IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/trapol/v79y2019icp21-36.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On the magnitude of cost overruns throughout the project life-cycle: An assessment for the Italian transport infrastructure projects

Author

Listed:
  • Cavalieri, Marina
  • Cristaudo, Rossana
  • Guccio, Calogero

Abstract

The cost performance of infrastructure projects is a serious problem worldwide. This paper aims to analyse the generating process of cost overruns along the various phases of the project life-cycle. To this purpose, we employ a large dataset of Italian transport infrastructure projects for roads, started and completed during the period 2000–2013. Applying the same methodology used by the construction management research, we breakdown the various phases of the project life-cycle as well as the related cost items (estimated or actual) to analyse empirically the role of each phase in the overall evolution of cost overruns. Specifically, we pay particular attention to the costs for the physical execution of the work, distinguishing them from all other costs. The results show that Italian public infrastructure works suffer from significant cost overruns in the execution phase. However, the Italian contracting authorities seem to systematically overestimate the size of the final costs for the physical realization of the work. This risk aversion attitude is more relevant when considering financial coverage (rather than budget) and it is likely to leave room for opportunistic behaviours in the execution phase. In terms of policy implications, our results suggest the adoption of more stringent (and objective) criteria to assess the project budget and to provide its financial coverage.

Suggested Citation

  • Cavalieri, Marina & Cristaudo, Rossana & Guccio, Calogero, 2019. "On the magnitude of cost overruns throughout the project life-cycle: An assessment for the Italian transport infrastructure projects," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 21-36.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:79:y:2019:i:c:p:21-36
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2019.04.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X18303342
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tranpol.2019.04.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Massimo Finocchiaro Castro & Calogero Guccio & Ilde Rizzo, 2014. "An assessment of the waste effects of corruption on infrastructure provision," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 21(4), pages 813-843, August.
    2. Decarolis, Francesco & Palumbo, Giuliana, 2015. "Renegotiation of public contracts: An empirical analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 77-81.
    3. Bent Flyvbjerg & Mette K. Skamris holm & Søren L. Buhl, 2003. "How common and how large are cost overruns in transport infrastructure projects?," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 71-88, January.
    4. Cantarelli, C.C. & van Wee, B. & Molin, E.J.E. & Flyvbjerg, B., 2012. "Different cost performance: different determinants?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 88-95.
    5. Decio Coviello & Stefano Gagliarducci, 2017. "Tenure in Office and Public Procurement," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 59-105, August.
    6. Odeck, James, 2004. "Cost overruns in road construction--what are their sizes and determinants?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 43-53, January.
    7. Cavalieri, Marina & Guccio, Calogero & Rizzo, Ilde, 2017. "On the role of environmental corruption in healthcare infrastructures: An empirical assessment for Italy using DEA with truncated regression approach," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(5), pages 515-524.
    8. Decarolis, Francesco & Giorgiantonio, Cristina, 2015. "Local public procurement regulations: The case of Italy," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 209-226.
    9. Cantarelli, C.C. & Molin, E.J.E. & van Wee, B. & Flyvbjerg, B., 2012. "Characteristics of cost overruns for Dutch transport infrastructure projects and the importance of the decision to build and project phases," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 49-56.
    10. Steven Tadelis, 2009. "Auctions Versus Negotiations in Procurement: An Empirical Analysis," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 372-399, October.
    11. Guccio, Calogero & Pignataro, Giacomo & Rizzo, Ilde, 2014. "Do local governments do it better? Analysis of time performance in the execution of public works," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 237-252.
    12. C. Guccio & G. Pignataro & I. Rizzo, 2012. "Determinants of adaptation costs in procurement: an empirical estimation on Italian public works contracts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(15), pages 1891-1909, May.
    13. Cantarelli, C.C. & Flyvbjerg, B. & Buhl, S.L., 2012. "Geographical variation in project cost performance: the Netherlands versus worldwide," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 324-331.
    14. Daniel Kahneman & Dan Lovallo, 1993. "Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(1), pages 17-31, January.
    15. Verweij, Stefan & van Meerkerk, Ingmar & Korthagen, Iris A., 2015. "Reasons for contract changes in implementing Dutch transportation infrastructure projects: An empirical exploration," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 195-202.
    16. Flyvbjerg, Bent & Ansar, Atif & Budzier, Alexander & Buhl, Søren & Cantarelli, Chantal & Garbuio, Massimo & Glenting, Carsten & Holm, Mette Skamris & Lovallo, Dan & Lunn, Daniel & Molin, Eric & Rønnes, 2018. "Five things you should know about cost overrun," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 174-190.
    17. Chong, Uven & Hopkins, Omar, 2016. "An international experience on the evolution of road costs during the project life cycle," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 60-66.
    18. Marina Cavalieri & Rossana Cristaudo & Livio Ferrante & Calogero Guccio, 2019. "Does the Project Design Matter for the Performance of Infrastructure Execution? An Assessment for Italy," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 5(1), pages 39-77, March.
    19. Odeck, James, 2014. "Do reforms reduce the magnitudes of cost overruns in road projects? Statistical evidence from Norway," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 68-79.
    20. Morten Welde & James Odeck, 2017. "Cost escalations in the front-end of projects – empirical evidence from Norwegian road projects," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(5), pages 612-630, September.
    21. Francesco Decarolis & Cristina Giorgiantonio, 2013. "Favouritism and Inefficiency in Procurement: Evidence from Public Works in Italy," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, issue 2, pages 161-189, April-Jun.
    22. Calogero Guccio & Giacomo Pignataro & Ilde Rizzo, 2009. "Selezione dei fornitori e incentivi alla rinegoziazione in contratti incompleti: rilevanza empirica nel settore dei lavori pubblici," Rivista italiana degli economisti, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 311-344.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Finocchiaro Castro, Massimo & Guccio, Calogero & Rizzo, Ilde, 2023. "How "one-size-fits-all" public works contract does it better? An assessment of infrastructure provision in Italy," EconStor Preprints 270729, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    2. Zhenhan Ding & Xun Liu & Zhiyuan Xue & Xiaobo Li, 2023. "Expert Opinion on the Key Influencing Factors of Cost Control for Water Engineering Contractors," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-14, April.
    3. Molinari, Laura & Haezendonck, Elvira & Mabillard, Vincent, 2023. "Cost overruns of Belgian transport infrastructure projects: Analyzing variations over three land transport modes and two project phases," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 167-179.
    4. Wu, Yunna & Yong, Xingkai & Tao, Yao & Zhou, Jianli & He, Jiaming & Chen, Wenjun & Yang, Yingying, 2023. "Investment monitoring key points identification model of big science research infrastructures -- Fuzzy BWM-entropy-PROMETHEE Ⅱ method," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    5. Finocchiaro Castro, Massimo & Guccio, Calogero & Rizzo, Ilde, 2023. "“One-size-fits-all” public works contract does it better? An assessment of infrastructure provision in Italy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(5), pages 994-1014.
    6. Abeysekara, Baudhi & Perera, Piyaruwan & Chhipi Shrestha, Gyan Kumar & Gunaruwan, Lalithasiri & Kumarage, Amal & Sadiq, Rehan & Hewage, Kasun, 2021. "Improving the capital deployment efficiency: An infrastructure investment planning process in transportation project," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    7. Eliasson, Jonas, 2024. "Cost overruns of infrastructure projects – distributions, causes and remedies," MPRA Paper 122862, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Love, Peter E.D. & Ika, Lavagnon A. & Matthews, Jane & Li, Xinjian & Fang, Weili, 2021. "A procurement policy-making pathway to future-proof large-scale transport infrastructure assets," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    9. Jarosław Górecki & Manuel Díaz-Madroñero, 2020. "Who Risks and Wins?—Simulated Cost Variance in Sustainable Construction Projects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-31, April.
    10. Bekius, Femke & de Kwaasteniet, Vincent & Teisman, Geert, 2024. "Durability of decisions explained by actor-strategies in games: A multiple case study analysis," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 222-236.
    11. Love, Peter E.D. & Ika, Lavagnon A., 2021. "The ‘context’ of transport project cost performance: Insights from contract award to final construction costs," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marina Cavalieri & Rossana Cristaudo & Livio Ferrante & Calogero Guccio, 2019. "Does the Project Design Matter for the Performance of Infrastructure Execution? An Assessment for Italy," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 5(1), pages 39-77, March.
    2. Chong, Uven & Hopkins, Omar, 2016. "An international experience on the evolution of road costs during the project life cycle," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 60-66.
    3. Finocchiaro Castro, Massimo & Guccio, Calogero, 2021. "Does greater discretion improve the performance in the execution of public works? Evidence from the reform of discretionary thresholds in Italy," EconStor Preprints 247648, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    4. Abeysekara, Baudhi & Perera, Piyaruwan & Chhipi Shrestha, Gyan Kumar & Gunaruwan, Lalithasiri & Kumarage, Amal & Sadiq, Rehan & Hewage, Kasun, 2021. "Improving the capital deployment efficiency: An infrastructure investment planning process in transportation project," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    5. Marina Cavalieri & Calogero Guccio & Domenico Lisi & Ilde Rizzo, 2020. "Does Institutional Quality Matter for Infrastructure Provision? A Non-parametric Analysis for Italian Municipalities," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 6(3), pages 521-562, November.
    6. Ravenda, Diego & Giuranno, Michele G. & Valencia-Silva, Maika M. & Argiles-Bosch, Josep M. & García-Blandón, Josep, 2020. "The effects of mafia infiltration on public procurement performance," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    7. Miranda Sarmento, J.J., 2014. "Public private partnerships," Other publications TiSEM c7d4c978-234c-4f88-83ed-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    8. Guccio, Calogero & Pignataro, Giacomo & Rizzo, Ilde, 2014. "Do local governments do it better? Analysis of time performance in the execution of public works," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 237-252.
    9. Miranda Sarmento, J.J. & Renneboog, Luc, 2017. "Cost overruns in public sector investment projects," Other publications TiSEM 51799a3e-4c78-4dbd-b330-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    10. Dejan Makovšek & Marian Moszoro, 2018. "Risk pricing inefficiency in public–private partnerships," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(3), pages 298-321, May.
    11. Chiappinelli, Olga, 2020. "Decentralization and Public Procurement Performance: New Evidence from Italy," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 58(2), pages 856-880.
    12. Cavalieri, Marina & Guccio, Calogero & Rizzo, Ilde, 2017. "On the role of environmental corruption in healthcare infrastructures: An empirical assessment for Italy using DEA with truncated regression approach," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(5), pages 515-524.
    13. Love, Peter E.D. & Sing, Michael C.P. & Ika, Lavagnon A. & Newton, Sidney, 2019. "The cost performance of transportation projects: The fallacy of the Planning Fallacy account," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 1-20.
    14. Giuseppe F Gori & Patrizia Lattarulo & Marco Mariani, 2017. "Understanding the procurement performance of local governments: A duration analysis of public works," Environment and Planning C, , vol. 35(5), pages 809-827, August.
    15. Finocchiaro Castro, Massimo & Guccio, Calogero & Rizzo, Ilde, 2023. "“One-size-fits-all” public works contract does it better? An assessment of infrastructure provision in Italy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(5), pages 994-1014.
    16. Calogero Guccio & Domenico Lisi & Ilde Rizzo, 2019. "When the purchasing officer looks the other way: on the waste effects of debauched local environment in public works execution," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 205-236, September.
    17. Love, Peter E.D. & Zhou, Jingyang & Edwards, David J. & Irani, Zahir & Sing, Chun-Pong, 2017. "Off the rails: The cost performance of infrastructure rail projects," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 14-29.
    18. Massimo Finocchiaro Castro & Calogero Guccio & Giacomo Pignataro & Ilde Rizzo, 2018. "Is competition able to counteract the inefficiency of corruption? The case of Italian public works," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 45(1), pages 55-84, March.
    19. Flyvbjerg, Bent & Ansar, Atif & Budzier, Alexander & Buhl, Søren & Cantarelli, Chantal & Garbuio, Massimo & Glenting, Carsten & Holm, Mette Skamris & Lovallo, Dan & Lunn, Daniel & Molin, Eric & Rønnes, 2018. "Five things you should know about cost overrun," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 174-190.
    20. Love, Peter E.D. & Ahiaga-Dagbui, Dominic D. & Irani, Zahir, 2016. "Cost overruns in transportation infrastructure projects: Sowing the seeds for a probabilistic theory of causation," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 184-194.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cost overruns; Project life-cycle; Transport infrastructure; Roads; Italy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H4 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods
    • R4 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:79:y:2019:i:c:p:21-36. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/30473/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.