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Do Ifo Indicators Help Explain Revisions in German Industrial Production?

In: Ifo Survey Data in Business Cycle and Monetary Policy Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Jan Jacobs

    (University of Groningen)

  • Jan-Egbert Sturm

    (University of Konstanz and CESifo
    Thurgau Institute of Economics)

Abstract

This paper studies the information content of some Ifo indicators. In particular, we investigate whether two Ifo indicators, one on the current business situation, the other on current production development, provide information on revisions of German industrial production. A new feature of our analysis is the construction and use of a real-time dataset. We conclude that the Ifo indicators play a role in explaining revisions, but counterintuitively the business situation indicator performs better than the production indicator.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Jacobs & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2005. "Do Ifo Indicators Help Explain Revisions in German Industrial Production?," Contributions to Economics, in: Jan-Egbert Sturm & Timo Wollmershäuser (ed.), Ifo Survey Data in Business Cycle and Monetary Policy Analysis, pages 93-114, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:conchp:978-3-7908-1605-1_5
    DOI: 10.1007/3-7908-1605-1_5
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christopher Bajada, 2002. "The Effects of Inflation and the Business Cycle on Revisions of Macroeconomic Data," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 35(3), pages 276-286, September.
    2. Croushore, Dean & Stark, Tom, 2001. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 111-130, November.
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    6. Erich Langmantel, 1999. "Das ifo Geschäftsklima als Indikator für die Prognose des Bruttoinlandsprodukts," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 52(16-17), pages 16-21, October.
    7. Fritsche Ulrich & Stephan Sabine, 2002. "Leading Indicators of German Business Cycles. An Assessment of Properties / Frühindikatoren der deutschen Konjunktur. Eine Beurteilung ihrer Eigenschaften," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 222(3), pages 289-315, June.
    8. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Methoden der Konjunkturprognose," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(04), pages 7-23, February.
    9. Hirotugu Akaike, 1969. "Fitting autoregressive models for prediction," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 21(1), pages 243-247, December.
    10. Schröder, Michael & Hüfner, Felix P., 2002. "Forecasting economic activity in Germany: how useful are sentiment indicators?," ZEW Discussion Papers 02-56, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
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