Real-time analysis of the revisions to the structural position of public finances

Estimating the role of the business cycle on the General Government budget balance plays a key role on the real-time analysis of fiscal policy, especially under the Stability and Growth Pact framework. This paper studies, for a group of EU countries and the United Kingdom, the revisions in the structural balance estimated by the European Commission between its first publication and the most recent figures. The results suggest that revisions were negative (i.e. the budget balance measured ex-post is, on average, less favourable than assessed in real time) and significant for the period prior to 2008, but relatively smaller for later years. Overall, revisions are procyclical but negative on average. Furthermore, data revisions (on public expenditure and revenues as well as GDP growth) are as important as errors in estimating the unobservable potential GDP. According to these findings, the structural efforts required by the EU framework were in general insufficient during the boom up to 2008, since they were based on too optimistic estimates of the structural balances. However, there is no evidence of similar real-time errors in the assessment of fiscal positions during the crisis and the posterior recovery.