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A universal pattern of mortality decline in the G7 countries

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  1. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2009-008 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Hong Li & Yang Lu & Pintao Lyu, 2021. "Coherent Mortality Forecasting for Less Developed Countries," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-21, August.
  3. Booth, Heather, 2006. "Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 547-581.
  4. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence J Kotlikoff, 2006. "Will China Eat Our Lunch or Take Us to Dinner? Simulating the Transition Paths of the US, EU, Japan and China," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Christopher Kent & Anna Park & Daniel Rees (ed.),Demography and Financial Markets, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  5. Melnikov, Alexander & Romaniuk, Yulia, 2006. "Evaluating the performance of Gompertz, Makeham and Lee-Carter mortality models for risk management with unit-linked contracts," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 310-329, December.
  6. Michel Denuit, 2009. "Life Anuities with Stochastic Survival Probabilities: A Review," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 463-489, September.
  7. Wong, Jackie S.T. & Forster, Jonathan J. & Smith, Peter W.F., 2018. "Bayesian mortality forecasting with overdispersion," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 206-221.
  8. Li, Johnny Siu-Hang & Liu, Yanxin & Chan, Wai-Sum, 2023. "Hedging longevity risk under non-Gaussian state-space stochastic mortality models: A mean-variance-skewness-kurtosis approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 96-121.
  9. Katja Hanewald & Thomas Post & Helmut Gründl, 2011. "Stochastic Mortality, Macroeconomic Risks and Life Insurer Solvency," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 36(3), pages 458-475, July.
  10. Nico Keilman & Dinh Quang Pham & Arve Hetland, 2002. "Why population forecasts should be probabilistic - illustrated by the case of Norway," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(15), pages 409-454.
  11. Shripad Tuljapurkar & Ryan Edwards, 2011. "Variance in death and its implications for modeling and forecasting mortality," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 24(21), pages 497-526.
  12. Jokisch, Sabine & Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 2007. "Simulating the Dynamic Macroeconomic and Microeconomic Effects of the FairTax," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 60(2), pages 225-252, June.
  13. Fehr, Hans & Jokisch, Sabine & Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 2008. "Fertility, mortality and the developed world's demographic transition," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 455-473.
  14. Joel E. Cohen, 2001. "World population in 2050: assessing the projections," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 46.
  15. Han Lin Shang, 2012. "Point and interval forecasts of age-specific life expectancies," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 27(21), pages 593-644.
  16. Basellini, Ugofilippo & Camarda, Carlo Giovanni & Booth, Heather, 2022. "Thirty years on: A review of the Lee-Carter method for forecasting mortality," SocArXiv 8u34d, Center for Open Science.
  17. Adrian Raftery & Jennifer Chunn & Patrick Gerland & Hana Ševčíková, 2013. "Bayesian Probabilistic Projections of Life Expectancy for All Countries," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(3), pages 777-801, June.
  18. Chia, Ngee-Choon & Tsui, Albert K.C., 2005. "Medical savings accounts in Singapore: how much is adequate?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 855-875, September.
  19. Jarner, Søren Fiig & Kronborg, Morten Tolver, 2016. "Entrance times of random walks: With applications to pension fund modeling," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1-20.
  20. Friedberg Leora & Webb Anthony, 2007. "Life Is Cheap: Using Mortality Bonds to Hedge Aggregate Mortality Risk," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-33, July.
  21. Geert Zittersteyn & Jennifer Alonso-García, 2021. "Common Factor Cause-Specific Mortality Model," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-30, December.
  22. Heather Booth & Rob Hyndman & Leonie Tickle & Piet de Jong, 2006. "Lee-Carter mortality forecasting: a multi-country comparison of variants and extensions," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 15(9), pages 289-310.
  23. Hyndman, Rob J. & Booth, Heather, 2008. "Stochastic population forecasts using functional data models for mortality, fertility and migration," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 323-342.
  24. Rokas Gylys & Jonas Šiaulys, 2019. "Revisiting Calibration of the Solvency II Standard Formula for Mortality Risk: Does the Standard Stress Scenario Provide an Adequate Approximation of Value-at-Risk?," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-24, May.
  25. Hong Li & Johnny Siu-Hang Li, 2017. "Optimizing the Lee-Carter Approach in the Presence of Structural Changes in Time and Age Patterns of Mortality Improvements," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(3), pages 1073-1095, June.
  26. Duncan Gillespie & Meredith Trotter & Shripad Tuljapurkar, 2014. "Divergence in Age Patterns of Mortality Change Drives International Divergence in Lifespan Inequality," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(3), pages 1003-1017, June.
  27. Hatzopoulos, P. & Haberman, S., 2009. "A parameterized approach to modeling and forecasting mortality," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 103-123, February.
  28. Ryan D. Edwards & Ronald D. Lee, 2001. "The fiscal impact of population change," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 46.
  29. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 2011. "A Dynamic Extension of the Period Life Table," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 24(34), pages 831-854.
  30. Renshaw, A.E. & Haberman, S., 2006. "A cohort-based extension to the Lee-Carter model for mortality reduction factors," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 556-570, June.
  31. Hunt, Andrew & Villegas, Andrés M., 2015. "Robustness and convergence in the Lee–Carter model with cohort effects," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 186-202.
  32. Bernhard Babel & Eckart Bomsdorf & Rafael Schmidt, 2008. "Forecasting German mortality using panel data procedures," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 21(3), pages 541-555, July.
  33. Szymański Andrzej & Rossa Agnieszka, 2021. "The Complex-Number Mortality Model (CNMM) based on orthonormal expansion of membership functions," Statistics in Transition New Series, Statistics Poland, vol. 22(3), pages 31-57, September.
  34. Wilson, Chris, 2002. "Forecast errors in global population projections: implications for food," 2002 Conference (46th), February 13-15, 2002, Canberra, Australia 125608, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  35. Ngee-Choon Chia & Albert K C Tsui, 2005. "Reverse Mortgages as Retirement Financing Instrument : An Option for “Asset-rich and Cash-poor†Singaporeans," Finance Working Papers 22566, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  36. Granados, José A. Tapia, 2010. "Politics and health in eight European countries: A comparative study of mortality decline under social democracies and right-wing governments," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 71(5), pages 841-850, September.
  37. de Jong, Piet & Tickle, Leonie & Xu, Jianhui, 2020. "A more meaningful parameterization of the Lee–Carter model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 1-8.
  38. Post, Thomas & Hanewald, Katja, 2013. "Longevity risk, subjective survival expectations, and individual saving behavior," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 200-220.
  39. Jackie Li, 2014. "An application of MCMC simulation in mortality projection for populations with limited data," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 30(1), pages 1-48.
  40. Bloom, D.E. & Luca, D.L., 2016. "The Global Demography of Aging," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 3-56, Elsevier.
  41. Alyson van Raalte & Mikko Myrskylä & Pekka Martikainen, 2015. "The role of smoking on mortality compression," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 32(20), pages 589-620.
  42. S. Haberman & A. E. Renshaw, 2009. "Measurement of Longevity Risk Using Bootstrapping for Lee–Carter and Generalised Linear Poisson Models of Mortality," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 443-461, September.
  43. Jackie Li & Jia Liu & Adam Butt, 2024. "A systematic vector autoregressive framework for modeling and forecasting mortality," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 2279-2297, September.
  44. Giacometti, Rosella & Bertocchi, Marida & Rachev, Svetlozar T. & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2012. "A comparison of the Lee–Carter model and AR–ARCH model for forecasting mortality rates," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 85-93.
  45. Missov, Trifon I. & Lenart, Adam, 2013. "Gompertz–Makeham life expectancies: Expressions and applications," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 29-35.
  46. Joshua R. Goldstein, 2006. "Found in translation?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 14(5), pages 71-84.
  47. Kirill F. Andreev, 2000. "Sex differentials in survival in the Canadian population, 1921-1997," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 3(12).
  48. Kam-Ki Tang & Benjamin ShiJie Wong, "undated". "The Ageing, Longevity and Crowding Out Effects on Private and Public Savings: Evidence from Dynamic Panel Analysis," MRG Discussion Paper Series 3409, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
  49. Andrzej Szymański & Agnieszka Rossa, 2021. "The Complex-Number Mortality Model (CNMM) based on orthonormal expansion of membership function," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 22(3), pages 31-57, September.
  50. Hanewald, Katja, 2009. "Lee-Carter and the macroeconomy," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2009-008, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
  51. de Jong, Piet & Tickle, Leonie & Xu, Jianhui, 2016. "Coherent modeling of male and female mortality using Lee–Carter in a complex number framework," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 130-137.
  52. Jackie Li & Leonie Tickle & Nick Parr, 2016. "A multi-population evaluation of the Poisson common factor model for projecting mortality jointly for both sexes," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 333-360, December.
  53. Blake, David & Dowd, Kevin & Cairns, Andrew J.G., 2008. "Longevity risk and the Grim Reaper's toxic tail: The survivor fan charts," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 1062-1066, June.
  54. Ngee-Choon Chia & Albert K C Tsui, 2005. "Reverse Mortgages as Retirement Financing Instrument: An Option for “Asset-rich and Cash-poor” Singaporeans," SCAPE Policy Research Working Paper Series 0503, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics, SCAPE.
  55. OlaOluwa S. Yaya & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Acheampong Y. Amoateng, 2019. "Under-5 Mortality Rates in G7 Countries: Analysis of Fractional Persistence, Structural Breaks and Nonlinear Time Trends," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 35(4), pages 675-694, October.
  56. Basellini, Ugofilippo & Camarda, Carlo Giovanni & Booth, Heather, 2023. "Thirty years on: A review of the Lee–Carter method for forecasting mortality," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1033-1049.
  57. F. Peters & J. P. Mackenbach & W. J. Nusselder, 2016. "Does the Impact of the Tobacco Epidemic Explain Structural Changes in the Decline of Mortality?," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 32(5), pages 687-702, December.
  58. Frederico M. Bublitz & Arlene Oetomo & Kirti S. Sahu & Amethyst Kuang & Laura X. Fadrique & Pedro E. Velmovitsky & Raphael M. Nobrega & Plinio P. Morita, 2019. "Disruptive Technologies for Environment and Health Research: An Overview of Artificial Intelligence, Blockchain, and Internet of Things," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(20), pages 1-24, October.
  59. Ram C. Kafle & Netra Khanal & Chris P. Tsokos, 2014. "Bayesian age-stratified joinpoint regression model: an application to lung and brain cancer mortality," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(12), pages 2727-2742, December.
  60. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2009-015 is not listed on IDEAS
  61. Lanfiuti Baldi, Giacomo & NIGRI, ANDREA, 2023. "An Age-Period-Cohort model for gender gap in youth mortality," OSF Preprints z3qmw, Center for Open Science.
  62. Patrizio Vanella & Ugofilippo Basellini & Berit Lange, 2020. "Assessing Excess Mortality in Times of Pandemics Based on Principal Component Analysis of Weekly Mortality Data -- The Case of COVID-19," Working Papers axbhmxrs-o0viyh9z07m, French Institute for Demographic Studies.
  63. Han Lin Shang & Rob J Hyndman & Heather Booth, 2010. "A comparison of ten principal component methods for forecasting mortality rates," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 8/10, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  64. Jarner, Søren F. & Jallbjørn, Snorre, 2020. "Pitfalls and merits of cointegration-based mortality models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 80-93.
  65. Chia, Ngee-Choon & Tsui, Albert K.C., 2005. "Medical savings accounts in Singapore: how much is adequate?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 855-875, September.
  66. Ainhoa-Elena Léger & Stefano Mazzuco, 2021. "What Can We Learn from the Functional Clustering of Mortality Data? An Application to the Human Mortality Database," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(4), pages 769-798, November.
  67. Pieter van Baal & Frederik Peters & Johan Mackenbach & Wilma Nusselder, 2016. "Forecasting differences in life expectancy by education," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 70(2), pages 201-216, May.
  68. Ronald Lee & Ryan Edwards, 2002. "The Fiscal Effects of Population Aging in the US: Assessing the Uncertainties," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 16, pages 141-180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  69. Rokas Gylys & Jonas Šiaulys, 2020. "Estimation of Uncertainty in Mortality Projections Using State-Space Lee-Carter Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(7), pages 1-23, June.
  70. Renshaw, A. E. & Haberman, S., 2003. "On the forecasting of mortality reduction factors," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 379-401, July.
  71. Rembrandt D. Scholz & Heiner Maier, 2003. "German unification and the plasticity of mortality at older ages," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2003-031, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
  72. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2005. "Will China Eat Our Lunch or Take Us Out to Dinner? Simulating the Transition Paths of the U.S., EU, Japan, and China," NBER Working Papers 11668, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  73. Wolfgang P. Lutz, 2001. "World population in 2050: assessing the projections: discussion," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 46.
  74. Michaud, Pierre-Carl & Goldman, Dana & Lakdawalla, Darius & Gailey, Adam & Zheng, Yuhui, 2011. "Differences in health between Americans and Western Europeans: Effects on longevity and public finance," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 254-263, July.
  75. Tomblin Murphy, Gail & Kephart, George & Lethbridge, Lynn & O'Brien-Pallas, Linda & Birch, Stephen, 2009. "Planning for what? Challenging the assumptions of health human resources planning," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(2-3), pages 225-233, October.
  76. Han Lin Shang & Heather Booth & Rob Hyndman, 2011. "Point and interval forecasts of mortality rates and life expectancy: A comparison of ten principal component methods," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 25(5), pages 173-214.
  77. Missov, Trifon I. & Finkelstein, Maxim, 2011. "Admissible mixing distributions for a general class of mixture survival models with known asymptotics," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 64-70.
  78. Kevin Dowd & David Blake & Andrew J. G. Cairns, 2016. "The Myth of Methuselah and the Uncertainty of Death: The Mortality Fan Charts," Risks, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-7, July.
  79. Andrea Nigri & Elisabetta Barbi & Susanna Levantesi, 2022. "The relay for human longevity: country-specific contributions to the increase of the best-practice life expectancy," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 4061-4073, December.
  80. Christina Bohk-Ewald & Roland Rau & Joel E. Cohen, 2015. "Taylor's power law in human mortality," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 33(21), pages 589-610.
  81. Benjamin Seligman & Gabi Greenberg & Shripad Tuljapurkar, 2016. "Convergence in male and female life expectancy: Direction, age pattern, and causes," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 34(38), pages 1063-1074.
  82. Renshaw, A. E. & Haberman, S., 2003. "Lee-Carter mortality forecasting with age-specific enhancement," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 255-272, October.
  83. He, Lingyu & Huang, Fei & Shi, Jianjie & Yang, Yanrong, 2021. "Mortality forecasting using factor models: Time-varying or time-invariant factor loadings?," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 14-34.
  84. Nan Li & Ronald Lee & Patrick Gerland, 2013. "Extending the Lee-Carter Method to Model the Rotation of Age Patterns of Mortality Decline for Long-Term Projections," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(6), pages 2037-2051, December.
  85. Torben M. Andersen & Giuseppe Bertola & John Driffill & Harold James & Hans-Werner Sinn & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Branko Uroševic, 2016. "Chapter 2: Intergenerational Fairness," EEAG Report on the European Economy, CESifo, vol. 0, pages 54-69, February.
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