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Zur Evaluierung von VAR-Prognosen

Author

Listed:
  • Oliver Hülsewig
  • Johannes Mayr
  • Dirk Ulbricht

Abstract

In diesem Beitrag wird die Verwendung von VAR-Modellen für die Prognose des realen Bruttoinlandsprodukts in den Vereinigten Staaten analysiert. Den Ausgangspunkt bildet ein Basismodell, das neben dem realen BIP den Verbraucherpreisindex sowie einen kurzfristigen Geldmarktsatz enthält. Das Basismodell wird anschließend durch die Einbeziehung zusätzlicher makroökonomischer Variablen schrittweise erweitert. Die Prognosen der einzelnen Modelle, die als out-of-sample Prognosen generiert werden, werden für verschiedene Schätzzeiträume anhand unterschiedlicher Maße zur Überprüfung der Anpassungsgüte evaluiert. Es zeigt sich, dass die Prognosen der VAR-Modelle durchschnittlich schlechter als die eines univariaten AR(2)-Prozesses abschneiden. Die Qualität der Prognosen variiert jedoch stark in den betrachteten Schätzzeiträumen, so dass die VAR-Prognosen in einzelnen Perioden die AR(2)-Prognosen deutlich dominieren. Für die Erstellung von Prognosen erscheint es daher empfehlenswert zu sein, mehrere Modelle simultan zu betrachten.

Suggested Citation

  • Oliver Hülsewig & Johannes Mayr & Dirk Ulbricht, 2007. "Zur Evaluierung von VAR-Prognosen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(07), pages 19-25, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:60:y:2007:i:07:p:19-25
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Anna Billharz & Steffen Elstner & Marcus Jüppner, 2012. "Methoden der ifo Kurzfristprognose am Beispiel der Ausrüstungsinvestitionen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(21), pages 24-33, November.
    2. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse: Band II," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 72, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    VAR-Modell; Prognose; Sozialprodukt; Konjunkturprognose; Lebenshaltungsindex; Geldmarkt; Vereinigte Staaten;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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