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Debunking fake news in a post-truth era: The plausible untruths of cost underestimation in transport infrastructure projects

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  • Love, Peter E.D.
  • Ahiaga-Dagbui, Dominic D.

Abstract

The methodology, analysis, and the unfounded conclusions presented in the paper “Underestimating costs in public works projects: error or lie?” by Flyvbjerg, Holm, and Buhl (2002), published in the Journal of the American Planning Association are critically questioned. Flyvbjerg, Holm, and Buhl attribute the cause of cost underestimation in transport infrastructure projects to delusion (optimism bias) and deception (strategic misrepresentation). The bifurcation of the cost underestimation problem into error or lie presents a false dichotomy – an either/or choice that is invalid when juxtaposed with the real-world nature of procuring large infrastructure assets. Put simply, the conclusions presented by Flyvbjerg, Holm, and Buhl are akin to being fake news. Unfortunately, the persistent reverberation of these convenient narratives and factoids in both academia and media has led to these explanations becoming an accepted norm. In this paper, the claims made by Flyvbjerg, Holm, and Buhl are debunked. A call is made for policy-makers to embrace and utilize evidence-based research so that informed decisions about capital cost estimates and potential risks can be better ascertained at the front-end of major transport infrastructure projects.

Suggested Citation

  • Love, Peter E.D. & Ahiaga-Dagbui, Dominic D., 2018. "Debunking fake news in a post-truth era: The plausible untruths of cost underestimation in transport infrastructure projects," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 357-368.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:113:y:2018:i:c:p:357-368
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2018.04.019
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bent Flyvbjerg, 2013. "How Planners Deal with Uncomfortable Knowledge: The Dubious Ethics of the American Planning Association," Papers 1303.7405, arXiv.org.
    2. Cantarelli, C.C. & Molin, E.J.E. & van Wee, B. & Flyvbjerg, B., 2012. "Characteristics of cost overruns for Dutch transport infrastructure projects and the importance of the decision to build and project phases," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 49-56.
    3. Cantarelli, C.C. & Flyvbjerg, B. & Buhl, S.L., 2012. "Geographical variation in project cost performance: the Netherlands versus worldwide," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 324-331.
    4. Love, Peter E.D. & Ahiaga-Dagbui, Dominic D. & Irani, Zahir, 2016. "Cost overruns in transportation infrastructure projects: Sowing the seeds for a probabilistic theory of causation," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 184-194.
    5. Li Liu & Zigrid Napier, 2010. "The accuracy of risk-based cost estimation for water infrastructure projects: preliminary evidence from Australian projects," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1), pages 89-100.
    6. Bent Flyvbjerg, 2009. "Survival of the unfittest: why the worst infrastructure gets built--and what we can do about it," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 25(3), pages 344-367, Autumn.
    7. Bent Flyvbjerg & Mette K. Skamris holm & Søren L. Buhl, 2003. "How common and how large are cost overruns in transport infrastructure projects?," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 71-88, January.
    8. Bent Flyvbjerg, 2007. "Policy and Planning for Large-Infrastructure Projects: Problems, Causes, Cures," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 34(4), pages 578-597, August.
    9. Bent Flyvbjerg, 2013. "Quality Control and Due Diligence in Project Management: Getting Decisions Right by Taking the Outside View," Papers 1302.2544, arXiv.org.
    10. Love, Peter E.D. & Zhou, Jingyang & Edwards, David J. & Irani, Zahir & Sing, Chun-Pong, 2017. "Off the rails: The cost performance of infrastructure rail projects," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 14-29.
    11. Odeck, James, 2004. "Cost overruns in road construction--what are their sizes and determinants?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 43-53, January.
    12. Dominic D. Ahiaga-Dagbui & Simon D. Smith, 2014. "Dealing with construction cost overruns using data mining," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(7-8), pages 682-694, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bartlomiej Rokicki, 2022. "Cost Underruns in Major Road Transport Infrastructure Projects—The Surprising Experience of Poland," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-18, November.
    2. Love, Peter E.D. & Sing, Michael C.P. & Ika, Lavagnon A. & Newton, Sidney, 2019. "The cost performance of transportation projects: The fallacy of the Planning Fallacy account," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 1-20.
    3. Chapman, Paul & Quang, Cuong, 2021. "Major Project Risk Management: Reconciling Complexity during Delivery with the Inside View in Planning," SocArXiv j9sw8, Center for Open Science.
    4. Bartlomiej Rokicki & Krzysztof Ostaszewski, 2022. "Actuarial Credibility Approach in Adjusting Initial Cost Estimates of Transport Infrastructure Projects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-12, October.
    5. Alan Walsh & Peter Walker, 2021. "Re-Evaluating Megaproject Cost Overruns: Putting Changes Into Perspective," International Journal of Innovation and Economic Development, Inovatus Services Ltd., vol. 6(6), pages 19-29, February.
    6. Delei Yang & Jun Zhu & Qingbin Cui & Qinghua He & Xian Zheng, 2021. "The Diffusion Mechanism of Megaproject Citizenship Behavior: The Role of Institutional Isomorphism," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-19, July.
    7. Flyvbjerg, Bent & Ansar, Atif & Budzier, Alexander & Buhl, Søren & Cantarelli, Chantal & Garbuio, Massimo & Glenting, Carsten & Holm, Mette Skamris & Lovallo, Dan & Molin, Eric & Rønnest, Arne & Stewa, 2019. "On de-bunking “Fake News” in the post-truth era: How to reduce statistical error in research," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 409-411.
    8. Love, Peter E.D. & Ika, Lavagnon A. & Ahiaga-Dagbui, Dominic D., 2019. "On de-bunking ‘fake news’ in a post truth era: Why does the Planning Fallacy explanation for cost overruns fall short?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 397-408.
    9. Flyvbjerg, Bent & Ansar, Atif & Budzier, Alexander & Buhl, Søren & Cantarelli, Chantal & Garbuio, Massimo & Glenting, Carsten & Holm, Mette Skamris & Lovallo, Dan & Lunn, Daniel & Molin, Eric & Rønnes, 2018. "Five things you should know about cost overrun," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 174-190.
    10. Love, Peter E.D. & Ika, Lavagnon & Matthews, Jane & Fang, Weili, 2021. "Shared leadership, value and risks in large scale transport projects: Re-calibrating procurement policy for post COVID-19," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    11. Tobias Onshuus Malvik & Agnar Johansen & Olav Torp & Nils O. E. Olsson, 2021. "Evaluation of Target Value Delivery and Opportunity Management as Complementary Practices," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-19, July.
    12. Sinclair, Andrew, 2023. "Assessing the benefits of high-speed broadband: Lessons from Australia's National Broadband Network (NBN)," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    13. Andrius Montrimas & Jurgita Bruneckienė & Vaidas Gaidelys, 2021. "Beyond the Socio-Economic Impact of Transport Megaprojects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-29, July.
    14. Love, Peter E.D. & Ika, Lavagnon A., 2021. "The ‘context’ of transport project cost performance: Insights from contract award to final construction costs," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).

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