IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/indcch/v33y2024i2p363-382..html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Measuring the macroeconomic responses to public investment in innovation: evidence from OECD countries

Author

Listed:
  • Giovanna Ciaffi
  • Matteo Deleidi
  • Mariana Mazzucato

Abstract

The paper aims to assess the macroeconomic impacts of government investment in Research and Development (R&D) and more generic fiscal policies by quantifying the Gross domestic product (GDP) and business R&D investment multipliers. Following the recent literature on fiscal policy, we combine the Local Projection approach with fiscal shocks estimated using Structural Vector Autoregressive modeling by focusing on a panel of 15 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries for the 1981–2017 period. Our findings support the idea that expansionary fiscal policies can positively and persistently affect the GDP level and crowd in business R&D investment. Additionally, our results show that public investment in R&D generates the largest multiplicative effect both on GDP and business R&D than the one associated with more generic public expenditures, even when fiscal expectations are considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Giovanna Ciaffi & Matteo Deleidi & Mariana Mazzucato, 2024. "Measuring the macroeconomic responses to public investment in innovation: evidence from OECD countries," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 33(2), pages 363-382.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:indcch:v:33:y:2024:i:2:p:363-382.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/icc/dtae005
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 1-27, May.
    2. Mariana Mazzucato, 2018. "Mission-oriented innovation policies: challenges and opportunities," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 27(5), pages 803-815.
    3. Nicholas Bloom & John Van Reenen & Heidi Williams, 2019. "A toolkit of policies to promote innovation," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 10.
    4. Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo & Klaassen, Franc, 2009. "Temporal aggregation and SVAR identification, with an application to fiscal policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 253-255, December.
    5. Boehm, Christoph E., 2020. "Government consumption and investment: Does the composition of purchases affect the multiplier?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 80-93.
    6. Sebastian Gechert, 2015. "What fiscal policy is most effective? A meta-regression analysis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(3), pages 553-580.
    7. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Mauricio Ulate, 2017. "Secular Stagnation: Policy Options and the Cyclical Sensitivity in Estimates of Potential Output," Working Papers 01/2017, National Bank of Ukraine.
    8. Daron Acemoglu & Camilo García-Jimeno & James A. Robinson, 2015. "State Capacity and Economic Development: A Network Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(8), pages 2364-2409, August.
    9. Dario Caldara & Christophe Kamps, 2017. "The Analytics of SVARs: A Unified Framework to Measure Fiscal Multipliers," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 84(3), pages 1015-1040.
    10. Gechert, Sebastian & Heimberger, Philipp, 2022. "Do corporate tax cuts boost economic growth?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    11. Fazzari Steven M. & Morley James & Panovska Irina, 2015. "State-dependent effects of fiscal policy," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(3), pages 285-315, June.
    12. Valerie A. Ramey, 2019. "Ten Years after the Financial Crisis: What Have We Learned from the Renaissance in Fiscal Research?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 89-114, Spring.
    13. Mariana Mazzucato, 2016. "From market fixing to market-creating: a new framework for innovation policy," Industry and Innovation, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 140-156, February.
    14. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini & Emanuele Russo, 2021. "Public policies and the art of catching up: matching the historical evidence with a multicountry agent-based model [Catching up, forging ahead, and falling behind]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 30(4), pages 1011-1036.
    15. Aschhoff, Birgit & Sofka, Wolfgang, 2009. "Innovation on demand--Can public procurement drive market success of innovations?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 1235-1247, October.
    16. José García-Quevedo & Gabriele Pellegrino & Maria Savona, 2017. "Reviving demand-pull perspectives: The effect of demand uncertainty and stagnancy on R&D strategy," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 41(4), pages 1087-1122.
    17. Daron Acemoglu & Joshua Linn, 2004. "Market Size in Innovation: Theory and Evidence from the Pharmaceutical Industry," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(3), pages 1049-1090.
    18. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Valentina Colombo & Gabriela Nodari, 2015. "Estimating Fiscal Multipliers: News From A Non‐linear World," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(584), pages 746-776, May.
    19. Fatás, Antonio & Summers, Lawrence H., 2018. "The permanent effects of fiscal consolidations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 238-250.
    20. Giada Di Stefano & Alfonso Gambardella & Gianmario Verona, 2012. "Technology Push and Demand Pull Perspectives in Innovation Studies: Current Findings and Future Research Directions," Post-Print hal-00696607, HAL.
    21. Candelon, Bertrand & Lieb, Lenard, 2013. "Fiscal policy in good and bad times," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2679-2694.
    22. Sebastian Gechert & Ansgar Rannenberg, 2018. "Which Fiscal Multipliers Are Regime‐Dependent? A Meta‐Regression Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(4), pages 1160-1182, September.
    23. Lauren Cohen & Joshua Coval & Christopher Malloy, 2011. "Do Powerful Politicians Cause Corporate Downsizing?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(6), pages 1015-1060.
    24. Mario Alloza, 2022. "Is Fiscal Policy More Effective During Recessions?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1271-1292, August.
    25. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Mauricio Ulate, 2018. "The Cyclical Sensitivity in Estimates of Potential Output," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(2 (Fall)), pages 343-441.
    26. Ha‐Joon Chang & Antonio Andreoni, 2020. "Industrial Policy in the 21st Century," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 51(2), pages 324-351, March.
    27. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    28. Efrem Castelnuovo & Paolo Surico, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Inflation Expectations and The Price Puzzle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(549), pages 1262-1283, December.
    29. Lei Kong, 2020. "Government Spending and Corporate Innovation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(4), pages 1584-1604, April.
    30. Buyse, Tim & Heylen, Freddy & Schoonackers, Ruben, 2020. "On the impact of public policies and wage formation on business investment in research and development," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 188-199.
    31. Benjamin Born & Gernot J. Müller, 2012. "Government Spending Shocks in Quarterly and Annual Time Series," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(2‐3), pages 507-517, March.
    32. Thomas H.W. Ziesemer, 2021. "Mission-oriented R&D and growth," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 460-477, January.
    33. Daron Acemoglu & Jacob Moscona & James A. Robinson, 2016. "State Capacity and American Technology: Evidence from the 19th Century," NBER Working Papers 21932, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    34. Giovanna Ciaffi & Matteo Deleidi & Enrico Sergio Levrero, 2022. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Public Spending in Research and Development: An Initial Exploration for G7 and 15 Oecd Countries," Bulletin of Political Economy, Bulletin of Political Economy, vol. 16(1), pages 1-19, June.
    35. Valerie A. Ramey, 2011. "Can Government Purchases Stimulate the Economy?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 673-685, September.
    36. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    37. Di Stefano, Giada & Gambardella, Alfonso & Verona, Gianmario, 2012. "Technology push and demand pull perspectives in innovation studies: Current findings and future research directions," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(8), pages 1283-1295.
    38. Deleidi, Matteo & Mazzucato, Mariana, 2021. "Directed innovation policies and the supermultiplier: An empirical assessment of mission-oriented policies in the US economy," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(2).
    39. Naqeeb Ur Rehman & Eglantina Hysa & Xuxin Mao, 2020. "Does public R&D complement or crowd-out private R&D in pre and post economic crisis of 2008?," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 349-371, January.
    40. Kilian,Lutz & Lütkepohl,Helmut, 2018. "Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107196575, October.
    41. Foray, D. & Mowery, D.C. & Nelson, R.R., 2012. "Public R&D and social challenges: What lessons from mission R&D programs?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(10), pages 1697-1702.
    42. Lichtenberg, Frank R, 1984. "The Relationship between Federal Contract R&D and Company R&D," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 73-78, May.
    43. Matteo Deleidi, 2022. "Quantifying multipliers in Italy: does fiscal policy composition matter? [The macroeconomic effects of public investment: Evidence from advanced economies]," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(2), pages 359-381.
    44. Valerie A. Ramey & Sarah Zubairy, 2018. "Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from US Historical Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 850-901.
    45. Daron Acemoglu & Jacob Moscona & James A. Robinson, 2016. "State Capacity and American Technology: Evidence from the Nineteenth Century," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 61-67, May.
    46. Olivier J Blanchard & Daniel Leigh, 2014. "Learning about Fiscal Multipliers from Growth Forecast Errors," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 62(2), pages 179-212, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Giovanna Ciaffi & Matteo Deleidi & Enrico Sergio Levrero, 2022. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Public Spending in Research and Development: An Initial Exploration for G7 and 15 Oecd Countries," Bulletin of Political Economy, Bulletin of Political Economy, vol. 16(1), pages 1-19, June.
    2. Barbieri Góes, Maria Cristina & Deleidi, Matteo, 2022. "Output determination and autonomous demand multipliers: An empirical investigation for the US economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    3. Deleidi, Matteo & Mazzucato, Mariana, 2021. "Directed innovation policies and the supermultiplier: An empirical assessment of mission-oriented policies in the US economy," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(2).
    4. Francesco Simone Lucidi, 2023. "The misalignment of fiscal multipliers in Italian regions," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(10), pages 2073-2086, October.
    5. Matteo Deleidi & Davide Romaniello & Francesca Tosi, 2021. "Quantifying fiscal multipliers in Italy: A Panel SVAR analysis using regional data," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(5), pages 1158-1177, October.
    6. Ciaffi, Giovanna & Deleidi, Matteo & Di Bucchianico, Stefano, 2024. "Stagnation despite ongoing innovation: Is R&D expenditure composition a missing link? An empirical analysis for the US (1948–2019)," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    7. Konstantinou, Panagiotis Th. & Partheniou, Andromachi, 2021. "The Effects of Government Spending Over the Business Cycle: A Disaggregated Analysis for OECD and Non-OECD Countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 809-822.
    8. Deleidi, Matteo & Iafrate, Francesca & Levrero, Enrico Sergio, 2020. "Public investment fiscal multipliers: An empirical assessment for European countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 354-365.
    9. Goemans, Pascal & Belke, Ansgar, 2019. "Uncertainty and non-linear macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in the US: A SEIVAR-based analysis," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203538, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    10. Goemans, Pascal, 2023. "The impact of public consumption and investment in the euro area during periods of high and normal uncertainty," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    11. Valerie A. Ramey, 2019. "Ten Years after the Financial Crisis: What Have We Learned from the Renaissance in Fiscal Research?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 89-114, Spring.
    12. Ansgar Belke & Pascal Goemans, 2021. "Uncertainty and nonlinear macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in the US: a SEIVAR-based analysis," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 49(4), pages 623-646, May.
    13. Fabrice Dabiré & Hashmat Khan & Patrick Richard & Jean-François Rouillard, 2021. "Characterizing G-multipliers in Canada," Cahiers de recherche 21-01, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke, revised Mar 2023.
    14. Angela Köppl & Margit Schratzenstaller, 2022. "Macroeconomic Effects of Green Recovery Programmes. Conceptual Framing and a Review of the Empirical Literature," WIFO Working Papers 646, WIFO.
    15. Kang, Jihye & Kim, Soyoung, 2022. "Government spending news and surprise shocks: It’s the timing and persistence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    16. Mr. Tidiane Kinda & Andras Lengyel & Kaustubh Chahande, 2022. "Fiscal Multipliers During Pandemics," IMF Working Papers 2022/149, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Yasuharu Iwata & Hirokuni IIboshi, 2023. "The Nexus between Public Debt and the Government Spending Multiplier: Fiscal Adjustments Matter," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(4), pages 830-858, August.
    18. Haug, Alfred A. & Sznajderska, Anna, 2024. "Government spending multipliers: Is there a difference between government consumption and investment purchases?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    19. Saccone, Donatella & Posta, Pompeo Della & Marelli, Enrico & Signorelli, Marcello, 2022. "Public investment multipliers by functions of government: An empirical analysis for European countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 531-545.
    20. Matteo Deleidi & Mariana Mazzucato, 2019. "Mission-Oriented Innovation Policies: A Theoretical And Empirical Assessment For The Us Economy," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0248, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:indcch:v:33:y:2024:i:2:p:363-382.. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://academic.oup.com/icc .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.