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The Cyclical Sensitivity in Estimates of Potential Output

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Arai, Natsuki, 2023. "The FOMC’s new individual economic projections and macroeconomic theories," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
  2. Garga, Vaishali & Singh, Sanjay R., 2021. "Output hysteresis and optimal monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 871-886.
  3. Müller, Gernot & Wolf, Martin & Hettig, Thomas, 2019. "Exchange Rate Undershooting: Evidence and Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 13597, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Elfsbacka Schmöller, Michaela & Spitzer, Martin, 2022. "Lower for longer under endogenous technology growth," Working Paper Series 2714, European Central Bank.
  5. Bhattarai, Saroj & Schwartzman, Felipe & Yang, Choongryul, 2021. "Local scars of the US housing crisis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 40-57.
  6. Bofinger, Peter & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schnabel, Isabel & Wieland, Volker, 2018. "Vor wichtigen wirtschaftspolitischen Weichenstellungen. Jahresgutachten 2018/19 [Setting the Right Course for Economic Policy. Annual Report 2018/19]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201819.
  7. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2019_021 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Augustus J. Panton, 2020. "Climate hysteresis and monetary policy," CAMA Working Papers 2020-76, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  9. Aleksandr Arsenev & Philipp Heimberger & Bernhard Schütz, 2024. "Das konjunkturelle Verhalten der Staatsausgaben für Gesundheit und Soziales in Österreich und Deutschland: Wie robust ist die OECD-Methodik?," wiiw Research Reports in German language 25, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
  10. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Mauricio Ulate, 2019. "Is Inflation Just Around the Corner? The Phillips Curve and Global Inflationary Pressures," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 109, pages 465-469, May.
  11. Drago Bergholt & Francesco Furlanetto & Etienne Vaccaro-Grange, 2023. "Did monetary policy kill the Phillips Curve? Some simple arithmetics," Working Paper 2023/2, Norges Bank.
  12. Hasenzagl, Thomas & Pellegrino, Filippo & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2022. "Monitoring the Economy in Real Time: Trends and Gaps in Real Activity and Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 17111, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Hoffmann, Timo, 2023. "Vorschläge zur Modifikation der Potenzialschätzung der Bundesregierung im Vergleich," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 45, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  14. Francesco Furlanetto & Kåre Hagelund & Frank Hansen & Ørjan Robstad, 2020. "Norges Bank Output Gap Estimates: Forecasting Properties, Reliability and Cyclical Sensitivity," Working Paper 2020/7, Norges Bank.
  15. Breuer Sebastian & Elstner Steffen, 2020. "Germany’s Growth Prospects against the Backdrop of Demographic Change," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 240(5), pages 565-605, October.
  16. N. Cordemans & J. Wauters, 2018. "Are inflation and economic activity out of sync in the euro area?," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 79-96, June.
  17. Schüler, Yves S. & Hiebert, Paul P. & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2020. "Financial cycles: Characterisation and real-time measurement," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
  18. Francesco Simone Lucidi, 2023. "The misalignment of fiscal multipliers in Italian regions," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(10), pages 2073-2086, October.
  19. Canova, Fabio, 2020. "FAQ: How do I measure the Output gap?," CEPR Discussion Papers 14943, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5a3rl1um0d9rdbe3itnk6f8m89 is not listed on IDEAS
  21. Thomas Hasenzagl & Filippo Pellegrino & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2022. "A Model of the Fed's View on Inflation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 686-704, October.
  22. Benchimol, Jonathan & Bounader, Lahcen, 2023. "Optimal monetary policy under bounded rationality," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
  23. Pierre Aldama & Jérôme Creel, 2020. "Asymmetric Macroeconomic Stabilization And Fiscal Consolidation In The Oecd And The Euro Area," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03403071, HAL.
  24. Croushore, Dean & van Norden, Simon, 2019. "Fiscal Surprises at the FOMC," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1583-1595.
  25. Jordi Galí, 2015. "Insider-outsider labor markets, hysteresis and monetary policy," Economics Working Papers 1506, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 2020.
  26. Mr. Shekhar Aiyar & Simon Voigts, 2019. "The Negative Mean Output Gap," IMF Working Papers 2019/183, International Monetary Fund.
  27. Schmöller, Michaela & Spitzer, Martin, 2019. "Endogenous TFP, business cycle persistence and the productivity slowdown," Research Discussion Papers 21/2019, Bank of Finland.
  28. Regis Barnichon & Geert Mesters, 2020. "Identifying Modern Macro Equations with Old Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(4), pages 2255-2298.
  29. Larch, Martin & Cugnasca, Alessandro & Kumps, Diederik & Orseau, Eloïse, 2019. "Fiscal policy and the assessment of output gaps in real time: An exercise in risk management," ZEW Discussion Papers 19-013, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
  30. Panovska, Irina & Ramamurthy, Srikanth, 2022. "Decomposing the output gap with inflation learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
  31. Chalmovianský, Jakub & Němec, Daniel, 2022. "Assessing uncertainty of output gap estimates: Evidence from Visegrad countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
  32. Francesco Furlanetto & Ørjan Robstad & Pål Ulvedal & Antoine Lepetit, 2020. "Estimating hysteresis effects," Working Paper 2020/13, Norges Bank.
  33. Elfsbacka Schmöller, Michaela & Spitzer, Martin, 2022. "Lower for longer under endogenous technology growth," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2022, Bank of Finland.
  34. Pablo Burriel & Víctor González-Díez & Jorge Martínez-Pagés & Enrique Moral-Benito, 2021. "Real-time analysis of the revisions to the structural position of public finances," Occasional Papers 2108, Banco de España.
  35. Danilo Leiva-Leon & Jaime Martinez-Martin & Eva Ortega, 2022. "Exchange Rate Shocks and Inflation Co-movement in the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(1), pages 239-275, March.
  36. Mariarosaria Comunale, 2019. "An investigation of the exchange rate pass-through in the Baltic states," CAMA Working Papers 2019-60, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  37. Dovern, Jonas & Zuber, Christopher, 2020. "How economic crises damage potential output – Evidence from the Great Recession," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
  38. Oscar Jorda & Alan Taylor & Sanjay Singh, 2019. "The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy," 2019 Meeting Papers 1307, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  39. Jing Lian Suah, 2024. "The "plucking" model of the unemployment rate floor: Corss-country estimates and empirics," BIS Working Papers 1159, Bank for International Settlements.
  40. M. Deroose & A. Rannenberg & J. Wauters, 2019. "Separating the trend from the cycle : The debate on euro area potential output and implications for monetary policy," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue ii, pages 7-28, September.
  41. Kátay Gábor & Kerdelhué Lisa & Lequien Matthieu, 2020. "Semi-Structural VAR and Unobserved Components Models to Estimate Finance-Neutral Output Gap," Working papers 791, Banque de France.
  42. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6gjj4t61tm90aauv9v241g1u29 is not listed on IDEAS
  43. Ginters Buss & Patrick Gruning & Olegs Tkacevs, 2021. "Choosing the European Fiscal Rule," Working Papers 2021/03, Latvijas Banka.
  44. James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2020. "Estimating and accounting for the output gap with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(1), pages 1-18, January.
  45. Antonio Fatás, 2019. "Fiscal Policy, Potential Output, and the Shifting Goalposts," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(3), pages 684-702, September.
  46. Peter Flaschel & Sigrid Luchtenberg & Hagen Kramer & Christian Proano & Mark Setterfield, 2021. "Contemporary Macroeconomic Outcomes: A Tragedy in Three Acts," Working Papers 2105, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
  47. Mr. Alvar Kangur & Koralai Kirabaeva & Jean-Marc Natal & Simon Voigts, 2019. "How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe?," IMF Working Papers 2019/200, International Monetary Fund.
  48. Christophe Blot & Paul Hubert, 2018. "Monetary policy with transitory vs. permanently low growth," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03404318, HAL.
  49. Canova, Fabio, 2020. "FAQ: How do I extract the output gap?," Working Paper Series 386, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  50. Saeed Zaman, 2021. "A Unified Framework to Estimate Macroeconomic Stars," Working Papers 21-23R2, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 31 May 2024.
  51. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5a3rl1um0d9rdbe3itnk6f8m89 is not listed on IDEAS
  52. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2022_006 is not listed on IDEAS
  53. Fatás, Antonio & Singh, Sanjay R., 2024. "Supply or demand? Policy makers’ confusion in the presence of hysteresis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
  54. Kabundi, Alain & De Simone, Francisco Nadal, 2022. "Euro area banking and monetary policy shocks in the QE era," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
  55. Schmöller, Michaela & Spitzer, Martin, 2019. "Endogenous TFP, business cycle persistence and the productivity slowdown," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 21/2019, Bank of Finland.
  56. Omar Licandro & Francesca Vinci, 2021. "Potential output, the Taylor Rule and the Fed," Discussion Papers 2021/03, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
  57. Kurt Graden Lunsford, 2020. "Recessions and the Trend in the US Unemployment Rate," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2021(01), pages 1-8, February.
  58. Alloza, Mario & Sanz, Carlos, 2019. "Dynamic Effects of Persistent Shocks," UC3M Working papers. Economics 29187, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
  59. Saroj Bhattarai & Choongryul Yang & Felipe Schwartzman, 2019. "The Persistent Employment E ffects of the 2006-09 U.S. Housing Wealth Collapse," 2019 Meeting Papers 671, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  60. Josefine Quast & Maik H. Wolters, 2022. "Reliable Real-Time Output Gap Estimates Based on a Modified Hamilton Filter," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 152-168, January.
  61. Marek Jarociński & Michele Lenza, 2018. "An Inflation‐Predicting Measure of the Output Gap in the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(6), pages 1189-1224, September.
  62. Iana Paliova, 2021. "Bulgaria’s Fiscal Sustainability and Policy Response to the COVID-19 Outbreak," Global Economic Observer, "Nicolae Titulescu" University of Bucharest, Faculty of Economic Sciences;Institute for World Economy of the Romanian Academy, vol. 9(1), pages 31-38, June.
  63. Weiske, Sebastian, 2018. "Indicator-based estimates of the output gap in the euro area," Working Papers 12/2018, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
  64. Benchimol, Jonathan & Fourçans, André, 2019. "Central bank losses and monetary policy rules: A DSGE investigation," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 289-303.
  65. Francesca Vinci & Omar Licandro, 2020. "Switching-track after the Great Recession," Discussion Papers 2020/02, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
  66. Giovanna Ciaffi & Matteo Deleidi & Michele Capriati, 2024. "Government spending, multipliers, and public debt sustainability: an empirical assessment for OECD countries," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 41(2), pages 521-542, July.
  67. Elfsbacka Schmöller, Michaela & Spitzer, Martin, 2020. "Endogenous TFP, business cycle persistence and the productivity slowdown in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2401, European Central Bank.
  68. Weiske, Sebastian, 2019. "Indicator-based estimates of the output gap in the euro area," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203604, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  69. Richard K. Crump & Nikolay Gospodinov & Hunter Wieman, 2023. "Sparse Trend Estimation," Staff Reports 1049, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  70. Giovanna Ciaffi & Matteo Deleidi & Mariana Mazzucato, 2024. "Measuring the macroeconomic responses to public investment in innovation: evidence from OECD countries," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 33(2), pages 363-382.
  71. Burger, John D. & Warnock, Francis E. & Warnock, Veronica Cacdac, 2022. "A natural level of capital flows," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 1-16.
  72. Ortega, Eva & Osbat, Chiara, 2020. "Exchange rate pass-through in the euro area and EU countries," Occasional Paper Series 241, European Central Bank.
  73. Philipp Heimberger, 2020. "Potential Output, EU Fiscal Surveillance and the COVID-19 Shock," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 55(3), pages 167-174, May.
  74. Sébastien Charles & Thomas Dallery & Jonathan Marie, 2018. "Some Thoughts and Proposals Concerning the Concept of Output Gap [Réflexions et suggestions autour du concept d’output gap]," Post-Print hal-02335667, HAL.
  75. Ms. Burcu Hacibedel & Pierre Mandon & Ms. Priscilla S Muthoora & Nathalie Pouokam, 2019. "Inequality in Good and Bad Times: A Cross-Country Approach," IMF Working Papers 2019/020, International Monetary Fund.
  76. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Mauricio Ulate, 2017. "Secular Stagnation: Policy Options and the Cyclical Sensitivity in Estimates of Potential Output," Working Papers 01/2017, National Bank of Ukraine.
  77. Andrew Glover & Jose Mustre-del-Rio & Emily Pollard, 2021. "KC Fed LMCI Suggests Recent Inflation Is Not Due to the Tight Labor Market," Economic Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue October 2, pages 1-4, October.
  78. Jonas Dovern & Christopher Zuber, 2020. "Recessions and Potential Output: Disentangling Measurement Errors, Supply Shocks, and Hysteresis Effects," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 122(4), pages 1431-1466, October.
  79. Daniel Gros & Alessandro Liscai & Farzaneh Shamsfakhr, 2022. "Planned Fiscal Consolidation and Under-Estimated Multipliers: Revisiting the Evidence and Relevance for the Euro Area," EconPol Policy Reports 35, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  80. Remzi Baris Tercioglu, 2020. "A sectoral approach to measuring output gap: Evidence from 20 US sectors over 1948-2019," Working Papers 2012, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2021.
  81. Elfsbacka Schmöller, Michaela & Spitzer, Martin, 2022. "Lower for longer under endogenous technology growth," Research Discussion Papers 6/2022, Bank of Finland.
  82. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, 2021. "Debt-Secular Economic Changes and Bond Yields," Staff Working Papers 21-14, Bank of Canada.
  83. Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schnabel, Isabel & Truger, Achim & Wieland, Volker, 2019. "Den Strukturwandel meistern. Jahresgutachten 2019/20 [Dealing with Structural Change. Annual Report 2019/20]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201920.
  84. Aldama, Pierre & Creel, Jérôme, 2022. "Real-time fiscal policy responses in the OECD from 1997 to 2018: Procyclical but sustainable?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
  85. Thomas Lustenberger, 2018. "Has the American Output Growth Path Experienced a Permanent Change?," Working Papers 2018-14, Swiss National Bank.
  86. Michael O’Grady, 2019. "Estimating the Output, Inflation and Unemployment Gaps in Ireland using Bayesian Model Averaging," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 50(1), pages 35-76.
  87. Martin Boďa & Mariana Považanová, 2023. "How credible are Okun coefficients? The gap version of Okun’s law for G7 economies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 1467-1514, June.
  88. Tóth, Máté, 2021. "A multivariate unobserved components model to estimate potential output in the euro area: a production function based approach," Working Paper Series 2523, European Central Bank.
  89. Nataliia Ostapenko, 2022. "Do output gap estimates improve inflation forecasts in Slovakia?," Working and Discussion Papers WP 4/2022, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
  90. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/6gjj4t61tm90aauv9v241g1u29 is not listed on IDEAS
  91. Jean-Marc Fournier & Philipp Lieberknecht, 2020. "A Model-based Fiscal Taylor Rule and a Toolkit to Assess the Fiscal Stance," IMF Working Papers 2020/033, International Monetary Fund.
  92. Arai, Natsuki, 2020. "Investigating the inefficiency of the CBO’s budgetary projections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1290-1300.
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