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Cost Overrun at the Norwegian Continental Shelf: The Element of Surprise

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  • Atle Oglend
  • Petter Osmundsen
  • Sindre Lorentzen

Abstract

We examine drivers of cost overruns in Norwegian development projects in the oil and gas sector. The multivariate longitudinal econometric analysis employs a unique and detailed dataset consisting of 80 different projects between 2000 and 2015. Among the significant results, we find that the unexpected change in economic activity has a positive effect on the overruns; there is a considerable positive momentum in the transitional cost overruns; more experienced operators tend to incur less overruns; finally, that the size of the investment of the projects has a positive impact on the overruns. Further, we find evidence that the current economic activity matters to an extent, but it is the unexpected change in activity that is the pivotal factor.

Suggested Citation

  • Atle Oglend & Petter Osmundsen & Sindre Lorentzen, 2016. "Cost Overrun at the Norwegian Continental Shelf: The Element of Surprise," CESifo Working Paper Series 5886, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_5886
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    cost overrun; cost estimation; estimation error;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models

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