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How common and how large are cost overruns in transport infrastructure projects?

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  1. Erica Bosio & Simeon Djankov & Edward Glaeser & Andrei Shleifer, 2022. "Public Procurement in Law and Practice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1091-1117, April.
  2. Volden, Gro Holst, 2018. "Public project success as seen in a broad perspective," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 109-117.
  3. Börjesson, Maria & Jonsson, R. Daniel & Lundberg, Mattias, 2014. "An ex-post CBA for the Stockholm Metro," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 135-148.
  4. White, Laura & Rochet, Jean-Louis & Mathias, Pete & O'Gorman, Kate & Bilmes, Linda, 2017. "Connecting the Northeast: A Cost Estimate for the North South Rail Link," Working Paper Series rwp17-032, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  5. Chantal C. Cantarelli & Bert van Wee & Eric J. E. Molin & Bent Flyvbjerg, 2013. "Different Cost Performance: Different Determinants? The Case of Cost Overruns in Dutch Transportation Infrastructure Projects," Papers 1307.2179, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2015.
  6. Cantarelli, C.C. & van Wee, B. & Molin, E.J.E. & Flyvbjerg, B., 2012. "Different cost performance: different determinants?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 88-95.
  7. Ganuza, Juan-José & Llobet, Gerard, 2020. "The simple economics of white elephants," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 91-100.
  8. José Martins & Rui Cunha Marques & Carlos Oliveira Cruz & Álvaro Fonseca, 2017. "Flexibility in planning and development of a container terminal: an application of an American-style call option," Transportation Planning and Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(7), pages 828-840, October.
  9. Jorge Valido, 2020. "Large Infrastructure Investments: Financing Mechanisms and Incentives in Decentralised Countries," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(4), pages 905-921, December.
  10. Mauro Bambi & Cristina Girolami & Salvatore Federico & Fausto Gozzi, 2017. "Generically distributed investments on flexible projects and endogenous growth," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 63(2), pages 521-558, February.
  11. Love, Peter E.D. & Sing, Michael C.P. & Ika, Lavagnon A. & Newton, Sidney, 2019. "The cost performance of transportation projects: The fallacy of the Planning Fallacy account," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 1-20.
  12. Saqib Mehmood & Jianqiang Fan & Idris Salim Dokota & Samera Nazir & Zarish Nazir, 2024. "How to Manage Supply Chains Successfully in Transport Infrastructure Projects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-28, January.
  13. Ernst ten Heuvelhof & Martijn Leijten, 2013. "New Public Management and the new features of strategic behaviour," Chapters, in: Hugo Priemus & Bert van Wee (ed.), International Handbook on Mega-Projects, chapter 6, pages 111-130, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  14. Per Erik Eriksson & Stefan Olander & Henrik Szentes & Kristian Widén, 2014. "Managing short-term efficiency and long-term development through industrialized construction," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1-2), pages 97-108, February.
  15. C. Guccio & G. Pignataro & I. Rizzo, 2012. "Determinants of adaptation costs in procurement: an empirical estimation on Italian public works contracts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(15), pages 1891-1909, May.
  16. Bucciol, Alessandro & Chillemi, Ottorino & Palazzi, Giacomo, 2013. "Cost overrun and auction format in small size public works," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 35-42.
  17. Paul Collier & Martina Kirchberger & Måns Söderbom, 2016. "The Cost of Road Infrastructure in Low- and Middle-Income Countries," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 30(3), pages 522-548.
  18. Cantarelli, C.C. & Molin, E.J.E. & van Wee, B. & Flyvbjerg, B., 2012. "Characteristics of cost overruns for Dutch transport infrastructure projects and the importance of the decision to build and project phases," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 49-56.
  19. Cantarelli, C.C. & Flyvbjerg, B. & Buhl, S.L., 2012. "Geographical variation in project cost performance: the Netherlands versus worldwide," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 324-331.
  20. Regmi, Madan B., 2024. "Governance of urban mobility policies and plans in Asian cities," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 108-121.
  21. Hultkrantz, Lars & A. Krüger, Niclas & Mantalos, Panagiotis, 2014. "Risk-adjusted long-term social rates of discount for transportation infrastructure investment," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 70-81.
  22. Juan-José Ganuza & Gerard Llobet, 2017. "The Simple Economics of White Elephants," Working Papers wp2018_1701, CEMFI.
  23. Øglend, Atle & Osmundsen, Petter & Lorentzen, Sindre, 2016. "Cost Overrun at the Norwegian Continental Shelf: The element of surprise," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2016/3, University of Stavanger.
  24. David Banister & Michael Browne & Moshe Givoni, 2010. "Transport Reviews—The 30-super-th Anniversary of the Journal," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 1-10, January.
  25. Lindsey, Robin & de Palma, André, 2014. "Cost recovery from congestion tolls with long-run uncertainty," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 119-132.
  26. Prakash, Nishith & Rockmore, Marc & Uppal, Yogesh, 2019. "Do criminally accused politicians affect economic outcomes? Evidence from India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
  27. Suo YanJu & Yuslina Mohamed, 2021. "Implementation of Voice Recording Activities in Improving Mandarin Oral Fluency," European Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies Articles, Revistia Research and Publishing, vol. 3, September.
  28. Nandita Vadali & Anand Prakash Tiwari & Thillai Rajan A., 2014. "Effect of the Political Environment on Public Private Partnership Projects," Journal of Infrastructure Development, India Development Foundation, vol. 6(2), pages 145-165, December.
  29. Gallego, Jorge & Rivero, Gonzalo & Martínez, Juan, 2021. "Preventing rather than punishing: An early warning model of malfeasance in public procurement," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 360-377.
  30. Cavalieri, Marina & Cristaudo, Rossana & Guccio, Calogero, 2019. "On the magnitude of cost overruns throughout the project life-cycle: An assessment for the Italian transport infrastructure projects," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 21-36.
  31. Vincent van den Berg, 2013. "Over- and Under-Bidding in Tendering," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-033/VIII, Tinbergen Institute.
  32. Abdullah M. Alsugair, 2022. "Cost Deviation Model of Construction Projects in Saudi Arabia Using PLS-SEM," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-21, December.
  33. Shahin Shakibaei & Pelin Alpkokin, 2019. "Conflict Resolution in Competitive Liberalized Railway Market: Application of Game Theoretic Concepts," International Game Theory Review (IGTR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(01), pages 1-21, November.
  34. Vincent van den Berg, 2012. "Advantaged Bidders in Franchise Auctions," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-117/VIII, Tinbergen Institute.
  35. Holz-Rau, Christian & Scheiner, Joachim, 2011. "Safety and travel time in cost-benefit analysis: A sensitivity analysis for North Rhine-Westphalia," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 336-346, March.
  36. Dejan Makovšek & Marian Moszoro, 2018. "Risk pricing inefficiency in public–private partnerships," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(3), pages 298-321, May.
  37. Iyer K. Chandrashekhar & Banerjee Partha S., 2016. "Project ambidexterity: case of recovering schedule delay in a brownfield airport project in India," Organization, Technology and Management in Construction, Sciendo, vol. 8(1), pages 1464-1481, December.
  38. Osmundsen, Petter & Roll, Kristin Helen, 2016. "Rig rates and drilling speed: reinforcing effects," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2016/4, University of Stavanger.
  39. Santanu Chatterjee & Olaf Posch & Dennis Wesselbaum, 2017. "Delays in Public Goods," CESifo Working Paper Series 6341, CESifo.
  40. Molinari, Laura & Haezendonck, Elvira & Mabillard, Vincent, 2023. "Cost overruns of Belgian transport infrastructure projects: Analyzing variations over three land transport modes and two project phases," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 167-179.
  41. Lane, Bradley W., 2008. "Significant characteristics of the urban rail renaissance in the United States: A discriminant analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 279-295, February.
  42. Miranda Sarmento, J.J. & Renneboog, Luc, 2017. "Cost overruns in public sector investment projects," Other publications TiSEM 51799a3e-4c78-4dbd-b330-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  43. Fang, F., 2019. "When performance shortfall arises, contract or trust? A multi-method study of the impact of contractual and relational governances on performance in public – private partnerships," Other publications TiSEM 473840ee-6945-4a93-9326-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  44. Gabriela Dufková, 2022. "Time and Budget Overruns on Czech International Development Projects," Journal of Economics / Ekonomicky casopis, Institute of Economic Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences, vol. 70(7-8), pages 622-645, July.
  45. Checherita, Cristina & Gifford, Jonathan, 2007. "Risk Sharing in Public-Private Partnerships: General Considerations and an Evaluation of the U.S. Practice in Road Transportation," 48th Annual Transportation Research Forum, Boston, Massachusetts, March 15-17, 2007 207820, Transportation Research Forum.
  46. Pessino, Carola & Izquierdo, Alejandro & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2018. "Better Spending for Better Lives: How Latin America and the Caribbean Can Do More with Less," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 9152, November.
  47. Love, Peter E.D. & Ika, Lavagnon A. & Ahiaga-Dagbui, Dominic D., 2019. "On de-bunking ‘fake news’ in a post truth era: Why does the Planning Fallacy explanation for cost overruns fall short?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 397-408.
  48. Sivakumaran, Karthik & Li, Yuwei & Cassidy, Michael & Madanat, Samer, 2014. "Access and the choice of transit technology," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 204-221.
  49. Brian Taylor & Eric Morris, 2015. "Public transportation objectives and rider demographics: are transit’s priorities poor public policy?," Transportation, Springer, vol. 42(2), pages 347-367, March.
  50. Salling, Kim Bang & Leleur, Steen, 2015. "Accounting for the inaccuracies in demand forecasts and construction cost estimations in transport project evaluation," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 8-18.
  51. van den Berg, Vincent A.C. & Rouwendal, Jan, 2016. "Tender auctions with existing operators bidding," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 6(C), pages 1-10.
  52. Abeysekara, Baudhi & Perera, Piyaruwan & Chhipi Shrestha, Gyan Kumar & Gunaruwan, Lalithasiri & Kumarage, Amal & Sadiq, Rehan & Hewage, Kasun, 2021. "Improving the capital deployment efficiency: An infrastructure investment planning process in transportation project," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
  53. Bent Flyvbjerg & Alexander Budzier, 2018. "Report for the Edinburgh Tram Inquiry," Papers 1805.12106, arXiv.org.
  54. Barfod, Michael Bruhn & Salling, Kim Bang, 2015. "A new composite decision support framework for strategic and sustainable transport appraisals," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-15.
  55. Locatelli, Giorgio & Invernizzi, Diletta Colette & Brookes, Naomi J., 2017. "Project characteristics and performance in Europe: An empirical analysis for large transport infrastructure projects," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 108-122.
  56. Makovšek, Dejan, 2014. "Systematic construction risk, cost estimation mechanism and unit price movements," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 135-145.
  57. Miranda Sarmento, J.J., 2014. "Public private partnerships," Other publications TiSEM c7d4c978-234c-4f88-83ed-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  58. Huimin Liu & Canhui Jiang & Yan Liu & Marcel Hertogh & Xue Lyu, 2018. "Optimism Bias Evaluation and Decision-Making Risk Forecast on Bridge Project Cost Based on Reference Class Forecasting: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-29, October.
  59. Catalão, Francisco Pinheiro & Cruz, Carlos Oliveira & Sarmento, Joaquim Miranda, 2019. "The determinants of cost deviations and overruns in transport projects, an endogenous models approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 224-238.
  60. Meyer, Kevin, 2016. "Immobilienbeschaffung durch lebenszyklusübergreifende Wertschöpfungspartnerschaften: Empirische Analyse der Chancen und Risiken betrieblicher Immobiliennutzer," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 81267, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
  61. Guccio, Calogero & Pignataro, Giacomo & Rizzo, Ilde, 2014. "Do local governments do it better? Analysis of time performance in the execution of public works," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 237-252.
  62. Chantal C. Cantarelli & Bent Flybjerg & Eric J. E. Molin & Bert van Wee, 2013. "Cost overruns in Large-Scale Transportation Infrastructure Projects: Explanations and Their Theoretical Embeddedness," Papers 1307.2176, arXiv.org.
  63. Campa, Juan Luis & Arce, Rosa & López-Lambas, María Eugenia & Guirao, Begoña, 2018. "Can HSR improve the mobility of international tourists visiting Spain? Territorial evidence derived from the Spanish experience," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 94-107.
  64. Francisco Pinheiro Catalão & Carlos Oliveira Cruz & Joaquim Miranda Sarmento, 2023. "The entanglement of time and cost deviations in public projects," Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 94(1), pages 241-272, March.
  65. Schubert, Daniel & Sys, Christa & Vanelslander, Thierry & Roumboutsos, Athena, 2022. "No-queue road pricing: A comprehensive policy instrument for Europe?," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
  66. Fazekas, Mihály & Tóth, Bence, 2018. "The extent and cost of corruption in transport infrastructure. New evidence from Europe," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 35-54.
  67. Christos Ellinas & Christos Nicolaides & Naoki Masuda, 2022. "Mitigation strategies against cascading failures within a project activity network," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 383-400, May.
  68. Joseph Sturm & Mashrur Chowdhury & Anne Dunning & Jennifer Ogle, 2011. "Analysis of cost estimation disclosure in environmental impact statements for surface transportation projects," Transportation, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 525-544, May.
  69. Ram Singh, 2018. "Public–private partnerships vs. traditional contracts for highways," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 29-63, December.
  70. Rubina Canesi & Beatrice Gallo, 2023. "Risk Assessment in Sustainable Infrastructure Development Projects: A Tool for Mitigating Cost Overruns," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-22, December.
  71. Olav Torp & Ole Jonny Klakegg, 2016. "Challenges in Cost Estimation under Uncertainty—A Case Study of the Decommissioning of Barsebäck Nuclear Power Plant," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-21, October.
  72. Love, Peter E.D. & Ahiaga-Dagbui, Dominic D., 2018. "Debunking fake news in a post-truth era: The plausible untruths of cost underestimation in transport infrastructure projects," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 357-368.
  73. Hansson, Lisa, 2020. "Public administrators’ roles in the policy adaptation of transport directives: How knowledge is created and reproduced," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 208-216.
  74. Mouter, Niek & Annema, Jan Anne & van Wee, Bert, 2013. "Ranking the substantive problems in the Dutch Cost–Benefit Analysis practice," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 241-255.
  75. Andrew Sudmant & Vincent Viguié & Quentin Lepetit & Lucy Oates & Abhijit Datey & Andy Gouldson & David Watling, 2021. "Fair weather forecasting? The shortcomings of big data for sustainable development, a case study from Hubballi‐Dharwad, India," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(6), pages 1237-1248, November.
  76. Lindsey, Robin, 2012. "Road pricing and investment," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 49-63.
  77. Peter E D Love & Jim Smith & Ian Simpson & Michael Regan & Oluwole Olatunji, 2015. "Understanding the Landscape of Overruns in Transport Infrastructure Projects," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 42(3), pages 490-509, June.
  78. Stefano Moroni, 2014. "Grandi e piccole opere Per un?azione pubblica responsabile," SCIENZE REGIONALI, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2014(3), pages 103-112.
  79. Steininger, Bertram & Groth, Martin & Weber, Birgitte, 2020. "Cost overruns and delays in infrastructure projects: the case of Stuttgart 21," Working Paper Series 20/11, Royal Institute of Technology, Department of Real Estate and Construction Management & Banking and Finance.
  80. Mauro Bambi & Cristina Di Girolami & Salvatore Federico & Fausto Gozzi, 2014. "On the Consequences of Generically Distributed Investments on Flexible Projects in an Endogenous Growth Model," Discussion Papers 14/15, Department of Economics, University of York.
  81. Tobias Onshuus Malvik & Agnar Johansen & Olav Torp & Nils O. E. Olsson, 2021. "Evaluation of Target Value Delivery and Opportunity Management as Complementary Practices," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-19, July.
  82. Lisa Hansson & Lena Nerhagen, 2019. "Regulatory Measurements in Policy Coordinated Practices: The Case of Promoting Renewable Energy and Cleaner Transport in Sweden," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-18, March.
  83. Välilä, Timo, 2020. "An overview of economic theory and evidence of public-private partnerships in the procurement of (transport) infrastructure," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
  84. Nogues Comas,Antoni Albert & Mendes Dos Santos,Nuno Filipe, 2021. "Measuring Public Procurement Rules and Practices : Benchmarking a Recurrent Infrastructure Contract," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9651, The World Bank.
  85. Jarosław Górecki & Manuel Díaz-Madroñero, 2020. "Who Risks and Wins?—Simulated Cost Variance in Sustainable Construction Projects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-31, April.
  86. Salling, Kim Bang & Banister, David, 2009. "Assessment of large transport infrastructure projects: The CBA-DK model," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 43(9-10), pages 800-813, November.
  87. Chong, Uven & Hopkins, Omar, 2016. "An international experience on the evolution of road costs during the project life cycle," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 60-66.
  88. Giezen, Mendel & Salet, Willem & Bertolini, Luca, 2015. "Adding value to the decision-making process of mega projects: Fostering strategic ambiguity, redundancy, and resilience," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 169-178.
  89. Odeck, James, 2014. "Do reforms reduce the magnitudes of cost overruns in road projects? Statistical evidence from Norway," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 68-79.
  90. Steen Lichtenberg, 2016. "Successful Control of Major Project Budgets," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-14, July.
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