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Do reforms reduce the magnitudes of cost overruns in road projects? Statistical evidence from Norway

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  • Odeck, James

Abstract

Although governments often respond to the prevalent cost overruns of transportation projects by reforming the agencies charged with overseeing the construction of projects, the transportation research literature has not provided statistical evidence as to whether such reforms assist in reducing cost overruns. This paper provides such evidence using the Norwegian road sector as a case study. The agency in question was reformed twice, from a monopolistic to a semi-monopolistic organization, and finally, to a fully competitive organization in which road construction was divided out into a separate company and privatized. In this work, we use statistical inferences to explore the related issues. The data set is composed of 1045 projects evenly distributed across the three organizational forms. The results demonstrate that the impact of the reforms has not been equal. The most important impact occurred in the final reform of full competition in which both the cost overruns and delays in construction among larger projects were greatly reduced. The second reform appears to have had a contrasting impact. For transportation research in general, we call for additional studies that will reveal the extent to which efforts carried out by governments (such as reforms) improve the efficiency of these sectors.

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  • Odeck, James, 2014. "Do reforms reduce the magnitudes of cost overruns in road projects? Statistical evidence from Norway," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 68-79.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:65:y:2014:i:c:p:68-79
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2014.04.005
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    Cited by:

    1. Bartlomiej Rokicki, 2022. "Cost Underruns in Major Road Transport Infrastructure Projects—The Surprising Experience of Poland," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-18, November.
    2. Odeck, James & Kjerkreit, Anne, 2019. "The accuracy of benefit-cost analyses (BCAs) in transportation: An ex-post evaluation of road projects," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 277-294.
    3. Daniel Gurara & Mr. Kangni R Kpodar & Mr. Andrea F Presbitero & Dawit Tessema, 2020. "On the Capacity to Absorb Public Investment: How Much is Too Much?," IMF Working Papers 2020/048, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Cavalieri, Marina & Cristaudo, Rossana & Guccio, Calogero, 2019. "On the magnitude of cost overruns throughout the project life-cycle: An assessment for the Italian transport infrastructure projects," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 21-36.
    5. Miranda Sarmento, J.J. & Renneboog, Luc, 2017. "Cost overruns in public sector investment projects," Other publications TiSEM 51799a3e-4c78-4dbd-b330-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. Marijo Lovrinčević & Mladen Vukomanović & Romano Perić, 2024. "Influence of Technical Reasons on Cost Overruns of Infrastructural Projects: A Sustainable Development Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(21), pages 1-20, October.
    7. Yarmukhamedov, Sherzod & Smith, Andrew S.J. & Thiebaud, Jean-Christophe, 2020. "Competitive tendering, ownership and cost efficiency in road maintenance services in Sweden: A panel data analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 194-204.
    8. James Odeck, 2019. "Variation in cost overruns of transportation projects: an econometric meta-regression analysis of studies reported in the literature," Transportation, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 1345-1368, August.
    9. Chong, Uven & Hopkins, Omar, 2016. "An international experience on the evolution of road costs during the project life cycle," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 60-66.
    10. Spohr, Jonas & Wikström, Kim & Ronikonmäki, Niko-Matti & Lepech, Michael & In, Soh Young, 2024. "Are private investors overcompensated in infrastructure projects?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 1-8.
    11. Gurara, Daniel & Kpodar, Kangni & Presbitero, Andrea F. & Tessema, Dawit, 2021. "On the capacity to absorb public investment: How much is too much?☆," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    12. Dejan Makovšek & Adrian Bridge, 2021. "Procurement Choices and Infrastructure Costs," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Analysis and Infrastructure Investment, pages 277-327, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Abeysekara, Baudhi & Perera, Piyaruwan & Chhipi Shrestha, Gyan Kumar & Gunaruwan, Lalithasiri & Kumarage, Amal & Sadiq, Rehan & Hewage, Kasun, 2021. "Improving the capital deployment efficiency: An infrastructure investment planning process in transportation project," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    14. Locatelli, Giorgio & Invernizzi, Diletta Colette & Brookes, Naomi J., 2017. "Project characteristics and performance in Europe: An empirical analysis for large transport infrastructure projects," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 108-122.
    15. Miranda Sarmento, J.J., 2014. "Public private partnerships," Other publications TiSEM c7d4c978-234c-4f88-83ed-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    16. Petr Halámek & Radka Matuszková & Michal Radimský, 2021. "Modernisation of Regional Roads Evaluated Using Ex-Post CBA," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-20, February.

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