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Planning for what? Challenging the assumptions of health human resources planning

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  • Tomblin Murphy, Gail
  • Kephart, George
  • Lethbridge, Lynn
  • O'Brien-Pallas, Linda
  • Birch, Stephen

Abstract

Objectives Health human resource planning has traditionally been based on simple models of demographic changes applied to observed levels of service utilization or provider supply. No consideration has been given to the implications of changing levels of need within populations over time. Recently, needs based resource planning models have been suggested that incorporate changes in needs for care explicitly as a determinant of health care needs.Methods In this paper, population indicators of morbidity, mortality and self-assessed health are analyzed to determine if health care needs have changed across birth cohorts in Canada from 1994 to 2005 among older age groups. Multivariate regression analysis was used to estimate the age pattern of health by birth year with interaction terms included to examine whether the association of age with health was conditional on the birth year.Results Results indicate that while the probability of mortality, mobility problems and pain rises with age, the rate of change is greater for those born earlier. The probability of self-assessed poor health increases with age but the rate of change with age is constant across birth years.Conclusions Even in the short time period covered, our analysis shows that health care needs by age are changing over time in Canada.

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  • Tomblin Murphy, Gail & Kephart, George & Lethbridge, Lynn & O'Brien-Pallas, Linda & Birch, Stephen, 2009. "Planning for what? Challenging the assumptions of health human resources planning," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(2-3), pages 225-233, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:hepoli:v:92:y:2009:i:2-3:p:225-233
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    Cited by:

    1. Mason, Thomas & Sutton, Matt & Whittaker, William & Birch, Stephen, 2015. "Exploring the limitations of age-based models for health care planning," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 11-19.
    2. Stephen Birch, 2015. "Improving the Fiscal and Political Sustainability of Health Systems through Integrated Population Needs-Based Planning," Seminar Briefing 001616, Office of Health Economics.
    3. Stephen Birch & Gail Tomblin Murphy & Adrian MacKenzie & William Whittaker & Thomas Mason, 2017. "Will the Need‐Based Planning of Health Human Resources Currently Undertaken in Several Countries Lead to Excess Supply and Inefficiency? A Comment on Basu and Pak," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 818-821, June.
    4. Tomblin Murphy, Gail & Birch, Stephen & MacKenzie, Adrian & Alder, Rob & Lethbridge, Lynn & Little, Lisa, 2012. "Eliminating the shortage of registered nurses in Canada: An exercise in applied needs-based planning," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(2), pages 192-202.
    5. James Avoka Asamani & Christmal Dela Christmals & Gerda Marie Reitsma, 2021. "Modelling the supply and need for health professionals for primary health care in Ghana: Implications for health professions education and employment planning," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(9), pages 1-26, September.
    6. Whittaker, William & Birch, Stephen & MacKenzie, Adrian & Murphy, Gail Tomblin, 2016. "Cohort effects on the need for health care and implications for health care planning in Canada," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 81-88.
    7. James Avoka Asamani & Christmal Dela Christmals & Gerda Marie Reitsma, 2021. "Advancing the Population Needs-Based Health Workforce Planning Methodology: A Simulation Tool for Country Application," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(4), pages 1-20, February.
    8. Zuraida Abal Abas & Mohamad Raziff Ramli & Mohamad Ishak Desa & Nordin Saleh & Ainul Nadziha Hanafiah & Nuraini Aziz & Zaheera Zainal Abidin & Abdul Samad Shibghatullah & Ahmad Fadzli Nizam Abdul Rahm, 2018. "A supply model for nurse workforce projection in Malaysia," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 573-586, December.
    9. Kuhlmann, Ellen & Batenburg, Ronald & Groenewegen, Peter P. & Larsen, Christa, 2013. "Bringing a European perspective to the health human resources debate: A scoping study," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 6-13.
    10. Newbold, K.Bruce & Simone, Dylan, 2015. "Comparing disability amongst immigrants and native-born in Canada," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 53-62.

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