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Methoden der Konjunkturprognose

Author

Listed:
  • Wolfgang Nierhaus
  • Jan-Egbert Sturm

Abstract

Im Sommer und zum Jahresende veröffentlicht das ifo Institut seine Konjunkturprognosen für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland. Im Frühjahr und im Herbst nimmt es an der Gemeinschaftsdiagnose der sechs führenden Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitute teil. Der Beitrag beschreibt, welche makroökonomischen Aggregate prognostiziert werden und welche Methoden dabei angewandt werden. Im Einzelnen werden die ökonometrische Prognose, der Indikatoransatz und das iterativ-analytische Verfahren vorgestellt. Außerdem wird auf die besonderen Spezifika der ifo Konjunkturprognose eingegangen.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Nierhaus & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Methoden der Konjunkturprognose," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(04), pages 7-23, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:56:y:2003:i:04:p:7-23
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    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/ifosd_2003_4_1.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 1998. "Praktische Methoden der Konjunkturprognose," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 51(28), pages 07-19, October.
    2. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 1999. "Aus dem Instrumentenkasten der Konjunkturanalyse : Veränderungen im Vergleich," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 52(27), pages 11-19, October.
    3. Hirotugu Akaike, 1969. "Fitting autoregressive models for prediction," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 21(1), pages 243-247, December.
    4. Stock, James H, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Least Squares Estimators of Cointegrating Vectors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 1035-1056, September.
    5. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    6. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Konjunkturprognose; Wissenschaftliche Methode;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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