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Measurement of Longevity Risk Using Bootstrapping for Lee–Carter and Generalised Linear Poisson Models of Mortality

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  • S. Haberman

    (City University)

  • A. E. Renshaw

    (City University)

Abstract

This paper provides a comparative investigation of simulation strategies for measuring the longevity risk associated with predictions of mortality rates and derived estimates of life expectancy. The study considers the Lee–Carter framework and a generalised linear Poisson model for representing the dynamics of mortality, as well as enhancements that allow for joint modelling of the dispersion and the effect of using a negative binomial rather than a Poisson assumption.

Suggested Citation

  • S. Haberman & A. E. Renshaw, 2009. "Measurement of Longevity Risk Using Bootstrapping for Lee–Carter and Generalised Linear Poisson Models of Mortality," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 443-461, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:metcap:v:11:y:2009:i:3:d:10.1007_s11009-008-9100-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11009-008-9100-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arthur Renshaw & Steven Haberman, 2003. "Lee–Carter mortality forecasting: a parallel generalized linear modelling approach for England and Wales mortality projections," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 52(1), pages 119-137, January.
    2. Hélène Cossette & Antoine Delwarde & Michel Denuit & Frédérick Guillot & Étienne Marceau, 2007. "Pension Plan Valuation and Mortality Projection," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 1-34.
    3. Shripad Tuljapurkar & Nan Li & Carl Boe, 2000. "A universal pattern of mortality decline in the G7 countries," Nature, Nature, vol. 405(6788), pages 789-792, June.
    4. Renshaw, A.E. & Haberman, S., 2008. "On simulation-based approaches to risk measurement in mortality with specific reference to Poisson Lee-Carter modelling," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 797-816, April.
    5. Renshaw, A.E. & Haberman, S., 2006. "A cohort-based extension to the Lee-Carter model for mortality reduction factors," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 556-570, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Leng, Xuan & Peng, Liang, 2016. "Inference pitfalls in Lee–Carter model for forecasting mortality," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 58-65.

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