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Kurzfristige Wachstumseffekte von Naturkatastrophen

Author

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  • Berlemann, Michael

    (Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg)

  • Vogt, Gerit

    (ifo Institut fuer Wirtschaftsforschung, Niederlassung Dresden)

Abstract

Die Haeufigkeit von Naturkatastrophen hat in den letzten Jahrzehnten deutlich zugenommen. Vor diesem Hintergrund gewinnt die Frage an Bedeutung, welche oekonomischen Konsequenzen mit dem Auftreten von Naturkatastrophen verbunden sind. In der Literatur werden sowohl Argumente fuer positive als auch negative Wachstumseffekte diskutiert. In diesem Aufsatz wird mit Hilfe von oekonometrischen Zeitreihenmodellen untersucht, inwieweit sich die Hochwasserkatastrophe vom August 2002 kurzfristig auf das Wirtschaftswachstum in Sachsen ausgewirkt hat. Den Ergebnissen zufolge ueberwogen die positiven Wachstumseffekte. Ohne die Flutkatastrophe waere das Wachstum des saechsischen Bruttoinlandsproduktes in den Jahren 2002, 2003 und 2004 vermutlich um 0,6, 1,8 beziehungsweise 0,5 Prozentpunkte niedriger ausgefallen.

Suggested Citation

  • Berlemann, Michael & Vogt, Gerit, 2007. "Kurzfristige Wachstumseffekte von Naturkatastrophen," Working Paper 69/2007, Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:vhsuwp:2007_069
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Gerit Vogt, 2009. "Konjunkturprognose in Deutschland. Ein Beitrag zur Prognose der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung auf Bundes- und Länderebene," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 36.
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    4. Mona Förtsch & Xenia Frei & Anna Kremer & Lisa-Marie Müller, 2021. "Die Resilienz deutscher Kreise gegenüber der Naturkatastrophe Sturm „Lothar“," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 28(02), pages 09-14, April.
    5. Berlemann, Michael, 2015. "Hurricane Risk, Happiness and Life Satisfaction. Some Empirical Evidence on the Indirect Effects of Natural Disasters," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113073, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Heike Auerswald & Robert Lehmann, 2011. "Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf das Verarbeitende Gewerbe – Ergebnisse einer Unternehmensbefragung," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 18(02), pages 16-22, April.
    7. Roland Döhrn & György Barabas & Heinz Gebhardt & Tobias Kitlinski & Martin Micheli & Simeon Vosen & Lina Zwick, 2013. "Deutsche Konjunktur bleibt aufwärts gerichtet," RWI Konjunkturbericht, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, pages 10, 06.
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    11. Döhrn, Roland & Barabas, György & Gebhardt, Heinz & Kitlinski, Tobias & Micheli, Martin & Vosen, Simeon & Zwick, Lina, 2013. "Deutsche Konjunktur bleibt aufwärts gerichtet," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 64(2), pages 5-14.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Naturkatastrophen; Wirtschaftswachstum; Zeitreihenmodelle;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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