IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ces/ifosdt/v61y2008i24p83.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Prognosestopp – ja oder nein?

Author

Listed:
  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

Abstract

Im laufenden Jahr mussten die Prognosen für Deutschland und die Weltwirtschaft von allen nationalen wie internationalen Prognoseinstitutionen scharf »nach unten« revidiert werden. Dies hat in der Öffentlichkeit teilweise zu Irritationen und es wurde auf die Gefahr einer „self-fulfilling prophecy“ verwiesen. Konjunkturprognosen sind und bleiben aber, trotz eines gewissen Ausmaßes an Unsicherheit, für die Orientierung der Entscheidungsträger von Wirtschaft und Politik unentbehrlich.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2008. "Prognosestopp – ja oder nein?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(24), pages 1-83, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:61:y:2008:i:24:p:83
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/ifosd_2008_24_6.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Methoden der Konjunkturprognose," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(04), pages 7-23, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Georg Goldrian, 2003. "Kurzfristige Branchenprognosen auf Basis von Ergebnissen des ifo Konjunkturtests," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(08), pages 31-33, April.
    2. Oliver Hülsewig & Johannes Mayr & Dirk Ulbricht, 2007. "Zur Evaluierung von VAR-Prognosen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(07), pages 19-25, April.
    3. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "ifo Handbuch der Konjunkturumfragen," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 88.
    4. Goodhart Charles A.E., 2005. "The Monetary Policy Committee's Reaction Function: An Exercise in Estimation," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-42, August.
    5. Döhrn Roland & Schmidt Christoph M., 2011. "Information or Institution?: On the Determinants of Forecast Accuracy," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 231(1), pages 9-27, February.
    6. Anna Billharz & Steffen Elstner & Marcus Jüppner, 2012. "Methoden der ifo Kurzfristprognose am Beispiel der Ausrüstungsinvestitionen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(21), pages 24-33, November.
    7. Berlemann, Michael & Vogt, Gerit, 2007. "Kurzfristige Wachstumseffekte von Naturkatastrophen," Working Paper 69/2007, Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg.
    8. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2013. "Konjunkturprognosen heute – Möglichkeiten und Probleme," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(01), pages 25-32, January.
    9. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2005. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2004: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 58(03), pages 26-30, February.
    10. Michael Groemling, 2005. "Konjunkturprognosen – Verfahren, Erfolgskontrolle und Prognosefehler," Departmental Discussion Papers 123, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    11. Ulrich Heilemann & Susanne Schnorr-Bäcker, 2016. "Could The Start Of The German Recession 2008-2009 Have Been Foreseen? Evidence From Real-Time Data," Working Papers 2016-003, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    12. Jan Jacobs & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2005. "Do Ifo Indicators Help Explain Revisions in German Industrial Production?," Contributions to Economics, in: Jan-Egbert Sturm & Timo Wollmershäuser (ed.), Ifo Survey Data in Business Cycle and Monetary Policy Analysis, pages 93-114, Springer.
    13. repec:ces:ifosdt:v:61:y:2008:i:24:p:83-83 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Goodhart, Charles, 2004. "The Monetary Policy Committee's reaction function: an exercise in estimation," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24708, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Brunhart, Andreas, 2019. "Der neue Konjunkturindex "KonSens": Ein gleichlaufender, vierteljährlicher Sammelindikator für Liechtenstein," EconStor Preprints 225261, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    16. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2005. "Zur Einführung der Vorjahrespreisbasis in der deutschen Statistik: Konsequenzen für die Konjunkturanalyse," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 58(05), pages 19-27, March.
    17. Stephan Sauer & Jan‐Egbert Sturm, 2007. "Using Taylor Rules to Understand European Central Bank Monetary Policy," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(3), pages 375-398, August.
    18. Heilemann Ullrich, 2015. "Literaturbeitrag / Review Paper. Macroeconometric Models – From “Little Science” to “Big Science”," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 235(1), pages 82-89, February.
    19. repec:bla:germec:v:8:y:2007:i::p:375-398 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Stephan Sauer & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Using Taylor Rules to Understand ECB Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 1110, CESifo.
    21. Steffen Elstner & Christian Grimme & Ulrich Haskamp, 2013. "Das ifo Exportklima – ein Frühindikator für die deutsche Exportprognose," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(04), pages 36-43, March.
    22. Gerit Vogt, 2010. "Zur Güte der ifo Dresden Konjunkturprognosen," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 17(01), pages 28-32, 02.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Konjunkturprognose; Wirtschaftsprognose; Wirtschaftsforschunginstitut; Deutschland;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:61:y:2008:i:24:p:83. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifooode.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.