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Are inflation and economic activity out of sync in the euro area?

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  • N. Cordemans
  • J. Wauters

Abstract

Why does inflation remain low despite the economic recovery?

Suggested Citation

  • N. Cordemans & J. Wauters, 2018. "Are inflation and economic activity out of sync in the euro area?," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 79-96, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbb:ecrart:y:2018:m:june:i:i:p:79-96
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Joshua C. C. Chan & Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2016. "A Bounded Model of Time Variation in Trend Inflation, Nairu and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 551-565, April.
    2. Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine & Holtemöller, Oliver, 2017. "Inflation dynamics during the financial crisis in Europe: Cross-sectional identification of long-run inflation expectations," IWH Discussion Papers 10/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    3. M. Deroose & A. Stevens, 2017. "Low inflation in the euro area : Causes and consequences," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 111-125, June.
    4. A. W. Phillips, 1958. "The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861–1957," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 25(100), pages 283-299, November.
    5. A. Stevens, 2013. "What inflation developments reveal about the Phillips curve: implications for monetary policy," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iii, pages 67-76, December.
    6. Jeffrey M. Lacker & John A. Weinberg, 2007. "Inflation and unemployment: a layperson's guide to the Phillips curve," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 93(Sum), pages 201-227.
    7. Blanchard, Oliver & Cerutti, Eugenio & SUmmers, Lawrence, 2015. "Inflation and Activity - Two Explorations and Their Monetary Policy Implications," Working Paper Series 15-070, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    8. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Mauricio Ulate, 2018. "The Cyclical Sensitivity in Estimates of Potential Output," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(2 (Fall)), pages 343-441.
    9. Robert J. Gordon, 2011. "The History of the Phillips Curve: Consensus and Bifurcation," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(309), pages 10-50, January.
    10. Tim Mahedy & Adam Hale Shapiro, 2017. "What's Down with Inflation?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    11. J. Boeckx & P. Butzen & N. Cordemans & S. Ide, 2015. "Deflation in Japan, Abenomics and lessons for the euro area," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 100-124, June.
    12. Marianna Riggi & Fabrizio Venditti, 2015. "Failing to Forecast Low Inflation and Phillips Curve Instability: A Euro-Area Perspective," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 47-68, March.
    13. Matheson, Troy & Stavrev, Emil, 2013. "The Great Recession and the inflation puzzle," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(3), pages 468-472.
    14. Mr. Gee Hee Hong & Zsoka Koczan & Weicheng Lian & Mr. Malhar S Nabar, 2018. "More Slack than Meets the Eye? Recent Wage Dynamics in Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 2018/050, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fabian Eser & Peter Karadi & Philip R. Lane & Laura Moretti & Chiara Osbat, 2020. "The Phillips Curve at the ECB," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(S1), pages 50-85, September.
    2. Limi Kouotou, Hibrahim & Atangana Ondoa, Henri, 2023. "Africa's natural resource curse: Does the arrival of new heads of state break the spell?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    3. Arnoud Stevens & Joris Wauters, 2021. "Is euro area lowflation here to stay? Insights from a time‐varying parameter model with survey data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 566-586, August.
    4. Hibrahim, Limi Kouotou & Epo, Boniface Ngah, 2023. "Duration of Heads of State in Power and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Economic Development, The Economic Research Institute, Chung-Ang University, vol. 48(1), pages 145-172, March.
    5. M. Deroose & A. Rannenberg & J. Wauters, 2019. "Separating the trend from the cycle : The debate on euro area potential output and implications for monetary policy," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue ii, pages 7-28, September.
    6. B. De Backer & A. Stevens & J. Wauters & H. Zimmer, 2023. "Inflation expectations and monetary policy," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, pages 1-38, October.

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