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Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2002: Prognose und Wirklichkeit

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  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

Abstract

Das vergangene Jahr hat sich für die deutsche Wirtschaft rückblickend als ein weiteres Jahr der enttäuschten Konjunkturhoffnungen herausgestellt; auch das ifo Institut musste seine Deutschlandprognose im Jahresverlauf nach unten korrigieren. Die erwartete konjunkturelle Belebung in der zweiten Jahreshälfte 2002 blieb aus. Maßgeblich für die niedrige Leistung der deutschen Wirtschaft waren die durch den Irak-Konflikt ausgelösten Unsicherheiten, der Anstieg des Rohölpreises und die starken Kursrückgänge an den Finanzmärkten. Auch erwies sich die US-Konjunktur als wenig gefestigt.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2003. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2002: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(02), pages 20-23, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:56:y:2003:i:02:p:20-23
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2001. "Konjunkturprognosen und Prognoserisiko," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(16), pages 17-21, October.
    2. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 1999. "Aus dem Instrumentenkasten der Konjunkturanalyse : Veränderungen im Vergleich," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 52(27), pages 11-19, October.
    3. Emile Grunberg & Franco Modigliani, 1954. "The Predictability of Social Events," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(6), pages 465-465.
    4. Hans-Werner Sinn & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Wolfgang Meister, 2001. "Vor der Talsohle," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(24), pages 27-42, January.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Konjunktur; Konjunkturprognose; Deutschland;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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