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Debunking fake news in a post-truth era: The plausible untruths of cost underestimation in transport infrastructure projects

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  • Love, Peter E.D.
  • Ahiaga-Dagbui, Dominic D.

Abstract

The methodology, analysis, and the unfounded conclusions presented in the paper “Underestimating costs in public works projects: error or lie?” by Flyvbjerg, Holm, and Buhl (2002), published in the Journal of the American Planning Association are critically questioned. Flyvbjerg, Holm, and Buhl attribute the cause of cost underestimation in transport infrastructure projects to delusion (optimism bias) and deception (strategic misrepresentation). The bifurcation of the cost underestimation problem into error or lie presents a false dichotomy – an either/or choice that is invalid when juxtaposed with the real-world nature of procuring large infrastructure assets. Put simply, the conclusions presented by Flyvbjerg, Holm, and Buhl are akin to being fake news. Unfortunately, the persistent reverberation of these convenient narratives and factoids in both academia and media has led to these explanations becoming an accepted norm. In this paper, the claims made by Flyvbjerg, Holm, and Buhl are debunked. A call is made for policy-makers to embrace and utilize evidence-based research so that informed decisions about capital cost estimates and potential risks can be better ascertained at the front-end of major transport infrastructure projects.

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  • Love, Peter E.D. & Ahiaga-Dagbui, Dominic D., 2018. "Debunking fake news in a post-truth era: The plausible untruths of cost underestimation in transport infrastructure projects," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 357-368.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:113:y:2018:i:c:p:357-368
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2018.04.019
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Li Liu & Zigrid Napier, 2010. "The accuracy of risk-based cost estimation for water infrastructure projects: preliminary evidence from Australian projects," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1), pages 89-100.
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    8. Love, Peter E.D. & Ahiaga-Dagbui, Dominic D. & Irani, Zahir, 2016. "Cost overruns in transportation infrastructure projects: Sowing the seeds for a probabilistic theory of causation," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 184-194.
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    11. Bent Flyvbjerg, 2013. "How Planners Deal with Uncomfortable Knowledge: The Dubious Ethics of the American Planning Association," Papers 1303.7405, arXiv.org.
    12. Love, Peter E.D. & Zhou, Jingyang & Edwards, David J. & Irani, Zahir & Sing, Chun-Pong, 2017. "Off the rails: The cost performance of infrastructure rail projects," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 14-29.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bartlomiej Rokicki, 2022. "Cost Underruns in Major Road Transport Infrastructure Projects—The Surprising Experience of Poland," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-18, November.
    2. Bartlomiej Rokicki & Krzysztof Ostaszewski, 2022. "Actuarial Credibility Approach in Adjusting Initial Cost Estimates of Transport Infrastructure Projects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-12, October.
    3. Flyvbjerg, Bent & Ansar, Atif & Budzier, Alexander & Buhl, Søren & Cantarelli, Chantal & Garbuio, Massimo & Glenting, Carsten & Holm, Mette Skamris & Lovallo, Dan & Molin, Eric & Rønnest, Arne & Stewa, 2019. "On de-bunking “Fake News” in the post-truth era: How to reduce statistical error in research," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 409-411.
    4. Love, Peter E.D. & Ika, Lavagnon A. & Ahiaga-Dagbui, Dominic D., 2019. "On de-bunking ‘fake news’ in a post truth era: Why does the Planning Fallacy explanation for cost overruns fall short?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 397-408.
    5. Flyvbjerg, Bent & Ansar, Atif & Budzier, Alexander & Buhl, Søren & Cantarelli, Chantal & Garbuio, Massimo & Glenting, Carsten & Holm, Mette Skamris & Lovallo, Dan & Lunn, Daniel & Molin, Eric & Rønnes, 2018. "Five things you should know about cost overrun," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 174-190.
    6. Sinclair, Andrew, 2023. "Assessing the benefits of high-speed broadband: Lessons from Australia's National Broadband Network (NBN)," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    7. Love, Peter E.D. & Sing, Michael C.P. & Ika, Lavagnon A. & Newton, Sidney, 2019. "The cost performance of transportation projects: The fallacy of the Planning Fallacy account," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 1-20.
    8. Chapman, Paul & Quang, Cuong, 2021. "Major Project Risk Management: Reconciling Complexity during Delivery with the Inside View in Planning," SocArXiv j9sw8, Center for Open Science.
    9. Alan Walsh & Peter Walker, 2021. "Re-Evaluating Megaproject Cost Overruns: Putting Changes Into Perspective," International Journal of Innovation and Economic Development, Inovatus Services Ltd., vol. 6(6), pages 19-29, February.
    10. Delei Yang & Jun Zhu & Qingbin Cui & Qinghua He & Xian Zheng, 2021. "The Diffusion Mechanism of Megaproject Citizenship Behavior: The Role of Institutional Isomorphism," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-19, July.
    11. Love, Peter E.D. & Ika, Lavagnon & Matthews, Jane & Fang, Weili, 2021. "Shared leadership, value and risks in large scale transport projects: Re-calibrating procurement policy for post COVID-19," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    12. Tobias Onshuus Malvik & Agnar Johansen & Olav Torp & Nils O. E. Olsson, 2021. "Evaluation of Target Value Delivery and Opportunity Management as Complementary Practices," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-19, July.
    13. Andrius Montrimas & Jurgita Bruneckienė & Vaidas Gaidelys, 2021. "Beyond the Socio-Economic Impact of Transport Megaprojects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-29, July.
    14. Love, Peter E.D. & Ika, Lavagnon A., 2021. "The ‘context’ of transport project cost performance: Insights from contract award to final construction costs," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).

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