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Kurzfristige Branchenprognosen auf Basis von Ergebnissen des ifo Konjunkturtests

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  • Georg Goldrian

Abstract

Die Ergebnisse des Konjunkturtests des ifo Instituts gelten allgemein als Frühindikatoren für die aktuelle konjunkturelle Entwicklung in Deutschland. Schon die Beurteilung der Lage hat einen Veröffentlichungsvorsprung von etwa sechs Wochen gegenüber den entsprechenden Daten der amtlichen Statistik. Die Erwartungen weisen darüber hinaus in die Zukunft von drei bis sechs Monaten. Führt man die Befragungsergebnisse mit und ohne Daten der amtlichen Statistik in Modellansätzen zusammen, so kann man die kurzfristige konjunkturelle Entwicklung von wirtschaftlichen Größen, z.B. Konjunkturtendenzen auf Branchenebene, zuverlässig prognostizieren.

Suggested Citation

  • Georg Goldrian, 2003. "Kurzfristige Branchenprognosen auf Basis von Ergebnissen des ifo Konjunkturtests," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(08), pages 31-33, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:56:y:2003:i:08:p:31-33
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    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/ifosd_2003_8_4.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Methoden der Konjunkturprognose," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(04), pages 7-23, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Georg Goldrian, 2003. "Zur Aussagekraft der Ergebnisse des ifo Konjunkturtests auf regionaler Ebene," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(11), pages 30-33, June.
    2. Robert Lehmann, 2023. "The Forecasting Power of the ifo Business Survey," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(1), pages 43-94, March.
    3. Georg Goldrian, 2004. "Ein Frühindikator für die Entwicklung des Bruttoinlandsprodukts," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 57(07), pages 41-43, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Branchenkonjunktur; Branchenentwicklung; Prognose;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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