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Prognosestopp – ja oder nein?

Author

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  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

Abstract

Im laufenden Jahr mussten die Prognosen für Deutschland und die Weltwirtschaft von allen nationalen wie internationalen Prognoseinstitutionen scharf »nach unten« revidiert werden. Dies hat in der Öffentlichkeit teilweise zu Irritationen und es wurde auf die Gefahr einer „self-fulfilling prophecy“ verwiesen. Konjunkturprognosen sind und bleiben aber, trotz eines gewissen Ausmaßes an Unsicherheit, für die Orientierung der Entscheidungsträger von Wirtschaft und Politik unentbehrlich.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2008. "Prognosestopp – ja oder nein?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(24), pages 1-83, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:61:y:2008:i:24:p:83
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Methoden der Konjunkturprognose," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(04), pages 7-23, February.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Konjunkturprognose; Wirtschaftsprognose; Wirtschaftsforschunginstitut; Deutschland;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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