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Simulating the Dynamic Macroeconomic and Microeconomic Effects of the FairTax

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  • Jokisch, Sabine
  • Kotlikoff, Laurence J.

Abstract

America's aging coupled with high and growing old–age health and pension benefits augers for much higher payroll taxes, with damaging effects on the U.S. economy. This prognosis is supported by our analysis of a detailed dynamic life–cycle general equilibrium model. The FairTax, which proposes to replace the federal payroll, personal income, corporate income, and estate tax with a progressive consumption tax, offers a potential alternative to this dismal economic future. According to our simulation model, these policy changes would lead to major improvements in the U.S. capital stock, long–run real wages and the well–being of the majority of Americans.

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  • Jokisch, Sabine & Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 2007. "Simulating the Dynamic Macroeconomic and Microeconomic Effects of the FairTax," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 60(2), pages 225-252, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ntj:journl:v:60:y:2007:i:2:p:225-52
    DOI: 10.17310/ntj.2007.2.04
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    Cited by:

    1. Yingxu Kuang & Ted Englebrecht & Otis W. Gilley, 2011. "A Distributional Analysis of the FairTax Plan: Annual and Lifetime Income Considerations," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 78(2), pages 358-381, October.
    2. Zodrow, George R. & Diamond, John W., 2013. "Dynamic Overlapping Generations Computable General Equilibrium Models and the Analysis of Tax Policy: The Diamond–Zodrow Model," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 743-813, Elsevier.
    3. Keshab Bhattarai & Jonathan Haughton & David G. Tuerck, 2016. "The economic effects of the fair tax: analysis of results of a dynamic CGE model of the US economy," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 451-466, July.
    4. William Gale & Kyle Pomerleau, 2023. "Response," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 862-864, June.
    5. M Saifur Rahman, 2008. "Should Dynamic Scoring be done with Heterogeneous Agent-Based Models? Challenging the Conventional Wisdom," Caepr Working Papers 2008-023, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
    6. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & David Rapson, 2005. "Comparing Average and Marginal Tax Rates Under the FairTax and the Current System of Federal Taxation," NBER Working Papers 11831, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Paul Bachman & Jonathan Haughton & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Alfonso Sanchez-Penalver & David G. Tuerck, 2006. "Taxing Sales Under the FairTax: What Rate Works?," NBER Working Papers 12732, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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