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Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2018: Prognose und Wirklichkeit

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  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

Abstract

Das ifo Institut beleuchtet seit Jahren kritisch die Qualität der eigenen Konjunkturprognosen, die jeweils im Dezember eines Jahres für das darauf folgende Kalenderjahr abgegeben werden. In dem Beitrag wird die ifo Prog­nose vom Dezember 2017 für das Jahr 2018 vor dem Hintergrund der am 15. Januar 2019 veröffentlichten amtlichen Ergebnisse der Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnungen diskutiert. Das Ergebnis: Die Prognose des ifo Instituts für die jahresdurchschnittliche Veränderungsrate des realen Bruttoinlandsprodukts im Jahr 2018 war offenkundig zu »optimistisch«. Im Dezember 2017 war eine Zuwachsrate in Höhe von 2,6% prognostiziert worden, die erste vorläufige amtliche BIP-Schätzung für das Jahr 2018 beläuft sich auf 1,5%. Die in der Risikoansprache aufgeführten weltwirtschaftlichen Prognoserisiken »nach unten« hatten sich teilweise materialisiert, zudem gab es binnenwirtschaftlich negativ wirkende Sondereffekte. Zur Überschätzung der Jahreswachstumsrate 2018 hat überdies die Überschätzung des statistischen Überhangs beigetragen.

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  • Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2019. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2018: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(03), pages 22-29, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:72:y:2019:i:03:p:22-29
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    Cited by:

    1. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2020. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2019: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(01), pages 51-57, January.
    2. Mönnig Anke & Maier Tobias & Zika Gerd, 2019. "Economy 4.0 – Digitalisation and Its Effect on Wage Inequality," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 239(3), pages 363-398, June.

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    Keywords

    Konjunktur; Konjunkturprognose; Wirtschaftslage; Geschäftsklima;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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