flaig & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Oscar-Erich Kuntze & Andrea Gebauer & Steffen Henzel & Oliver Hülsewig & Anita Dehne & Erich Langmantel & Monika Ruschinski & Hans-Werner Sinn & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2004. "ifo Konjunkturprognose 2005: Abgehängt von der Weltkonjunktur," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 57(24), pages 15-53, December.
    5. Schmahl, Hans-Jürgen, 1987. "Weshalb unterschiedliche Prognosen?," Wirtschaftsdienst – Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik (1949 - 2007), ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 67(5), pages 214-215.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gerit Vogt, 2009. "Konjunkturprognose in Deutschland. Ein Beitrag zur Prognose der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung auf Bundes- und Länderebene," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 36.
    2. Steffen Henzel & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2014. "Evaluation der ifo Konjunkturprognosen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(17), pages 43-45, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Konjunktur; Konjunkturprognose; Entwicklung; Deutschland;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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